the official betting thread.

[Donald Trump]

M'bappe is now best priced 1.85.

 

[Donald Trump]

Kevin Pullein: Scores change with the weather at lower altitudes in the EFL

Soccer Boffin Kevin Pullein offers his weekly dose of betting wisdom

www.racingpost.com

 

[Philby]

Kevin Pullein: Scores change with the weather at lower altitudes in the EFL

Soccer Boffin Kevin Pullein offers his weekly dose of betting wisdom

www.racingpost.com

Two fairly intuitive points he's made there. Would be interesting to see if the actual EFL closing lines on o/u 2.5 reflected the seasonality effect.

Hadn't seen this book previously. Going for ~£4.50 on amazon. Probably worth a flick through but it's close to 15 years old now, so wouldn't expect there's much actionable insight in it.

The Definitive Guide to Betting on Football (Racing Post Expert Series): Amazon.co.uk: Kevin Pullein: 9781905153657: Books

Buy The Definitive Guide to Betting on Football (Racing Post Expert Series) by Kevin Pullein (ISBN: 9781905153657) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.

www.amazon.co.uk

 

[Donald Trump]

Two fairly intuitive points he's made there. Would be interesting to see if the actual EFL closing lines on o/u 2.5 reflected the seasonality effect.

Hadn't seen this book previously. Going for ~£4.50 on amazon. Probably worth a flick through but it's close to 15 years old now, so wouldn't expect there's much actionable insight in it.

The Definitive Guide to Betting on Football (Racing Post Expert Series): Amazon.co.uk: Kevin Pullein: 9781905153657: Books

Buy The Definitive Guide to Betting on Football (Racing Post Expert Series) by Kevin Pullein (ISBN: 9781905153657) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.

www.amazon.co.uk

I remember Cloudy posting about how the xG got ridiculously low at times and thought this might partially explain it.

Never read his book. I'd imagine the research skills might still be relevant. He's meticulous in that from his columns on the RP

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Are we gonna score tonight?

 

[Philby]

Are we gonna score tonight?

Goals are for egos.

Bazunu's odds of getting booked are lengthening, but really should be shortening the longer the game goes without a France goal. 12/1 now. Double with a 0-0 currently 40/1 at HT.

 

[nelly sham]

1-1 draw with Gibraltar coming.

 

[Philby]

I played about in python to scrape game-by-game stats from understat and build some basic formulae to work out how much each team was overperforming or underperforming xG on a 3 and 5 game basis (e.g. over the past 5 games Leeds have, on average, a goal difference of 1 goal higher per game than the xG and xGA numbers would suggest).

For the nerdier amongst us, I used Chat GPT to help build the formulae which cycle through the fixtures & compute the rolling 3 and 5 game averages.

The tables are sorted based on their xG over/under performance in the last 3 games

• The higher a team is on these rankings: the worse their goal difference is relative to xG/xGA
• The lower a team is on these rankings: the better their goal difference is relative to xG/xGA

Obviously there's no info here that the betting market hasn't already priced in, but it might put some teams on your radar to consider backing or opposing if you think they might return to the norm in terms of being efficient / inefficient at each end .

 

[Donald Trump]

That's some good stuff there Phil.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

I played about in python to scrape game-by-game stats from understat and build some basic formulae to work out how much each team was overperforming or underperforming xG on a 3 and 5 game basis (e.g. over the past 5 games Leeds have, on average, a goal difference of 1 goal higher per game than the xG and xGA numbers would suggest).

For the nerdier amongst us, I used Chat GPT to help build the formulae which cycle through the fixtures & compute the rolling 3 and 5 game averages.

The tables are sorted based on their xG over/under performance in the last 3 games

• The higher a team is on these rankings: the worse their goal difference is relative to xG/xGA
• The lower a team is on these rankings: the better their goal difference is relative to xG/xGA

Obviously there's no info here that the betting market hasn't already priced in, but it might put some teams on your radar to consider backing or opposing if you think they might return to the norm in terms of being efficient / inefficient at each end .

I wouldn't mind having the skills to pull this together so easily.

A suggestion from me (though you may already be doing it) would be to also have these tables for the last 10 matches/20 matches/full season worth of matches, so that you can see a bigger picture of what's happening.

Things that are happening in the last 3-5 games could just be a correction to things that were going on before that, and could be just as likely to continue for a while rather than regress.