Analytics in Football - Official Thread

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Poor old Almeria. 28 games, without a league win all season. Had the lead up til the 81st minute tonight but drew. They're not even close to being that bad statistically. The likelihood of a team having the npxg stats they have and not winning a game in 28 must be very slim. Conceding 9 penalties probably not helping too much.

 

[Philby]

Might give this a listen over lunch.

They've got a very good panel - prominent data folks with experience at Liverpool, Arsenal & Man City. A data-savvy manager (Marsch) and one of the best football analytics-savvy journos in Ryan O'Hanlon.

 

[Philby]

I came across this in the context of Amorim's Sporting, but it really underlines just how much shots & chances Man Utd are giving up.

Across the big 6 leagues there are only 3-4 teams worse than them in that respect. All the sides clustered around them are relegation candidates in their respective leagues.

If their opposition finished at even a bang average rate Man Utd would likely find themselves in the bottom half of the table!

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Only problem with that is that Sporting only play 4-6 (if you include Braga) meaningful league games per season. The disparity of wealth is atrocious there. Some of the teams can only dream of being Farmers.

But, yeah, United have been atrocious all season for underlying defensive numbers.

 

[Meritocracy]

Speaking of Sporting. Why didn't Premier League clubs sign Gyokeres when he was at Coventry City?

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

The Transfer Flow

www.thetransferflow.com

Just do it. This ties in with betting too. Ted Knutson back in public with his ego, but he's a smart, smart man, and you ignore people like him at a loss to yourself.

 

[Philby]

A mix of some expected and some surprise names in here. Full PL careers. Not including pens.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1822929197112701077

 

[Philby]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823262897419546630

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823262897419546630

Hmmm...is that the best way to measure one-sidedness? Not sure, really, as that data will take in lots of matches where one team has the upper hand because they are behind for a long stretch and the other team are happy to defend.

 

[Philby]

Also not sure it's the best, but it's intuitive and easy to calculate.

I'd also wager that, on an aggregate basis, the more extreme game state-influenced xG differentials probably don't skew the numbers too much overall.