The Official Golf Thread

[J.R.R. hartley]

He's an ignorant man,that's it.

Yeah, he's a real prick.

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[longbigandjuicy]

Yeah, he's a real prick.

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I've heard these stories about Lowry loads of times. He's a very generous guy. Golf is fu*king hard sometimes and yesterday was one of the hardest. Most of us would have lost our cool playing yesterday in the conditions. Toughest back 9 I think I've ever seen. A worry for him is that He does blow up pretty spectacular when in contention.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Yeah, he's a real prick.

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Don't mind the trolls and their disrespect for this islands second greatest ever golfer (after Padraig ofc)

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

I don't usually after time, but had Lowry each way (nothing unusual there, I often have him). Saturday was rough, and I didn't see one minute of it yesterday, obviously, but looks like he gave it a good shot to get back to four under?

 

[TonyCork80]

Good luck to Lowry he's a superb player but I reckon if he had a bit more control over himself and his emotions he'd be consistently in the world top 10. That he isn't is down to him. He's not a kid anymore. I don't like the way he conducts himself on the course with people who are only doing their jobs for a fraction of the money he is getting. He's treated his caddies very poorly at times too and for all the "Ah he's a lidgind" that gets thrown around on social media when he uses foul language, he's in a professional environment and I'd say most of us if we reacted like that towards subordinates or in front of paying customers in our workplaces would have a few questions to answer.

 

[Philby]

Here's my model results & betting plan for The Open

The Open Championship 2024: Who are the value bets?

If we smash the golf statistics up against the Betfair Exchange odds, which golfers jump out as being worth backing…?

medium.com

Xander win, Henley place and Henley top 20 all came in.

Based on my staking plan (1pt e/w and 3pts per Top X bet) that's a tidy 152% profit (35pts profit on an outlay of 23pts)

My 2024 Majors betting record

The Masters 2024 - 12.5% loss
PGA Championship 2024 - 151% profit
U.S. Open 2024 - 89% profit
The Open Championship?—?152% profit

The Open Championship 2024: Who are the value bets?

If we smash the golf statistics up against the Betfair Exchange odds, which golfers jump out as being worth backing…?

medium.com

 

[greengrass]

Good luck to Lowry he's a superb player but I reckon if he had a bit more control over himself and his emotions he'd be consistently in the world top 10. That he isn't is down to him. He's not a kid anymore. I don't like the way he conducts himself on the course with people who are only doing their jobs for a fraction of the money he is getting. He's treated his caddies very poorly at times too and for all the "Ah he's a lidgind" that gets thrown around on social media when he uses foul language, he's in a professional environment and I'd say most of us if we reacted like that towards subordinates or in front of paying customers in our workplaces would have a few questions to answer.

Agreed.But apparently you can counter all the ignorant stuff by buying a couple of pizzas.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Xander win, Henley place and Henley top 20 all came in.

Based on my staking plan (1pt e/w and 3pts per Top X bet) that's a tidy 152% profit (35pts profit on an outlay of 23pts)

My 2024 Majors betting record

The Masters 2024 - 12.5% loss
PGA Championship 2024 - 151% profit
U.S. Open 2024 - 89% profit
The Open Championship?—?152% profit

The Open Championship 2024: Who are the value bets?

If we smash the golf statistics up against the Betfair Exchange odds, which golfers jump out as being worth backing…?

medium.com

Very impressive.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

@Philby just wondering have you been plugging your model into any tournaments outside the majors?

If so, how's it going?

 

[Philby]

@Philby just wondering have you been plugging your model into any tournaments outside the majors?

If so, how's it going?

Ya. I do a run of the model for most weeks in the PGA.

It's been running for around a season and a half (~315 bets) so not a particularly large sample size for an event like golf, but still it's big enough to at least start drawing some working assumption.

So far it's broken down as follows:

Elite tournaments (i.e. majors and Ryder Cup) - 69% profit
Signature events - 56% loss
High quality non-signature events* - 100% profit
Regular events - 9% loss

So far my total stakes have been about 40% each on Elite and Regular, with the remaining 20% on the other two categories.

The model & staking has not been entirely stable either across the period. At various points in the last 18 months I've added extra factors to the model and I've trended towards adding more Top 10/Top 20/Top 30 bets, to smooth out the variance a bit.

* This was a bit of a judgement call. I went for BMW Championship, Fedex St Jude Championship & Tour Championship