The coming to power of Sinn Féin in this sovereign Republic would be a truly historic happening. Would the party follow the path of Fianna Fáil in the 1930s, as many people assume, and fully accept the restraints of the rule of law? Or could the integrity of Irish democracy be degraded, as has happened countless times around the world when parties which are not fully committed to democratic values take power?
Sinn Féin has some of the weakest democratic credentials of any political party in Europe. It retains shadowy links to paramilitarism and it constantly glorifies its profoundly anti-democratic strategy of taking power in the 1980s and '90s with "the armalite (assault rifle) in one hand and the ballot box in the other". It has a closed, cult-like organisational structure and members who have stepped out of line have been subject to systemic bullying. The party's instinct is more favourable to the law of the jungle than the rule of law.
The following is a far from exhaustive list of questions that need long and careful consideration about Sinn Féin entering government in this Republic.
Would the hard men from Belfast arrive in Dublin as ministerial advisers? How would civil servants react to having those with IRA pasts sitting behind their ministers and could their presence be interpreted as anything but ominous? Should an independent screening process for ministerial advisers be put in place now in order to ensure greater transparency in appointments and that those appointed are appropriately qualified? Should those who have convictions for violent crime be excluded from adviser roles at the heart of the Irish State?
What about the civil service itself? Ireland has a long tradition of a non-political service, unlike many other countries where senior officials are changed as governments change.
Would Sinn Féin in government seek to politicise the civil service? Would it do so partially, promoting only candidates who are sympathetic to the party? Would it fire or demote those it suspects of not being sympathetic? Would it use the threat of firings and demotions to get civil servants to give only advice that is politically desired?
Then there is the wider public sector, and in particular the State's security services. Would the Garda Commissioner, a former high-ranking PSNI officer, keep his job or feel able to continue under a Sinn Féin government? Would Sinn Féin ministers seek access to the intelligence held by the State's security services? Would they use it against political opponents and civil society actors who criticise the party and its actions in government?
There are plenty of decent people in Sinn Féin, but there are also darker elements. Would the latter feel emboldened to act outside the law if their party was the dominant one in government, or even held an outright majority in the Dáil? Whether cleared from the top of the party or not, would the leadership seek to pressure gardaí not to investigate their members if they broke the law?
How judges are appointed in Ireland is a travesty, as the ongoing farce regarding former attorney general, Séamus Woulfe, has highlighted. For decades, parties in government have appointed party members and sympathisers as judges. It can be validly claimed that judges have not been inclined to act politically after being appointed, but that has been based on an unwritten norm among the lawyerly class. These are not worth the paper they are written on if new actors arrive on the scene who don't share the deeply engrained values underpinning judicial independence.
Why would Sinn Féin not do as other parties have done in the past when in government and appoint its own people as judges? Would it appoint people who are clearly unqualified? Would a Sinn Féin government respect the separation of powers? What about the rule of law?
Article seven of the EU's de facto constitution obliges members to abide by these cornerstones of democratic governance. Governments in Hungary and Poland in recent years have not. Could Ireland join these pariah countries if Sinn Féin, a party which still does not explicitly recognise the legitimacy of the democratic Irish State as it has existed for almost a century, were to seek to bring the judiciary to heel as they have done?
Perhaps the most important question of all is how Sinn Féin in government would pursue its entirely legitimate and central objective of Irish reunification (for what it's worth, it is my view that an agreed unification is the most durable arrangement for this island and its two traditions).
How quickly would a Sinn Féin government seek a Border poll? What would it do if reunification was rejected? If reunification were to win electoral support, what would a Sinn Féin government offer unionists in a newly founded 32-county state? What would it do if unionists refused to come to the table?
Last but not least is the party's attitude to the media and a free press. I contacted the Sinn Féin press office nine days ago requesting information on amendments in recent decades to the party's constitution. There was no reply or even an acknowledgement of the request, despite two follow-up emails over the course of last week.
Would Sinn Féin in government simply ignore questions from the media? Would it answer questions only from those journalists and columnists it deems to be asking the right questions? Would it vilify those who pose hard questions, criticise its performance in government or raise issues about democratic integrity? Would editors be leaned on, something that public sector broadcaster RTÉ could be most vulnerable to given its dependence on the State for funding? The current Coalition could well come apart before the next scheduled election.
Sinn Féin is on course to be in government. These questions might have to be asked sooner than many people realise.
