Don't be daft, there is a 100% chance of the French court finding him guilty, and then pressuring our government to extradite him.
This will be a real test of the kind of man Coveney is. Will he throw him to the wolves are will he look at the case and say that there's a good chance he isn't actually guilty.
Given that we essentially dont have a defence force willing to shoot and Coveney is of weak charachter......could french special forces working with their secret service drug and snatch Bailey and do a rendition back to france.
They have form in this.....remember they snatched Carlos the Jackal when he was having liposuction on his love handles.
An advance team would arrive and do surveillience for a few days.
The snatch team would then strike at dusk, dart bailey and knock jules out for a few hours. Bailey would be bungled into a van and driven to an isolated cove. A rib would speed him out say 10 to 20 miles where they would rendovous with another vessel and the rib scuttled. Other vessel could then proceed to of load him to a french naval vessel where he is arrested.as soon as vessel is in range of france he is tranferred via helicopter.
If they had say a 12 hour period where the alarm isnt raised then the snatch and surveillance teams would be over the border or out of the country on commercial flights. Bailey would be well out in international waters and well beyond the range of any irish response....not that there would be one.
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