Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine



This is a cemetery of Russian shells that were fired at Kharkiv since February 24. Ukrainian law enforcement officers are recording all the remnants of ammunition, their locations and GPS coordinates. According to Dmytro Chubenko, spokesman for the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office, this will make it possible to work with this evidence base even after a certain period of time and provide proof of Russia's war crimes. Occupiers shell Kharkiv almost every day. Violating all the laws of war, Russians have been killing civilians for 284 days in a row. "Almost every shell from this mountain is someone's ruined life or destroyed home", ? photographer libkos
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All these missiles landed on Kharkiv
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Some interesting attempt to calculate the actual loses:

  • Ukraine's non-returnable losses are about 35,000 soldiers (at least 15,000 dead plus 15,000-20,000 invalids). The total losses are about 100,000 soldiers, which means that 75-80% of the wounded return to the ranks. Very good efficiency of medical services (practically NATO standard - which is a phenomenal achievement considering the size of the army) in terms of WIA ratio is KIA: 6-7 to 1.
  • Losses in dead/dead for Russia: 80,000 (counting everything: Wagners, "republics", etc.). while losses (WIA to KIA) are expected to be 4:1 or an additional 320,000 wounded. It is difficult to estimate the non-returnable losses (invalids) because, on the one hand, a large percentage of people who would be invalids in the UA simply did not return from the front alive and, on the other hand: UA has at its disposal much better medicine from NATO. However, even assuming an analogous 80% return to the line of battle, that would mean 64,000 invalids and 150,000 casualties. The overall ratio of casualties to casualties is therefore more than 4:1 for Russia and the overall ratio of casualties to casualties is slightly less than 4:1. Personally, I think that the casualty ratio may be even higher, but the wounded ratio lower. Of course all this does not take into account prisoners of war. It also explains the scale of mobilization, with its advantages and disadvantages, with a weaker, but still able to fight army (on average - because probably there were worse and better ones).
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27 days until the end of the year
Russians are 8550 dead short of 100,000.
With an average of 328 Russian soldiers killed per day, this number will be reached before the end of the year. And with 500 a day - before Christmas.

A comment to the above from one Ukrainian contact:

Data from military officers I know.
The dead were about 15-20 thousand, no more. 60 thousand wounded, but 52-54 not serious (I don't know what this means and whether this includes the disabled). But the number of civilians is approaching 120,000, and that is without deportees.
I don't know if you can trust 100%, but they operate with such data
 
Last night "an unidentified drone" attacked Russian strategic bombers base at Engels and damaged two TU-95 tactical bombers.

1. Those are used to move nukes but recently were used to shell Ukrainian civil infrastructure.
2. It is 1000km from Ukraine in mainland Russia.
3. Drone managing to go that far only confirms the state of russian AA systems.
 
Last night "an unidentified drone" attacked Russian strategic bombers base at Engels and damaged two TU-95 tactical bombers.

1. Those are used to move nukes but recently were used to shell Ukrainian civil infrastructure.
2. It is 1000km from Ukraine in mainland Russia.
3. Drone managing to go that far only confirms the state of russian AA systems.
Could have been launched from within too.
 
Last night "an unidentified drone" attacked Russian strategic bombers base at Engels and damaged two TU-95 tactical bombers.

1. Those are used to move nukes but recently were used to shell Ukrainian civil infrastructure.
2. It is 1000km from Ukraine in mainland Russia.
3. Drone managing to go that far only confirms the state of russian AA systems.
Ukrainian officials have recently been hinting at developments in the country’s grinding war with Russia. A long-range rocket, perhaps? Or a homemade modified drone? The apparent evidence of a new and unexpected weapon was visible on Monday morning, when mysterious explosions hit two Russian airbases.

Both took place a long way from the frontlines. Video from Russian social media showed a blast at the Engels-2 airbase in Russia’s Saratov region. Another happened at the Dyagilevo military airbase near Ryazan, a city just 150 miles from Moscow and Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin. According to Russian state media, three people at the base were killed and five injured when a fuel truck went up in flames. At least two planes were reportedly damaged.

The exact cause of the explosion was uncertain. But it appears Ukraine has found a way to target Russia’s long range Tu-95 and Tu-22M aircraft, which are stationed at the airstrips. Since October the Kremlin had used these strategic bombers to wreck Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, bit by bit, leaving millions without heat and electricity as winter arrives.

There is speculation Kyiv has developed a strike drone with an astonishing 1,000km range. Late last month a Ukrainian serviceman said the weapon had already been used against the Russian military. If accurate, this means much of European Russia is now in reach. And that the asymmetric advantage Moscow has enjoyed this year – the ability to launch cruise missiles safely from deep inside Russia itself – is under threat.
 
There is speculation Kyiv has developed a strike drone with an astonishing 1,000km range. Late last month a Ukrainian serviceman said the weapon had already been used against the Russian military. If accurate, this means much of European Russia is now in reach. And that the asymmetric advantage Moscow has enjoyed this year – the ability to launch cruise missiles safely from deep inside Russia itself – is under threat.

to be precise:
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I am leaning towards saying that the Engels attack was performed by SOF. However, when we have a look at the recent goodies Ukrainians received from Czechia:

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Today russians shoot 70 missiles on Ukraine as probably a revenge for bombing the air base. @Ethelred already mentioned no water in Odessa as a result. So killing civilians as retaliation - well done terrorist russia... well done you pricks... 60 of those were taken down according to Ukrainians.
Some other photos from today:

It says: The rocket terror continues. Dozens of Russian rockets are flying over Ukraine, depriving Ukrainians of light, heat and life. The air defense is working. In the video - the people of Kiev are hiding in the subway. Russia is a terrorist country, a murderous country!



and some sad news for me personally, Today it was reported that two fellas from International Legion have fallen in Ukraine. Both Poles, one of them, a squad leader Janusz aka Cossack was providing us (and you too) with the first hand updates. Glory to the heroes!

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Janusz was fighting the whole Kharkiv campaign, he died in Lugansk. There was a lot of material from him, he also coordinated help to the fighters on the front there.
 
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