The next Government

[SoundMan]

At this stage can we say very best ff fg can hope for on polling day is 40% and that would be with everything going their way? they can depend on some independents and maybe soc dems?
sf only hope is a coalition with ff,

Have FF FG reached a peak and are now on a downward slope collectively jimmy? Would that be better or worse than a "plateau"?

 

[SoundMan]

The more i think of it, FF will not go into coalition with SF, Some in the party would be open to it but id say majority would rather a period in opposition
rather than going in as junior partners, If sf were to put together a minority government how long would it last if they were depending
on likes of Paul Murphy, Mick Barry etc?

Alternatively, if SF as seems most likely, end up as the largest party in the next Dail, and FF and FG refuse to go into govt with them, then it could well go back to the country again rather quickly. I wonder what subsequent voting figures for the three parties would likely be then

 

[jimmym]

Alternatively, if SF as seems most likely, end up as the largest party in the next Dail, and FF and FG refuse to go into govt with them, then it could well go back to the country again rather quickly. I wonder what subsequent voting figures for the three parties would likely be then

Uness something drastic happens i can see SF return with 45+ seats, but that is still short 25 seats, FG will 100% not go into coalition
with SF, and as i posted i reckon FF will also refuse, It could indeed see another snap election called,
Unless FF/FG and others get to 80 and form a government, some will say that is "stealing the election" but the rule is whoever gets 80 seats gets to governm

 

[bluesball]

They would all suffer soundy and we would have to go again.

 

[PROCNA2018]

Uness something drastic happens i can see SF return with 45+ seats, but that is still short 25 seats, FG will 100% not go into coalition
with SF, and as i posted i reckon FF will also refuse, It could indeed see another snap election called,
Unless FF/FG and others get to 80 and form a government, some will say that is "stealing the election" but the rule is whoever gets 80 seats gets to governm

I am at a loss jimmy............current government has 40% and will transfer between them.........in a GE that will probably go up about 5%..........so they get back in maybe even with a few Indies if necessary.

36% gets about 60-65 seats, maybe with a fair wind and a good vote management a few more - where are the other 15-20 coming from?

They would need to breach 40% for there to be any chance and they are then taking percentage points from PBP, SD's and maybe Labour, which means they more they get, the less there are to make a coalition with.

FG won't touch them. FF won't touch them. They have been at 35/36 for months now.

 

[SoundMan]

Uness something drastic happens i can see SF return with 45+ seats, but that is still short 25 seats, FG will 100% not go into coalition
with SF, and as i posted i reckon FF will also refuse, It could indeed see another snap election called,
Unless FF/FG and others get to 80 and form a government, some will say that is "stealing the election" but the rule is whoever gets 80 seats gets to governm

And that's the point. If there was a quick follow-up election how do you think FF, FG, and SF would fare in that. I think a lot of people mightn't be best pleased for SF to be kept out of government by FG and FF and there'd only be one way to get them in.

And of course the DUP could point the finger with a bit of justification at FG FF.

 

[TheOutdoorThreadmill]

And that's the point. If there was a quick follow-up election how do you think FF, FG, and SF would fare in that. I think a lot of people mightn't be best pleased for SF to be kept out of government by FG and FF and there'd only be one way to get them in.

No one is keeping them out of government. They get enough seats they can form a government if the don't they can try form a coalition with other partys. However there is no onus on any party coalesce with them or any party. This rhetoric that they are being kept out of government is propagated by the same "Mary Lou is Taoiseach" morons.

 

[jeepers]

And that's the point. If there was a quick follow-up election how do you think FF, FG, and SF would fare in that. I think a lot of people mightn't be best pleased for SF to be kept out of government by FG and FF and there'd only be one way to get them in.

And of course the DUP could point the finger with a bit of justification at FG FF.

If a majority of the people want SF in government, that's who they'll vote for, surely? FF and FG will campaign on the basis of their policies and if they think that the views of their voters will not be represented by them going into power with the shinners, then surely they'll stay out. They're not denying anyone their democratic mandate. There's fuck all difference between FF and FG, while there is considerable difference with SF and either of the other two. If those two can't or won't get it on, there's nothing that says they have to go in with SF.

 

[jimmym]

sf dont take their seats in westminster as they say they have a mandate from their supporters not to do so, ff fg could say same here re. sf.

 

[bluesball]

When MM steps down as leader of FF then you will see a SF/FF government .