the official betting thread.

[Nollaig O Muracu]

I wouldn't be playing down a 13/2 winner.

I actually backed him at 7/1 the Sunday night before last at 888. It was just after he won the last tournament, the GSODs, and was a standout price. I still haven't been paid out this morning, which is slightly concerning.

I'm going to leave it until tomorrow and assume it's just an oversight. I've taken a screenshot just in case.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

I actually backed him at 7/1 the Sunday night before last at 888. It was just after he won the last tournament, the GSODs, and was a standout price. I still haven't been paid out this morning, which is slightly concerning.

I'm going to leave it until tomorrow and assume it's just an oversight. I've taken a screenshot just in case.

Surely you can just login and check if it's still pending, right?

 

[Philby]

Yeah, he released a podcast about it (90 minutes long about this single issue), and I listened to about half of it while walking the dog. 2 days later I went to listen to the rest and it was gone (legal threats were issued I'd say, because it was pretty defamatory about the profit rush guy, imo rightfully so, but I don't make the law)

Gotcha. I was going to link to it here via youtube, but that explains why I couldn't find it.

He certainly wasn't very kind about him, but I'll leave it to those on higher day rates than me to judge if it was libellous.

I still seem to have access to it using my pod app. I'll ping you a link.

He made a joke about gaslighting us all in the new episode 211!

Ah right. I sped past the intros to get to the betting content, so missed that initially.

Couldn't recommend his articles highly enough. Strike the balance perfectly in terms of giving great insight without spoonfeeding. Act as a great intro on the theory & a prompt to kick on and research more yourself.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Surely you can just login and check if it's still pending, right?

The bet is still there in my bet history as an open bet.

It's probably just not paid yet, but you read so much about bookies acting like pricks, I have a suspicion when things like this happen!

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Paddy going 8/1 special offer for MVG for the world championship for play card holders.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

I'd have far more time for Tom Brownlee's insights than the guy from Predictology. A whiff of snake oil off him.

I would be inclined to say that he's much more guarded and a bit less articulate than Tom Brownlee, rather than accusing him of being a snake oil salesman, or is there some particular experience you have of him or his product, other than the bombardment, that makes you think that?

Tom Brownlee does seem very keen to talk and be open. As much as he might be likeable, I can see why people who have, or used to have, the same edges as him might get a bit upset with him.

The bet is still there in my bet history as an open bet.

It's probably just not paid yet, but you read so much about bookies acting like pricks, I have a suspicion when things like this happen!

Ah, you're grand so, just slow to settle.

 

[Philby]

I would be inclined to say that he's much more guarded and a bit less articulate than Tom Brownlee, rather than accusing him of being a snake oil salesman, or is there some particular experience you have of him or his product, other than the bombardment, that makes you think that?

Ah no. Nothing sinister. Just a combination of the email onslaught (roughly 2 a day for a fortnight), his digital marketing background (..which I admit is probably unfair on my part) and the nature of his prediction models (...from what I recall, nothing jumped out to indicate that they'd guide you to betting on something where there's a genuine edge - i.e. betting at a better price than it should be. Felt very pattern-based).

Have you seen anything from Predictology that looked promising? It's been a while since I looked & the site seems to have changed substantialy.

Tom Brownlee does seem very keen to talk and be open. As much as he might be likeable, I can see why people who have, or used to have, the same edges as him might get a bit upset with him.

I can see that angle too. They're entitled to be unhappy - but equally, he's entitled to leverage his knowledge base to offer an information service - like traditional tipsters are.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Have you seen anything from Predictology that looked promising? It's been a while since I looked & the site seems to have changed substantialy.



I can see that angle too. They're entitled to be unhappy - but equally, he's entitled to leverage his knowledge base to offer an information service - like traditional tipsters are.

Ah no, I have no experience of him or the site other than listening to him on the two recent podcasts. If your experience isn't great, then you may well have a point. Apparently, his site is similar in popularity to Bookie Bashers, so...????

 

[Philby]

Ah no, I have no experience of him or the site other than listening to him on the two recent podcasts. If your experience isn't great, then you may well have a point. Apparently, his site is similar in popularity to Bookie Bashers, so...????

From what I know of it, the bulk of Predictology looks to be betting on "patterns" - and for many of these it's not clear to me why you'd expect these to be profitable going forward

e.g. Betting on over 2.5 goals in games involving the "big 6", where the big 6 side is coming off a defeat and playing at home next.

https://www.predictology.co/wp/2020/09/11/advanced-strategies-for-profiting-on-over-2-5-goals/?

Whereas Bookie Bashing, which is more up my street personally, focuses more on using tools & methodologies to find value bets...and imho there's a lot more transparency & stronger rationable on why those bets have an edge.

Even allowing for that, the likelihood is that there's a certain amount of punters who might have an interest in both - and may choose one or the other.

Which begs the question on why he has effectively given the Predictology guy a free ad slot with his audience?

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

From what I know of it, the bulk of Predictology looks to be betting on "patterns" - and for many of these it's not clear to me why you'd expect these to be profitable going forward

e.g. Betting on over 2.5 goals in games involving the "big 6", where the big 6 side is coming off a defeat and playing at home next.

https://www.predictology.co/wp/2020/09/11/advanced-strategies-for-profiting-on-over-2-5-goals/?

Whereas Bookie Bashing, which is more up my street personally, focuses more on using tools & methodologies to find value bets...and imho there's a lot more transparency & stronger rationable on why those bets have an edge.

Even allowing for that, the likelihood is that there's a certain amount of punters who might have an interest in both - and may choose one or the other.

Which begs the question on why he has effectively given the Predictology guy a free ad slot with his audience?

Hmmm...I think if you have reams of data where very particular situations can be back tested then you probably have a reasonably strong predictor. It may not be the be all and end all in terms of selecting a bet, but it's certainly information that could be plugged into a model.

I'd imagine that's why his website is popular, actually. He got that data cheaply, as he said in the BB podcast, so his intention is probably to pass on the ability to play with that data, for whatever subscription price, as much as anything else.

With any of these sites, it's very much up to the consumer to decide how to use the information rather than have their hand held into making millions with little effort.