European and Local elections thread.

[jimmym]

Is William o Leary ex FF? He may pull some of that vote,

 

[Crankycorner]

Is William o Leary ex FF? He may pull some of that vote,

He is. Posters everywhere and it seems like he has significant financial backing.

 

[Crankycorner]

FF took nearly 50% of the vote last time. They won't get near that next week albeit will hope to retain 2 seats in what is a fairly traditional area in terms of voting. Be big ask for FG to keep two seats but both candidates have big personal vote so in with a chance. Roche as indo should retain his seat and despite poor recent polls, SF should be well up on their local election 2019 showing so O' Brien should be a shoo-in for them to regain seat they lost in 2019.

Kay Dawson to lose out to O’Brien?

 

[ollie_out_west]

Kay Dawson to lose out to O’Brien?

Noel McCarthy topped the poll last time out, not sure will that be the case again but I'd expect him to be returned, think he'd have a good personal vote in Fermoy, he's well established there, Labour's candidate seems to be putting in a good bit of an effort but is very unlikely to feature in the later counts.

The most interesting one will be how Blighe performs in Fermoy LEA, inknow you were saying there's a chance he could take a seat but im not seeing it, the majority of people in Fermoy and Mitchelstown I've spoken to are well aware of the type of person he is, couldn't see how he'd transfer even if he got a decent amount of first preferences, but this will be a very unusual election so expect a few surprises.

 

[Crankycorner]

Noel McCarthy topped the poll last time out, not sure will that be the case again but I'd expect him to be returned, think he'd have a good personal vote in Fermoy, he's well established there, Labour's candidate seems to be putting in a good bit of an effort but is very unlikely to feature in the later counts.

The most interesting one will be how Blighe performs in Fermoy LEA, inknow you were saying there's a chance he could take a seat but im not seeing it, the majority of people in Fermoy and Mitchelstown I've spoken to are well aware of the type of person he is, couldn't see how he'd transfer even if he got a decent amount of first preferences, but this will be a very unusual election so expect a few surprises.

What I’m very disappointed about is that William O’Leary and Frank Roche are Blighe lite and will be returned. O’Leary especially has said some terrible things and has gladly associated himself with Blighe.

 

[ollie_out_west]

What I’m very disappointed about is that William O’Leary and Frank Roche are Blighe lite and will be returned. O’Leary especially has said some terrible things and has gladly associated himself with Blighe.

Yea he's a clown, but will get returned I'd say. FF have that young lad Cotter running in place of O'Leary but don't think he's a big enough profile to take the seat.

The only good think about roach and o'leary is that they may take some of the votes that may have went to Blighe.

 

[jimmym]

Cork city south central 6 seats, I predict
Sean martin FF,
Shane o callaghan FG,
Fiona kerins SF
Paidi Dinneen independent,
Last two up for grabs, FF have a David Boyle and Greens Have Dan Boyle, SF have luke Mcgrath, ,
Soc Dems Padraig Rice, few more independents, Aontu, PBP

 

[North Cork Star]

FF X2 FG X2 SF X1 INDEPENDENT X1

I'm thinking roughly the same Jimmy.

Going on previous polls, Noel McCarthy, Deirdre O' Brien and Frank O' Flynn are almost certs to get in. Joe O' Brien as the sole Sinn Féin candidate in the area might squeeze a seat. Kay Dawson will be fighting for her seat. William O' Leary, former FF councillor is running a massive campaign as an independent. Huge posters everywhere and very vocal about immigration. He might retain his seat. I think with greater competition this time around, Frank Roche's seat is also under threat. Nelius Cotter also residing in Castletownroche might take a few votes off of Frank. Peter O' Donoghue, another independent is running a big campaign and might be a dark horse. Derek Blighe will get votes but strangely enough could do better in the European vote than in the Local Election vote.

 

[Crankycorner]

Yea he's a clown, but will get returned I'd say. FF have that young lad Cotter running in place of O'Leary but don't think he's a big enough profile to take the seat.

The only good think about roach and o'leary is that they may take some of the votes that may have went to Blighe.

That’s true. And the likes of Peter O Donoghue running may take votes from Blighe too. He’s not as extreme on immigration as Blighe but no less a clown. Mattie McGrath has given him a helping hand.

 

[The Banker]

Multiple anti immigration independents and representatives of very small parties running with a similar policy will only mean they will cannibalise each others vote and gain no traction.
There lack of intelligence there for all to see..

But they will take all the ‘anti everything’ vote from the shinners and hurt them more than anyone else.
I think that’s already being shown in the poles..