Must.... Own....property....

[jank]

More than 65% of all rentals in Ireland today, are subsidised by the government, how is that not propping up rental prices?

Is that HAP?
Would you be in favour abolishing it completely and letting the free market do its thing?

 

[How bad boy]

With all due respect HBB, and I don't know if I've argued with you before actually.

But you're so fucking wrong, it's frightening.

It started with Enda Kenny inviting Blackstone capital in, and regularly playing golf with their european CEO.

He got rewarded with a spot on a fund afterwards.

And they're still at it today, I've been a victim of this policy myself, as part of a mass eviction in Eden in Mahon.

I've seen the lives of my peers and friends ruined by this policy, a lot of them are pushing 40, or over, by the time they get keys to a home of their own. I know more than a handful of friends who can't have kids now, because it took them years longer to get a gaff together.

Imagine their retirement? Still paying down a gaff, only to hand a mortgage down to their kids, assuming they managed to pop one out.

The government are merely propping up rental prices, and essentially funding landlords, they needed to build houses 10 years ago, instead they threw a generation under the bus, and any claims of progress being made today are superficial, most are rent only blocs, most are in Dublin, and it's essentially siphoning money out of Ireland.

More than 65% of all rentals in Ireland today, are subsidised by the government, how is that not propping up rental prices?

And really, fuck all to show for it, a booming economy, with fuck all really built in that time, another wasted opportunity.


ah no, I know like, he's an absolute wanker.

But they have a few valid points.

It wouldn't be my go to like.

I have no doubt Ireland has been in bed with the construction industry and landlords. That's been true for decades and led to ruin in the Celtic Tiger era.

I really hold no candle for the current government.

But it does look like that at least in the last year or two, things are improving.

The root cause of the housing and rental crisis that is being experienced in many western markets hasn't been properly understood by the economics community generally. Certainly the wealth inequality aspect of it hasn't been appreciated widely.
I think that has changed in the last couple of years.

 

[Stacky]

"That was way too many at 1 time"
If I suggested one idea you'd have said "is that it?"

Your downsizing idea is nonsense.
Older people shouldn't have to downsize.
They may live in an area near to their grandkids, where they are a massive support.
Or the kids/ grandkids could be their only social outlet.
We're in the middle of a housing crisis
Where on earth should they downsize to?
No talk of anyone having to downsize for decades and now that suddenly becomes the norm?
Talk about a disaster.
"Downsizing" is your only idea?

Is this your only idea?

FSG OUT said:
No house should be more than €200k.

"Downsizing" has been around for decades.

Old couples and widows rattling around in big houses that they can hardly afford to clean, maintain inside & out or heat makes little sense.

 

[How bad boy]

"That was way too many at 1 time"
If I suggested one idea you'd have said "is that it?"

Your downsizing idea is nonsense.
Older people shouldn't have to downsize.
They may live in an area near to their grandkids, where they are a massive support.
Or the kids/ grandkids could be their only social outlet.
We're in the middle of a housing crisis
Where on earth should they downsize to?
No talk of anyone having to downsize for decades and now that suddenly becomes the norm?
Talk about a disaster.
"Downsizing" is your only idea?

The Celtic Tiger era rate of build was too high.

Downsizing is very much a problem. It's not my only idea, but IMO, it's one of those obvious problems to fix.

You have a lot of elderly people living in large family homes and a lot of young families struggling to get along in tiny apartments.

Do you think that's sensible?

Incidentally, in other countries, downsizing when people get older is very, very common.

 

[Stacky]

Lots of people are downsizing and building on granny flats in the large gardens of larger houses.

 

[TheOutdoorThreadmill]

Is this your only idea?

That's my nom sorted for this year

 

[jank]

(1)Admit theres a crisis and treat it as such. Releasing homeless figures on the last Friday of the month is scandalous.
If they released Covid figures on the last Friday of every month there'd have been uproar. Show some respect.
(2).They keep saying their plan is working.
Fucking prove it so. Have a monthly press conference showing precisely what the figures were last month, what the figures were this month.
Show us what worked/what didn't work.
Show us what the plan is for next month/next year/the next 5 years.

So you do, or do not want a monthly press conference?

4)O Brien can no longer hide and lie.
He claims 32000 new builds in 2023 was the highest since records began.

He never said that, and I am not really a fan of him.

6)Have a rent freeze.

This has been shown to be a disaster of a policy anywhere its been tried.

 

[jank]

It's very concentrated though. Even within Ireland, there's 10x differences in housing costs between regions.

It's why I don't think it's purely a problem of supply and that there's something to Gary Stephenson's Capital vs Labour idea. I wasn't fully convinced when Thomas Piketty brought it back into public attention a decade ago, but it explains what I consider to be otherwise incomprehensible housing/asset markets in certain regions of the globe

Simply the case of supply and demand.
Demand in urban Ireland, especially in the likes of Dublin is through the roof.

Not that many people want to move to Leitrim.

 

[FSG OUT]

So you do, or do not want a monthly press conference?


He never said that, and I am not really a fan of him.

This has been shown to be a disaster of a policy anywhere its been tried.

Have a monthly press conference but at prime time, a lá Covid.
You didn't see Mehole speaking to us about Covid at 3.30pm on a Friday afternoon did you?
Did Holohan and co release figures and not have a press conference.
They always did it at 6pm.
Same needs to be done here.

Fatty O Brien claimed at the 2023 FF Ard Fheis that 32000 new builds was a record since records began.
He 100% said that.

He's a clown.
Utterly unfit for office.

 

[jank]

That doesn't make it right.
We're a tiny little dot in the middle of nowhere with a tiny population.
House prices should not be rising like they are.
Higher than the Celtic Tiger high.
What's next?
Our kids paying €2m,3m for houses?
Needing €300k deposits.
It's fucking ridiculous.

I never said it was right, but again, you seem to think a house should not be more than 200k.
How can that be if a builder cannot build one for anywhere near that?

The median wage in Ireland is approx €45k a year.
Most households have 2 people working, which makes €90k in household income as an average.
Then it's all about servicing that debt used to buy a property.
90*4 = €360k

360k+10% deposit is approx €390-€400k
It is simply economics that is driving this.

You mention the Celtic Tiger.
Can I ask, what was the median wage in 2008?
A lot lower than now.

Having LTV of 4.0 is actually quite conservative given our EU neighbours and others in the Western world.
In OZ, it can be as high as 8/9/10.
That is one of the reasons the average price of a house in Sydney is the guts of $1.7 million (approx €1.1 million)
Same issue in NZ
Same issue in Canada
Same issue in many parts of the US
Same issue in greater London
Same issue in Sweden
Same issue in Holland
Same issue in... you get the point

Even in today's crap Irish market, the average couple can buy something half decent in many cities (maybe exl Dublin) and certainly in most counties.
The issue really isn't about the price of a house in many parts of the country, it's the lack of supply of houses. There are just too many people on good salaries chasing too few houses.
Fix the supply issue and the rest will look after itself in time.

I agree that this Macro issue is having a big impact on the social contract and is causing intergenerational issues. Have a peep at South Korea and see why their birth rate is the worst in the world. Countries the world over have gotten rich post WWII and some generations have done well from rising asset prices, good jobs market, and globalisation. The under-40's though, have gotten the bad end of the stick and politics has yet to catch up.
But this is an insanely complicated issue and populist rants wont fix it.