Analytics in Football - Official Thread

This is a great piece of work, which they update on the fly.


How it's constructed. It's based on the results of 2.5m games since 1990


Some notable rankings

Shamrock Rovers - 299th place (highest placed Irish side)
Cork City - 1,979th place
Dulka Prague - 2,250th place
Cobh Ramblers - 6,732nd place
 
Hmm...my spreadsheet says Leeds are due an upturn in goalscoring, plus Casemiro is missing. Odds already reflect this though, I would say.

Plus the intangible co-caretaker manager boost :ROFLMAO:

My guess is backing the draw in both games will yield a profit.

Leeds will be blunt without Rodrigo, but will dig in across the two games and may get some little bit of joy.

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The "Playing Time" Table on the link below looks to be a source for an individual's affect on their team's actual and expected goals.

It's hard to put a huge amount of stock in this though, especially just after a transfer window. Sabitzer may or may not soften the blow compared to what McTominay would have.

 
I'd imagine the downturn on Leeds' price from 8.2 to 6.0 came when Casemiro got sent off the other day, then came the levelling off. Might be worth considering Leeds if the price is much above 7.0
 

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