Analytics in Football - Official Thread

Donald Trump

Full Member
The relationship between actual and expected is the biggest show in town. It need not be about which one has marginally more predictive power than the other.
Ah I just thought it was an interesting article and I wouldn't know enough to comment on the relevant good points and bad points of each system.

But in the betting game, surely we'd do well to be cognisant of both?
 
Caught with his pants down...or do we believe him in the replies?

On the balance of probabilities I'd believe him Cloudy.

- He's a fine journo so doesn't have a compelling need to steal content. Especially for a game which was very high in incident, importance & narrative. I doubt his creative well had run so dry that he'd take such a drastic action
- The chances of doing this and not getting found out are low. Bound to be a decent-sized overlap in readers across the two writers

Feels a very high risk / low return thing to do just for a couple of paragraphs in a much longer newletter
 
On the balance of probabilities I'd believe him Cloudy.

- He's a fine journo so doesn't have a compelling need to steal content. Especially for a game which was very high in incident, importance & narrative. I doubt his creative well had run so dry that he'd take such a drastic action
- The chances of doing this and not getting found out are low. Bound to be a decent-sized overlap in readers across the two writers

Feels a very high risk / low return thing to do just for a couple of paragraphs in a much longer newletter
I'd be inclined to believe him too, to be honest, and it's not as if he would have been stealing anything of great intellectual standing anyway.
 

  • Forest may come to regret not doing more to keep Samba. There's a massive 10.8 goal swing in post-shot xG between him and Dean Henderson
  • Bazuna is having a horrible intro to top-flight football. Travers is even worse on a per 90 basis, but I'm guessing he's filtered out of this analysis based on no. of appearances
  • Q: Did Arsenal downgrade when they let Leno go? A: Ah probably not. Small sample size
 

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