the official betting thread.

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

That was fascinating.

<heads off to find the best price on Harris>

I must give a listen, as I haven't done yet.

 

[Philby]

Anytime goalscorer trixie.

Trickiest thing is trying to anticipate which players won't be rested after an hour to keep them fresh for the weekend.

 

[Meritocracy]

Racing Club to beat Corinthians - 21/20

 

[Meritocracy]

Racing Club to score the 2nd goal - 8/11

30 mins gone.

 

[Meritocracy]

U. Catolica (Chile) 5th goal - 3/1

 

[Meritocracy]

Defensa y Justicia first goal - 6/4

 

[Meritocracy]

Defensa y Justicia first goal - 6/4

 

[Philby]

Lewa looks decent value for CL top scorer @ 12/1.

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

James Wade GSOD 55/1 ew, Star Sports.

 

[Philby]

I haven't got involved in betting on the US election, but it's interesting to see the gap between the main data crunchers and the odds markets

538 and Nate Silver both make it close to a coin-toss.

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

So fine: let's go to the tiebreaker round.

www.natesilver.net

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Whereas on the betting side:

Betfair (£187m matched so far) make a Trump win a 61% likelhood (...he shortened 2-3% in the last hour and ~4% since dinner time yesterday)
Polymarket have him at 63%
Kalshi have him at 57%

Given the margins in the battleground states are pretty narrow (+/- 1%) a whole host of outcomes are very much still on the table - from a very tight finish to a comfortable win either way.

With that in mind Kamala Harris doesn't look a bad bet at 13/8. Maybe even a decent back to lay prospect as she'll trend towards evens if she holds her own in the first couple of swings states.