Putins Retreat!
For two decades, Vladimir Putin enforced Russian dominance across the former Soviet space through a simple formula: swift punishment for defiance, lavish rewards for submission. Georgia learned this lesson in 2008 when Russian tanks rolled through its territory. The annexation of Crimea and devastation of Donbas in 2014 reinforced the message: Moscow dictates, others obey.
On July 1, the world received a stark reminder of how far gone that era is, as Azerbaijani police
marched into the local offices of Russian state media. It arrested their leaders and other Russians, some
badly beaten, were paraded for the cameras. The perp walk of Sputnik executives, broadcast gleefully on Azerbaijani television, marked something unprecedented: a former Soviet republic publicly humiliating Moscow without any apparent fear of consequences. Because there will be no consequences. Russia, the one-time regional hegemon, could only issue meek protests blaming Ukrainian provocateurs.
The journey from feared overlord to impotent bystander began, ironically, at what should have been Putin’s moment of maximum strength. On February 22, 2022, Russia and Azerbaijan
signed a “declaration of allied interaction.” Two days later, Russian forces poured into Ukraine, expecting the kind of swift victory that had become Moscow’s calling card. Instead, they sank into a quagmire that drained Russia of much power and credibility.
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, a leader who had survived three decades through careful calibration in his dealings with regional powers, recognized the shift, gambling Russian peacekeepers meant to separate Azerbaijan and Armenia would retreat rather than risk confrontation. By September 2023, Azerbaijan had conquered the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region while Russian peacekeepers stood like bystanders at a mugging. Armenia, its appeals for Russian help ignored,
suspended its membership in the Russian-led CSTO treaty alliance.
Moscow still
courted energy-rich, strategically placed Azerbaijan, but this effort collapsed when Russian air defenses
shot down Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 on Christmas Day 2024, killing 38 after the stricken plane was refused permission to land in Southern Russia. The airliner was allegedly mistaken for a Ukrainian drone. Putin apologized but refused to accept responsibility.
