Analytics in Football - Official Thread

[Philby]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608131372870402048

 

[Donald Trump]

A brief history of statistics in football: why actual goals remain king in predicting who will win

Despite being 25 years old, the Dixon-Coles model is still the gold standard of football prediction

theconversation.com

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

The relationship between actual and expected is the biggest show in town. It need not be about which one has marginally more predictive power than the other.

 

[Donald Trump]

The relationship between actual and expected is the biggest show in town. It need not be about which one has marginally more predictive power than the other.

Ah I just thought it was an interesting article and I wouldn't know enough to comment on the relevant good points and bad points of each system.

But in the betting game, surely we'd do well to be cognisant of both?

 

[Philby]

William Hill

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Not yet, but Rory Smith is a great journo so I'm expecting good things.

Caught with his pants down...or do we believe him in the replies?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612141849761775616

 

[Philby]

Caught with his pants down...or do we believe him in the replies?

On the balance of probabilities I'd believe him Cloudy.

- He's a fine journo so doesn't have a compelling need to steal content. Especially for a game which was very high in incident, importance & narrative. I doubt his creative well had run so dry that he'd take such a drastic action
- The chances of doing this and not getting found out are low. Bound to be a decent-sized overlap in readers across the two writers

Feels a very high risk / low return thing to do just for a couple of paragraphs in a much longer newletter

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

On the balance of probabilities I'd believe him Cloudy.

- He's a fine journo so doesn't have a compelling need to steal content. Especially for a game which was very high in incident, importance & narrative. I doubt his creative well had run so dry that he'd take such a drastic action
- The chances of doing this and not getting found out are low. Bound to be a decent-sized overlap in readers across the two writers

Feels a very high risk / low return thing to do just for a couple of paragraphs in a much longer newletter

I'd be inclined to believe him too, to be honest, and it's not as if he would have been stealing anything of great intellectual standing anyway.

 

[Philby]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618207065146810368

• Forest may come to regret not doing more to keep Samba. There's a massive 10.8 goal swing in post-shot xG between him and Dean Henderson
• Bazuna is having a horrible intro to top-flight football. Travers is even worse on a per 90 basis, but I'm guessing he's filtered out of this analysis based on no. of appearances
• Q: Did Arsenal downgrade when they let Leno go? A: Ah probably not. Small sample size

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

So, if Kenny picks Mahon Kev in goal and big Dunc Ferguson of Brighton up front, we'll win Euro 2024.