the official betting thread.

[Philby]

Ah no, I have no experience of him or the site other than listening to him on the two recent podcasts. If your experience isn't great, then you may well have a point. Apparently, his site is similar in popularity to Bookie Bashers, so...

From what I know of it, the bulk of Predictology looks to be betting on "patterns" - and for many of these it's not clear to me why you'd expect these to be profitable going forward

e.g. Betting on over 2.5 goals in games involving the "big 6", where the big 6 side is coming off a defeat and playing at home next.

https://www.predictology.co/wp/2020/09/11/advanced-strategies-for-profiting-on-over-2-5-goals/?

Whereas Bookie Bashing, which is more up my street personally, focuses more on using tools & methodologies to find value bets...and imho there's a lot more transparency & stronger rationable on why those bets have an edge.

Even allowing for that, the likelihood is that there's a certain amount of punters who might have an interest in both - and may choose one or the other.

Which begs the question on why he has effectively given the Predictology guy a free ad slot with his audience?

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

From what I know of it, the bulk of Predictology looks to be betting on "patterns" - and for many of these it's not clear to me why you'd expect these to be profitable going forward

e.g. Betting on over 2.5 goals in games involving the "big 6", where the big 6 side is coming off a defeat and playing at home next.

https://www.predictology.co/wp/2020/09/11/advanced-strategies-for-profiting-on-over-2-5-goals/?

Whereas Bookie Bashing, which is more up my street personally, focuses more on using tools & methodologies to find value bets...and imho there's a lot more transparency & stronger rationable on why those bets have an edge.

Even allowing for that, the likelihood is that there's a certain amount of punters who might have an interest in both - and may choose one or the other.

Which begs the question on why he has effectively given the Predictology guy a free ad slot with his audience?

Hmmm...I think if you have reams of data where very particular situations can be back tested then you probably have a reasonably strong predictor. It may not be the be all and end all in terms of selecting a bet, but it's certainly information that could be plugged into a model.

I'd imagine that's why his website is popular, actually. He got that data cheaply, as he said in the BB podcast, so his intention is probably to pass on the ability to play with that data, for whatever subscription price, as much as anything else.

With any of these sites, it's very much up to the consumer to decide how to use the information rather than have their hand held into making millions with little effort.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Some bets for the World Championship.

First was Gary Anderson, done a while back at 67.0 (screenshot provided)

Also on Peter Wright and Chris Dobey at 26.0 and 67.0 Repsectively (posted here at the time). Backed MVG yesterday, only because 8/1 is massive value, and also backed Luke Humphries at 9/2 a few weeks ago.

Q 1 looks the most open to me. Michael Smith has been dreadful lately and has no hope if it continues. Rob Cross looks the most likely winner, but he's skinny enough at 5/2. I backed Chris Dobey at 8/1 with Paddy (you can get 17/2 with LSB the gubbing barstewards)

Also backed a Humphries Anderson final, and if Anderson can sort out his doubles, 25/1 will be great value. If he doesn't it won't.

Will have a good look at the props markets as they're released in the next few weeks.


Happy Dartmus m8s.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Some bets for the World Championship.

First was Gary Anderson, done a while back at 67.0 (screenshot provided)

Also on Peter Wright and Chris Dobey at 26.0 and 67.0 Repsectively (posted here at the time)View attachment 27081. Backed MVG yesterday, only because 8/1 is massive value, and also backed Luke Humphries at 9/2 a few weeks ago.

Q 1 looks the most open to me. Michael Smith has been dreadful lately and has no hope if it continues. Rob Cross looks the most likely winner, but he's skinny enough at 5/2. I backed Chris Dobey at 8/1 with Paddy (you can get 17/2 with LSB the gubbing barstewards)

Also backed a Humphries Anderson final, and if Anderson can sort out his doubles, 25/1 will be great value. If he doesn't it won't.

Will have a good look at the props markets as they're released in the next few weeks.


Happy Dartmus m8s.

You're already on some nice positive equity there. Everybody mentioned has shortened, bar Dobey.

 

[Philby]

Some bets for the World Championship.

First was Gary Anderson, done a while back at 67.0 (screenshot provided)

Also on Peter Wright and Chris Dobey at 26.0 and 67.0 Repsectively (posted here at the time)View attachment 27081. Backed MVG yesterday, only because 8/1 is massive value, and also backed Luke Humphries at 9/2 a few weeks ago.

Q 1 looks the most open to me. Michael Smith has been dreadful lately and has no hope if it continues. Rob Cross looks the most likely winner, but he's skinny enough at 5/2. I backed Chris Dobey at 8/1 with Paddy (you can get 17/2 with LSB the gubbing barstewards)

Also backed a Humphries Anderson final, and if Anderson can sort out his doubles, 25/1 will be great value. If he doesn't it won't.

Will have a good look at the props markets as they're released in the next few weeks.


Happy Dartmus m8s.

Loving that set of degenerate bookmarks

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Loving that set of degenerate bookmarks

Too much gambling, not enough porn.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Loving that set of degenerate bookmarks

I use that browser for gambling sites and this one for PROCcing/twitter/research!

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

You're already on some nice positive equity there. Everybody mentioned has shortened, bar Dobey.

The Anderson one was just one of those things you get if you watch a sport and follow it enough. Simply, he declared he was going to be taking the game a lot more seriously this year than he had for the last few years. He was going to practice regularly and go to more tournaments on the floor.

I took him at his word, knowing he's one of the best players of all time and if he did as he said the 66/1 would be value. He'd gone through a down spell about 2010/11 (his brother died and it hit him hard) when he dropped to number 20 in the world, before getting back to playing regularly and winning two world titles and lots more besides.

He has a fishing lake in Scotland that he runs with his family and over the last few years he's been enjoying being him after years of living out of a suitcase. So it could have gone the other way too, if he said feck this, after going back to it.

 

[Philby]

I use that browser for gambling sites and this one for PROCcing/twitter/research!

I'll tell you wot m8s...I'd be up for staging an intervention






...if I wasn't next in line in the degenerate rankings

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Haaland, Lewa and Fullkrug anytime tbl, 10/1 sky bet.