The Official Golf Thread

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Would you say there's a reason for the gap between the majors and non majors?

Variance, or is your model more suited to top level events? Bit of both?

 

[Philby]

Would you say there's a reason for the gap between the majors and non majors?

Variance, or is your model more suited to top level events? Bit of both?

A very good question and can't say I know for sure. But a few thoughts come to mind...

- Variance has to play a part in this volume of bets. Maybe even a pretty big part.

- If we assume that, at the upper end of the game, players are more consistent then perhaps that means metrics-based models can be a bit more predictive/reliable?

- At the lowest quality events sometimes you're working off a small-ish sample size of events per player.

- Relatively recently I introduced a fairly heavily weighted model input around player's recent form (and the relative quality of the event). It was present for all 4 majors but only a subset of the bog standard events

- I bet on the top 10/20/30/40 markets more for the majors than for the bog standard events

- Even though Scheffler was rated hands-down the best by my model almost every time I didn't back him that often, because his odds were so skinny. He's won 6 of his last 11 tournaments. My model tries to identify guys whose odds are too long relative to their rating - it doesn't (yet) guide me on whether the highest rank player is value or not at a certain price

 

[Philby]

3M Open this week.

I'm on the following:





A mix of (a) top of the market (b) golfers my model rates and (c) guys who look value at their current price

 

[jeepers]

I'm not at all supportive of the Open being in Ireland, unless the R&A is looking to expand it to other countries, as well.

Govt to explore potential of hosting Open Championship

The government has announced its intention to explore the possibility of hosting the Open Championship and the AIG Women's Open in Portmarnock Golf Club.

www.rte.ie

 

[Philby]

3M Open this week.

I'm on the following:

View attachment 34810

View attachment 34808

A mix of (a) top of the market (b) golfers my model rates and (c) guys who look value at their current price

View attachment 34809

Well, lookie here who is first round leader. The guy with the biggest differential between his Betfair odds and my model rankings.

He's in from 490.0 to 25.0 to win outright. I'm just hoping that he can hang on for a top 20/30. In tournaments where he misses the cut he tends to have a decent shot at top 30 at least.

Jacob Bridgeman shoots 8-under 63 at TPC Twin Cities to take 3M Open lead - PGA TOUR

BLAINE, Minn. (AP) — Jacob Bridgeman birdied five of his last seven holes for an 8-under 63 and a one-stroke lead over Mackenzie Hughes on Thursday after the fi

www.pgatour.com

 

[greengrass]

I'm not at all supportive of the Open being in Ireland, unless the R&A is looking to expand it to other countries, as well.

Govt to explore potential of hosting Open Championship

The government has announced its intention to explore the possibility of hosting the Open Championship and the AIG Women's Open in Portmarnock Golf Club.

www.rte.ie

If we can qmake money out of it, ok, but taxpayers money to that shower of elites, no thank you.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Well, lookie here who is first round leader. The guy with the biggest differential between his Betfair odds and my model rankings.

He's in from 490.0 to 25.0 to win outright. I'm just hoping that he can hang on for a top 20/30. In tournaments where he misses the cut he tends to have a decent shot at top 30 at least.

Jacob Bridgeman shoots 8-under 63 at TPC Twin Cities to take 3M Open lead - PGA TOUR

BLAINE, Minn. (AP) — Jacob Bridgeman birdied five of his last seven holes for an 8-under 63 and a one-stroke lead over Mackenzie Hughes on Thursday after the fi

www.pgatour.com

Novak in third too. Good start. Of course, I never followed you in this week.

Would you not be sick enough if one of your huge price picks wins a tournament and you only backed the measly top 20 or 30?

 

[Philby]

Would you not be sick enough if one of your huge price picks wins a tournament and you only backed the measly top 20 or 30?

Not so much tbh. I'd be gutted if I didn't back him at all...but to keep on the right side of variance you need to draw the line somewhere.

In very few cases will a 490.0 shot end up in genuine contention come Sunday. Not to mind win it. Even after that great first round Bridgeman is still only a 15/1-20/1 shot (DataGolf vs Betfair).

The way I look at it - with Bridgeman, the odds made him the 92nd best player in the field and my model made him the 19th best. It would be a hell of an achievement for him if he out-performed the weight of money and finished in or around that 20th spot. I'd rather be cheering on one of those landing every 2 or 3 tournaments than go a whole year (or more) potentially watching those long odds win-only bets go down the tubes.

Also, if I'm honest...iI I had backed Bridgeman at 490.0 I'd be severely tempted to jusy walk away and take the profit after round #1.

That said...before tee-off I did have a small stakes win-only bet on Ben Silverman who was also a big price (180.0) - as he was more in the sweet spot of chunky price and high rating (only 3 players had a materially higher rating than him in my model).

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Not so much tbh. I'd be gutted if I didn't back him at all...but to keep on the right side of variance you need to draw the line somewhere.

In very few cases will a 490.0 shot end up in genuine contention come Sunday. Not to mind win it. Even after that great first round Bridgeman is still only a 15/1-20/1 shot (DataGolf vs Betfair).

The way I look at it - with Bridgeman, the odds made him the 92nd best player in the field and my model made him the 19th best. It would be a hell of an achievement for him if he out-performed the weight of money and finished in or around that 20th spot. I'd rather be cheering on one of those landing every 2 or 3 tournaments than go a whole year (or more) potentially watching those long odds win-only bets go down the tubes.

Also, if I'm honest...iI I had backed Bridgeman at 490.0 I'd be severely tempted to jusy walk away and take the profit after round #1.

That said...before tee-off I did have a small stakes win-only bet on Ben Silverman who was also a big price (180.0) - as he was more in the sweet spot of chunky price and high rating (only 3 players had a materially higher rating than him in my model).

It would probably be worth it to do both though. Maybe back the win for a few coppers on the Exchange.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Novak going along nicely too today. Currently leading on -10.