Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine

Good question, no answer available :)

We can look at it through the lenses of both sides.
It would be easy for Ukraine, they will win when they kick the Russian orcs out from their country and get occupied territories back under their control.

When Russia will win? Hard to say, as this 3-day-long operation is changing its principles week after week ;)
What I would risk saying on Russian situation now:

MILITARY: Russia is losing, they are proven to not be close to being "second army of the world" anymore. They have lost so many personnel (US estimates around 80k people!), they are unable to replace officers, pilots, mechanics and other specialists, they are unable to replace the regular cannon fodders even with mercenaries, foreigners, prisoners and other scumbagz. They are chasing people in conscription age to force them to join so-called republics. They militarized fire service, police, other services... They have lost most of their capabilities for air, missile attacks, their huge artillery is already used (barrels worn and no capabilities to replace), they have no ammo (they use ancient rounds), the fancy technika they were so proud of is crap and their contracts are being cancelled one after another, their their logisitcs do not exist. If that would be an online strategy game, the "emo quit" would be the best solution here.

ECONOMICS: Russia LOST. No matter how the conflict will end, Russian economy does not exist anymore, sanctions are just actually kicking-in and already made havoc in Russia. Car manufacturers - over 90% down, they must strip the planes to look for replacements, they cannot even manufacture white paper, they are short on medicine, no electronics, no components to use in business, they lost manufacturing capabilities so badly, that they are unable to get production up as those orcs cannot even manufacure the machinery and tools they are using. Russia in recent months went back at least 40 years in their growth.

GEOPOLITICS
: Russia LOST. Their position as a leader in this part of the world does not exist anymore. They are excluded from most of international organizations, they have problems in UN even. They are pariah state in that term, no one is willing to have anything to do with them, only some totally rogue countries are making business openly with them as no one else would (like Syria or North Korea). They lost any credibility when it comes to international agreements and are close to be openly named as a terrorist state globally. They will not be able to regain their position this century or maybe ever (fingers crossed).
They lost their project of former soviet states, main players from Central Asia are seeking options to eliminate Russia and deal with the West (and China) on their own.
They absolutely lost as a supplier of weapons to third world countries. All their mask of being civilized country is in pieces.

EUROPEAN AFFAIRS: Russia LOST. Even their ally Hungary is now singing a different song. They can count on such titan in Europe as Serbia and that is all. They pushed Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are next in queue, even stronger than before the conflict. So-called Eastern Flank NATO agenda is being at last listened to. Sanctions and other restrictions are openly applied. They totally failed to crush European unity and their strongest ally Germans, are now totally gone as a leader for the EU - no one will listen to them anymore. They managed to get UK closer to the EU after brexit - well done! The works on eliminating Russia from Europe sped up - fencing in place, no special rights to Russian citizens, Baltic states are starting to clean up the Soviet left overs (including Russians living there and refusing accepting citizenship - you can have Russian passport or none, Russia doesnt accept dual citizenship). The stick called "refugees" does not work on anyone anymore and is clearly seen as stage hybrid war.

FUELS: Russia LOST. The attempts to blackmail Europe - the main importer of their fuels failed big time. In a very short time EU was able to secure most of the new sources, get the projects running and prepare to switch. Russian export of fuels to EU collapsed actually. This resulted in huge gap in the Russian budget. It is so bad for Russians that they burn oil and gas on the fields as they are unable to ship more and do not want to close the installations (they actually cannot afford that due to lack of technology to reopen). EU changed their mind on nuclear power, so all Russian attempts with use of so-called eco-organizations failed miserably and will not help Russia getting hegemony here.

SOCIAL MEDIA/PR: Russia LOST TOTALLY. Their propaganda outlets are banned in most of the countries, they have no power to brain wash the regular society members, only schizophrenic, paranoid conspiracy theories fans and simple idiots are getting caught in their propaganda. The usual Russian trolls are crying loud not getting monies and being ostracized. Ukraine at start of the conflict employed pro PR agencies to help and this worked. Russia is not capable to adapt, they are simple folk, they were bred and raised to obey, not to think.

INTERNAL AFFAIRS: Russia in trouble. More and more voices of opposition are raised. Some republics already openly claiming their rights against the might Russia (Dagestan for example). The special services FSB and GRU have actual war between themselves. They are changing leaders like gloves. No one wants to take responsibility and Russian society is simply sticking to survive the terror (nothing new). There are plenty of acts of sabotage in Russia. They have lost over a million of young skilled and educated workforce this year! The way they mobilize the people (hidden conscription) is only a start of their problems, the majority of loses are not Russian-ethnic... They sending to death only minorities. Russian oligarchs are pissed too, they are losing billions and there is no mercy from the West. Long topic really :) They lost religious influence over Ukraine. The support for Russia in Ukraine does not exist anymore.

OVERALL: Russia has played their cards but miscalculated big time, they will suffer from it for decades. This war will be for a year or two longer. Russia may get to the table and get some peanuts (like part of Donbas maybe, only maybe) but I pretty doubt as everyone sees that the king is naked. So there is no definite winner/loser for the whole conflict - this will be delivered with time unfortunately.

On a contrary, despite massive loses Ukraine suffered, they already won on many levels.
An excellent summary. An imperialist horror story for well over a century now. Let's hope this is the start of change for Russia after all the suffering they have inflicted on themselves and others for decades from the Gulag death camps to horrendous political theories that justified their imperialist horror.
 

an liathroid beag

Full Member
An excellent summary. An imperialist horror story for well over a century now. Let's hope this is the start of change for Russia after all the suffering they have inflicted on themselves and others for decades from the Gulag death camps to horrendous political theories that justified their imperialist horror.
Excellent summary. Putin must be hoping that someboy exert pressure on the Ukrainians to start talking so that he can extract something for his assault. The Ukrainians have no intention of stopping spitroasting the orc dictator .
 

Coach and Six

Full Member
Good question, no answer available :)

We can look at it through the lenses of both sides.
It would be easy for Ukraine, they will win when they kick the Russian orcs out from their country and get occupied territories back under their control.

When Russia will win? Hard to say, as this 3-day-long operation is changing its principles week after week ;)
What I would risk saying on Russian situation now:

MILITARY: Russia is losing, they are proven to not be close to being "second army of the world" anymore. They have lost so many personnel (US estimates around 80k people!), they are unable to replace officers, pilots, mechanics and other specialists, they are unable to replace the regular cannon fodders even with mercenaries, foreigners, prisoners and other scumbagz. They are chasing people in conscription age to force them to join so-called republics. They militarized fire service, police, other services... They have lost most of their capabilities for air, missile attacks, their huge artillery is already used (barrels worn and no capabilities to replace), they have no ammo (they use ancient rounds), the fancy technika they were so proud of is crap and their contracts are being cancelled one after another, their their logisitcs do not exist. If that would be an online strategy game, the "emo quit" would be the best solution here.

ECONOMICS: Russia LOST. No matter how the conflict will end, Russian economy does not exist anymore, sanctions are just actually kicking-in and already made havoc in Russia. Car manufacturers - over 90% down, they must strip the planes to look for replacements, they cannot even manufacture white paper, they are short on medicine, no electronics, no components to use in business, they lost manufacturing capabilities so badly, that they are unable to get production up as those orcs cannot even manufacure the machinery and tools they are using. Russia in recent months went back at least 40 years in their growth.

GEOPOLITICS
: Russia LOST. Their position as a leader in this part of the world does not exist anymore. They are excluded from most of international organizations, they have problems in UN even. They are pariah state in that term, no one is willing to have anything to do with them, only some totally rogue countries are making business openly with them as no one else would (like Syria or North Korea). They lost any credibility when it comes to international agreements and are close to be openly named as a terrorist state globally. They will not be able to regain their position this century or maybe ever (fingers crossed).
They lost their project of former soviet states, main players from Central Asia are seeking options to eliminate Russia and deal with the West (and China) on their own.
They absolutely lost as a supplier of weapons to third world countries. All their mask of being civilized country is in pieces.

EUROPEAN AFFAIRS: Russia LOST. Even their ally Hungary is now singing a different song. They can count on such titan in Europe as Serbia and that is all. They pushed Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are next in queue, even stronger than before the conflict. So-called Eastern Flank NATO agenda is being at last listened to. Sanctions and other restrictions are openly applied. They totally failed to crush European unity and their strongest ally Germans, are now totally gone as a leader for the EU - no one will listen to them anymore. They managed to get UK closer to the EU after brexit - well done! The works on eliminating Russia from Europe sped up - fencing in place, no special rights to Russian citizens, Baltic states are starting to clean up the Soviet left overs (including Russians living there and refusing accepting citizenship - you can have Russian passport or none, Russia doesnt accept dual citizenship). The stick called "refugees" does not work on anyone anymore and is clearly seen as stage hybrid war.

FUELS: Russia LOST. The attempts to blackmail Europe - the main importer of their fuels failed big time. In a very short time EU was able to secure most of the new sources, get the projects running and prepare to switch. Russian export of fuels to EU collapsed actually. This resulted in huge gap in the Russian budget. It is so bad for Russians that they burn oil and gas on the fields as they are unable to ship more and do not want to close the installations (they actually cannot afford that due to lack of technology to reopen). EU changed their mind on nuclear power, so all Russian attempts with use of so-called eco-organizations failed miserably and will not help Russia getting hegemony here.

SOCIAL MEDIA/PR: Russia LOST TOTALLY. Their propaganda outlets are banned in most of the countries, they have no power to brain wash the regular society members, only schizophrenic, paranoid conspiracy theories fans and simple idiots are getting caught in their propaganda. The usual Russian trolls are crying loud not getting monies and being ostracized. Ukraine at start of the conflict employed pro PR agencies to help and this worked. Russia is not capable to adapt, they are simple folk, they were bred and raised to obey, not to think.

INTERNAL AFFAIRS: Russia in trouble. More and more voices of opposition are raised. Some republics already openly claiming their rights against the might Russia (Dagestan for example). The special services FSB and GRU have actual war between themselves. They are changing leaders like gloves. No one wants to take responsibility and Russian society is simply sticking to survive the terror (nothing new). There are plenty of acts of sabotage in Russia. They have lost over a million of young skilled and educated workforce this year! The way they mobilize the people (hidden conscription) is only a start of their problems, the majority of loses are not Russian-ethnic... They sending to death only minorities. Russian oligarchs are pissed too, they are losing billions and there is no mercy from the West. Long topic really :) They lost religious influence over Ukraine. The support for Russia in Ukraine does not exist anymore.

OVERALL: Russia has played their cards but miscalculated big time, they will suffer from it for decades. This war will be for a year or two longer. Russia may get to the table and get some peanuts (like part of Donbas maybe, only maybe) but I pretty doubt as everyone sees that the king is naked. So there is no definite winner/loser for the whole conflict - this will be delivered with time unfortunately.

On a contrary, despite massive loses Ukraine suffered, they already won on many levels.
Interesting. Militarily he's in a pickle for sure but he's not hopeless either. It looks like the West are happy enough to give Ukraine enough help to make it really difficult for Putin at times, but not enough to really humiliate Russia. It's slow boiling a lobster stuff.

Putin is banking on a harsh winter and discontent in Europe but that could backfire as Ukraine mobilises and gets more and more dangerous weapons.

Think you're overplaying the internal strife in Russia though. Putin has a very tight grip on power and all the institutions including the military. Media and public dissent is suppressed. Even if there's a moderate amount of disquiet, even anger, I don't think it'll manifest itself as a major problem for him.

If he goes full conscription in the western part of the country, or if he goes nuclear, the internal politics may become more of an issue for him. At the start of the war it was said the Oligarchs would reign Putin in but there doesn't seem to be any sign of that.
 

an liathroid beag

Full Member
Ukraine is engaged in a counteroffensive aimed at creating “chaos within Russian forces” by striking at the invaders’ supply lines deep into occupied territories, according to a key adviser to the president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Mykhailo Podolyak told the Guardian there could be more attacks in the “next two or three months” similar to Tuesday’s mysterious strikes on a railway junction and an airbase in Crimea, as well as last week’s hit on Russian warplanes at the peninsula’s Saky aerodrome.


Russia said a fire on Tuesday had set off explosions at a munitions depot in the Dzhankoi district of Crimea – an incident that Podolyak said was a reminder that “Crimea occupied by Russians is about warehouse explosions and high risk of death for invaders and thieves”.

Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the attacks. They have prompted Russian tourists to flee Crimea in panic. There were queues on Tuesday outside the railway station at the regional capital, Simferopol.

The defence ministry in Moscow said it was dealing with cases of sabotage and taking “necessary measures” to prevent further episodes.
 

Swanforthelough

Full Member
Ukraine is engaged in a counteroffensive aimed at creating “chaos within Russian forces” by striking at the invaders’ supply lines deep into occupied territories, according to a key adviser to the president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Mykhailo Podolyak told the Guardian there could be more attacks in the “next two or three months” similar to Tuesday’s mysterious strikes on a railway junction and an airbase in Crimea, as well as last week’s hit on Russian warplanes at the peninsula’s Saky aerodrome.


Russia said a fire on Tuesday had set off explosions at a munitions depot in the Dzhankoi district of Crimea – an incident that Podolyak said was a reminder that “Crimea occupied by Russians is about warehouse explosions and high risk of death for invaders and thieves”.

Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the attacks. They have prompted Russian tourists to flee Crimea in panic. There were queues on Tuesday outside the railway station at the regional capital, Simferopol.

The defence ministry in Moscow said it was dealing with cases of sabotage and taking “necessary measures” to prevent further episodes.
Essentially Ukraine lost most of their experienced battle hardened units between Mariupol and the Russian onslaught in the Donbas, some will say it was a waste especially in the Donbas but the Russians lost more from this operation and also was a ploy to run down their artillery reserves which are limited given 3 days turned into six months. Even when ceding ground the Ukrainians played a smart game of fighting for towns then suddenly pulling out and then launching artillery on the encroaching Russians which cost them a huge amount of infantry and equipment

The interesting thing has been that Kherson/ Crimea is the smart objective for the Ukrainians and the Donbas was just some sort of chest beating carp from Vlad as it is a run down old industrial area with old coal mines/ outdated steel works from the Communist era. Controlling the ports and the Black sea is the real prize. Vlad stills controls the narrative in Russia but thousands of holiday makers coming screaming home from the Crimea, no amount of Propaganda will be able to mask the fact that Crimea is no longer inhabitable from a Russian perspective. If they can take out the bridge to Crimea then that will be a huge statement and no way back for the Russians.

Ukraine cannot take the losses of manpower in another battle of attrition for some time yet but do they need to now they can able to cut the head off the snake, no doubt it will still be necessary unfortunately to clear out urban areas where Russians are well dug in.

In another six weeks the first trained troops will return from the UK/Poland and they will have a constant supply of professional soldiers hitting the front each day. Besides the foreign legions their top notch troops have been few and far between in recent times.

The only trump card Vlad has left is the gas to Europe this Winter.
 

catcha

Full Member
Interesting. Militarily he's in a pickle for sure but he's not hopeless either. It looks like the West are happy enough to give Ukraine enough help to make it really difficult for Putin at times, but not enough to really humiliate Russia. It's slow boiling a lobster stuff.

Putin is banking on a harsh winter and discontent in Europe but that could backfire as Ukraine mobilises and gets more and more dangerous weapons.

Think you're overplaying the internal strife in Russia though. Putin has a very tight grip on power and all the institutions including the military. Media and public dissent is suppressed. Even if there's a moderate amount of disquiet, even anger, I don't think it'll manifest itself as a major problem for him.

If he goes full conscription in the western part of the country, or if he goes nuclear, the internal politics may become more of an issue for him. At the start of the war it was said the Oligarchs would reign Putin in but there doesn't seem to be any sign of that.

Thank you for the comments :) I thought it will never happen in PROC :)

I would rather say that militarily Russia is dead, but they are not knowing about it and everyone else is waiting for their ace from the sleeve (but I am petty sure there is none). Why am I saying it? The modern war is won by intelligence and logistics. Both of these are non existent. Recent days have proven that cutting only two railroads you can subsequently destroy all the supply chain for their forces.

Their technology is ancient or on paper (like those superb non-existent 5th generation jets, or indestructible Ka helis which are falling from the skies, super sound precision missiles etc.). They are literally scrapping the bottom of the old rusty box trying to find replacements to the destroyed armors or to look for the spares to repair the ones to be repaired. The satellite pictures are proving it, reports on the ground are comparing it, intercepted calls and communication proves that.
C'mon they had to use tires from the 80s to their transports! They are using scavenged parts for their electronics. Guess where they were getting most parts to their tanks and rockets from - yes, you are right, from Ukraine. It is literally impossible to replace that industry in less than a year. During WW2 they were able to push Germans out only because of ridiculous numbers of equipment from land lease (which de facto they refused to pay for after the war).

All weapons Ukraine is getting (apart from former soviet ones, but not all) have kill-switch function :) Ukraine will never attack the West, has zero interest in attacking anyone and never had. That was their mistake when they gave up in 2014, they should push, but that time was different. They still had shit military structure, no weapons and huge corruption. The winter is not playing any difference in this conflict apart from the fact it will be easier to attack where Russians are now defending, Crimea is not cut off in the winter too. Please do not forget that Ukrainians are all good when it comes to "Russian winter" that weather makes nothing on them :)
This is another myth Russians are trying to convince everyone to :) With the lack of right equipment in RuAF, I would be worried if I would be Russian actually.

Well the Russian interior is a huge topic. Russia was never a democratic state, seriously suppressed media is not making much on the Russians :) I know sounds terrible right? This is Mordor itself, where family can send you to Gulag because they will report your wrong-thinking ;) It is boiling in my opinion. The signs on the sky and the ground are saying it is boiling big time. However, it is very hard to get what is happening in that fucked up country if you do not follow their history in detail for a long time :) This is a topic for a separate thread not a post :) Just to say, that Russia is not Moscow or Petersburg only. There are regions which are not willing to die for Putin or Moscow.

Putin will not go nuclear, not a chance. (and he is not the one pressing the button in Russia actually, there are four buttons) Russians are not sure if any of launched rockets will actually start, not to say those will hit the target. When NATO nukes do not have this "discomfort" ;) The most Putin could do is some sort of catastrophe like blowing up Enerhodar plant. Nuclear controllers are flagging multiple issues caused by Russians for weeks now. But again, the wind can start blowing the other direction and they can srew themselves.
The shit for Putin may hit the fan when he decides to do the official conscription (but it is too late already!) and set the economy to war mode. Then people get pissed big time. Russians lost more people and equipment so far than in 10 years of Afghanistan when they were the super power. Afghanistan caused changes - Gorbatchov emerged and his perestroyka then ;)
The oligarchs are staying quiet as there are wars "in the high castle" they are not willing to take the risks and lose all their fortunes. They are waiting until the favorite player will demonstrate and then they will take their actions - they always do it the same way :)

Ukraine is engaged in a counteroffensive aimed at creating “chaos within Russian forces” by striking at the invaders’ supply lines deep into occupied territories, according to a key adviser to the president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Mykhailo Podolyak told the Guardian there could be more attacks in the “next two or three months” similar to Tuesday’s mysterious strikes on a railway junction and an airbase in Crimea, as well as last week’s hit on Russian warplanes at the peninsula’s Saky aerodrome.


Russia said a fire on Tuesday had set off explosions at a munitions depot in the Dzhankoi district of Crimea – an incident that Podolyak said was a reminder that “Crimea occupied by Russians is about warehouse explosions and high risk of death for invaders and thieves”.

Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the attacks. They have prompted Russian tourists to flee Crimea in panic. There were queues on Tuesday outside the railway station at the regional capital, Simferopol.

The defence ministry in Moscow said it was dealing with cases of sabotage and taking “necessary measures” to prevent further episodes.

All true my friend, all true :)

I have no clue what game Ukrainians are trying to play right now but definitely the psychology is a big part of it. It is a pity I get the recordings only with Polish hard subs, no English so I cannot really share here - pointless. There are loads of intercepted calls you would not believe they were real (but they were...)

This part of not claiming responsibility is a good one. Everyone knows but no one will admit ;) Ukrainian officials banned some Western journalists for publishing "from the government sources close to the President Ukrainian Army...". As they used their sources to pass the news it was Ukrainians doing.
This is a classic usage of Russian weapons/tactics against themselves. Russian think tanks are getting paranoid seeing it. Everyone knows, no one can take it for granted. People in Russia (at least some of them) are not that totally stupid too. I really doubt anyone will take a holiday trip to Crimea from the workplace any time soon ;)

Ouch, I know too long posts!

(but I could write for hours)
 

catcha

Full Member
The only trump card Vlad has left is the gas to Europe this Winter.

Thank you for that specific info! I would have problems putting it that compact and to the point!
I only would challenge the quoted above. The gas is almost sorted out already, the issue is oil, not gas. For gas EU got contracts for LNG via sea (only some countries are rushing with building gasoports now), new pipes Algeria-Italy, Morocco-Spain-France, Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan-Turkey-Greece/Bulgaria. Those pipes are already done or being finished actually :)

The supply from North Sea and Africa is stable. The Central Asian increasing and backups are already activated.

I would not be surprised if this would be a very warm winter - after all everything is against Russians, so why not the weather :)
 

King Silkbeard

Full Member
Good question, no answer available :)

We can look at it through the lenses of both sides.
It would be easy for Ukraine, they will win when they kick the Russian orcs out from their country and get occupied territories back under their control.

When Russia will win? Hard to say, as this 3-day-long operation is changing its principles week after week ;)
What I would risk saying on Russian situation now:

MILITARY: Russia is losing, they are proven to not be close to being "second army of the world" anymore. They have lost so many personnel (US estimates around 80k people!), they are unable to replace officers, pilots, mechanics and other specialists, they are unable to replace the regular cannon fodders even with mercenaries, foreigners, prisoners and other scumbagz. They are chasing people in conscription age to force them to join so-called republics. They militarized fire service, police, other services... They have lost most of their capabilities for air, missile attacks, their huge artillery is already used (barrels worn and no capabilities to replace), they have no ammo (they use ancient rounds), the fancy technika they were so proud of is crap and their contracts are being cancelled one after another, their their logisitcs do not exist. If that would be an online strategy game, the "emo quit" would be the best solution here.

ECONOMICS: Russia LOST. No matter how the conflict will end, Russian economy does not exist anymore, sanctions are just actually kicking-in and already made havoc in Russia. Car manufacturers - over 90% down, they must strip the planes to look for replacements, they cannot even manufacture white paper, they are short on medicine, no electronics, no components to use in business, they lost manufacturing capabilities so badly, that they are unable to get production up as those orcs cannot even manufacure the machinery and tools they are using. Russia in recent months went back at least 40 years in their growth.

GEOPOLITICS
: Russia LOST. Their position as a leader in this part of the world does not exist anymore. They are excluded from most of international organizations, they have problems in UN even. They are pariah state in that term, no one is willing to have anything to do with them, only some totally rogue countries are making business openly with them as no one else would (like Syria or North Korea). They lost any credibility when it comes to international agreements and are close to be openly named as a terrorist state globally. They will not be able to regain their position this century or maybe ever (fingers crossed).
They lost their project of former soviet states, main players from Central Asia are seeking options to eliminate Russia and deal with the West (and China) on their own.
They absolutely lost as a supplier of weapons to third world countries. All their mask of being civilized country is in pieces.

EUROPEAN AFFAIRS: Russia LOST. Even their ally Hungary is now singing a different song. They can count on such titan in Europe as Serbia and that is all. They pushed Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are next in queue, even stronger than before the conflict. So-called Eastern Flank NATO agenda is being at last listened to. Sanctions and other restrictions are openly applied. They totally failed to crush European unity and their strongest ally Germans, are now totally gone as a leader for the EU - no one will listen to them anymore. They managed to get UK closer to the EU after brexit - well done! The works on eliminating Russia from Europe sped up - fencing in place, no special rights to Russian citizens, Baltic states are starting to clean up the Soviet left overs (including Russians living there and refusing accepting citizenship - you can have Russian passport or none, Russia doesnt accept dual citizenship). The stick called "refugees" does not work on anyone anymore and is clearly seen as stage hybrid war.

FUELS: Russia LOST. The attempts to blackmail Europe - the main importer of their fuels failed big time. In a very short time EU was able to secure most of the new sources, get the projects running and prepare to switch. Russian export of fuels to EU collapsed actually. This resulted in huge gap in the Russian budget. It is so bad for Russians that they burn oil and gas on the fields as they are unable to ship more and do not want to close the installations (they actually cannot afford that due to lack of technology to reopen). EU changed their mind on nuclear power, so all Russian attempts with use of so-called eco-organizations failed miserably and will not help Russia getting hegemony here.

SOCIAL MEDIA/PR: Russia LOST TOTALLY. Their propaganda outlets are banned in most of the countries, they have no power to brain wash the regular society members, only schizophrenic, paranoid conspiracy theories fans and simple idiots are getting caught in their propaganda. The usual Russian trolls are crying loud not getting monies and being ostracized. Ukraine at start of the conflict employed pro PR agencies to help and this worked. Russia is not capable to adapt, they are simple folk, they were bred and raised to obey, not to think.

INTERNAL AFFAIRS: Russia in trouble. More and more voices of opposition are raised. Some republics already openly claiming their rights against the might Russia (Dagestan for example). The special services FSB and GRU have actual war between themselves. They are changing leaders like gloves. No one wants to take responsibility and Russian society is simply sticking to survive the terror (nothing new). There are plenty of acts of sabotage in Russia. They have lost over a million of young skilled and educated workforce this year! The way they mobilize the people (hidden conscription) is only a start of their problems, the majority of loses are not Russian-ethnic... They sending to death only minorities. Russian oligarchs are pissed too, they are losing billions and there is no mercy from the West. Long topic really :) They lost religious influence over Ukraine. The support for Russia in Ukraine does not exist anymore.

OVERALL: Russia has played their cards but miscalculated big time, they will suffer from it for decades. This war will be for a year or two longer. Russia may get to the table and get some peanuts (like part of Donbas maybe, only maybe) but I pretty doubt as everyone sees that the king is naked. So there is no definite winner/loser for the whole conflict - this will be delivered with time unfortunately.

On a contrary, despite massive loses Ukraine suffered, they already won on many levels.
Well that long drawn out spiel is not biased in any way, let's really look at it, Ukraine is no longer just attacking the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, big brother Russia is looking after them also during the Iraq war the coalition forces killed more civillians than the Russians are in Ukraine, a point nobody is willing to address, if you want to cite another example the allies during World War 2 killed lots of civillians.

America the only nation yet to drop two atomic bombs on civilian targets, if Putin was as mad and as genocidial as some of the PROCCers on here would have you believe why would he hesitate to use his large stockpile of nukes on Ukraine, finish off them with one stroke, nuke Kiev, nothing stopping him but that would require thinking that maybe Russia is not as crazy or inhumane as the US and UK would like you to believe.

Strange how the US and UK are eager to see so many Russians lose their lives in Ukraine instead of having a ceasefire, the delusional belief that Zelensky will get Crimea back means that the Russians would have to be forcefully removed from there we only have to look at Palestine when the Arabs tried on numerous times to regain land taken by Israel but in that conflict the West takes the side of the occupier.
 

Swanforthelough

Full Member
Thank you for that specific info! I would have problems putting it that compact and to the point!
I only would challenge the quoted above. The gas is almost sorted out already, the issue is oil, not gas. For gas EU got contracts for LNG via sea (only some countries are rushing with building gasoports now), new pipes Algeria-Italy, Morocco-Spain-France, Azerbaijan/Kazakhstan-Turkey-Greece/Bulgaria. Those pipes are already done or being finished actually :)

The supply from North Sea and Africa is stable. The Central Asian increasing and backups are already activated.

I would not be surprised if this would be a very warm winter - after all everything is against Russians, so why not the weather :)
The issue is the German LNG ports will take years but they will have some temporary floating ports that could come online by January but will account for 13% of Germany’s gas consumption.

But thanks to the Poles for seeing this thing a long way off and linking their pipelines to the LNG ports in the Baltic’s and direct pipeline from Norway things might not be as bad as anticipated.

As Danny Healy Rae says only God is in charge of the weather so let’s pray for God and the weather.
 

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