The Official Golf Thread

[Philby]

3M Open this week.

I'm on the following:

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View attachment 34808

A mix of (a) top of the market (b) golfers my model rates and (c) guys who look value at their current price

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Well, lookie here who is first round leader. The guy with the biggest differential between his Betfair odds and my model rankings.

He's in from 490.0 to 25.0 to win outright. I'm just hoping that he can hang on for a top 20/30. In tournaments where he misses the cut he tends to have a decent shot at top 30 at least.

https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/daily-wrapup/2024/07/25/jacob-bridgeman-leads-3m-open-after-first-round-63-at-tpc-twin-cities-sahith-theegala-hughes-woodland-finau

 

[greengrass]

I'm not at all supportive of the Open being in Ireland, unless the R&A is looking to expand it to other countries, as well.

Govt to explore potential of hosting Open Championship

The government has announced its intention to explore the possibility of hosting the Open Championship and the AIG Women's Open in Portmarnock Golf Club.

www.rte.ie

If we can qmake money out of it, ok, but taxpayers money to that shower of elites, no thank you.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Well, lookie here who is first round leader. The guy with the biggest differential between his Betfair odds and my model rankings.

He's in from 490.0 to 25.0 to win outright. I'm just hoping that he can hang on for a top 20/30. In tournaments where he misses the cut he tends to have a decent shot at top 30 at least.

https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/daily-wrapup/2024/07/25/jacob-bridgeman-leads-3m-open-after-first-round-63-at-tpc-twin-cities-sahith-theegala-hughes-woodland-finau

Novak in third too. Good start. Of course, I never followed you in this week.

Would you not be sick enough if one of your huge price picks wins a tournament and you only backed the measly top 20 or 30?

 

[Philby]

Would you not be sick enough if one of your huge price picks wins a tournament and you only backed the measly top 20 or 30?

Not so much tbh. I'd be gutted if I didn't back him at all...but to keep on the right side of variance you need to draw the line somewhere.

In very few cases will a 490.0 shot end up in genuine contention come Sunday. Not to mind win it. Even after that great first round Bridgeman is still only a 15/1-20/1 shot (DataGolf vs Betfair).

The way I look at it - with Bridgeman, the odds made him the 92nd best player in the field and my model made him the 19th best. It would be a hell of an achievement for him if he out-performed the weight of money and finished in or around that 20th spot. I'd rather be cheering on one of those landing every 2 or 3 tournaments than go a whole year (or more) potentially watching those long odds win-only bets go down the tubes.

Also, if I'm honest...iI I had backed Bridgeman at 490.0 I'd be severely tempted to jusy walk away and take the profit after round #1.

That said...before tee-off I did have a small stakes win-only bet on Ben Silverman who was also a big price (180.0) - as he was more in the sweet spot of chunky price and high rating (only 3 players had a materially higher rating than him in my model).

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Not so much tbh. I'd be gutted if I didn't back him at all...but to keep on the right side of variance you need to draw the line somewhere.

In very few cases will a 490.0 shot end up in genuine contention come Sunday. Not to mind win it. Even after that great first round Bridgeman is still only a 15/1-20/1 shot (DataGolf vs Betfair).

The way I look at it - with Bridgeman, the odds made him the 92nd best player in the field and my model made him the 19th best. It would be a hell of an achievement for him if he out-performed the weight of money and finished in or around that 20th spot. I'd rather be cheering on one of those landing every 2 or 3 tournaments than go a whole year (or more) potentially watching those long odds win-only bets go down the tubes.

Also, if I'm honest...iI I had backed Bridgeman at 490.0 I'd be severely tempted to jusy walk away and take the profit after round #1.

That said...before tee-off I did have a small stakes win-only bet on Ben Silverman who was also a big price (180.0) - as he was more in the sweet spot of chunky price and high rating (only 3 players had a materially higher rating than him in my model).

It would probably be worth it to do both though. Maybe back the win for a few coppers on the Exchange.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Novak going along nicely too today. Currently leading on -10.

 

[Philby]

Novak going along nicely too today. Currently leading on -10.

Ya, if the two f*ckers are neck and neck come Sunday I hope they both lose

I love the live tournament strokes gained view that datagolf have.

Gives you a good feel for where players are picking up strokes. Useful to see whether players are only in the mix because they ran hot with the putter - and to assess whether that is out of character (...not hte case with Mackenzie Hughes, who is 8th on tour for SG putting)

Live Tournament Stats - 3M Open

Live strokes gained and traditional statistics from every round of this week’s PGA Tour event in a customizable table.

datagolf.com

 

[leeside_rebel]

I'm not at all supportive of the Open being in Ireland, unless the R&A is looking to expand it to other countries, as well.

Govt to explore potential of hosting Open Championship

The government has announced its intention to explore the possibility of hosting the Open Championship and the AIG Women's Open in Portmarnock Golf Club.

www.rte.ie

Don't think there is the infrastructure or public transport up there to deal with it.

 

[Philby]

3M Open this week.

I'm on the following:

View attachment 34810

View attachment 34808

A mix of (a) top of the market (b) golfers my model rates and (c) guys who look value at their current price

View attachment 34809

46% loss this week.

Bridgeman secured the top 30 comfortably but his 5-way tie for Top 20 reduced the pay-out considerably. Novak was just one shot off that top 20 pay-out too.

 

[Philby]

Did a fairly basic model for the Olympics event, as there wasn't that much detail available on the nature of the course.

So I went with my gut as much as anything this week, and kept the stakes low.

Win gold - Aberg
To win a medal - Aberg, Conners & Detry