the official betting thread.

[Nollaig O Muracu]

I haven't got involved in betting on the US election, but it's interesting to see the gap between the main data crunchers and the odds markets

538 and Nate Silver both make it close to a coin-toss.

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

So fine: let's go to the tiebreaker round.

www.natesilver.net

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Whereas on the betting side:

Betfair (£187m matched so far) make a Trump win a 61% likelhood (...he shortened 2-3% in the last hour and ~4% since dinner time yesterday)
Polymarket have him at 63%
Kalshi have him at 57%

Given the margins in the battleground states are pretty narrow (+/- 1%) a whole host of outcomes are very much still on the table - from a very tight finish to a comfortable win either way.

With that in mind Kamala Harris doesn't look a bad bet at 13/8. Maybe even a decent back to lay prospect as she'll trend towards evens if she holds her own in the first couple of swings states.

Aye, I backed her at 6/4 on Friday after listening to the SBC podcast Cloudy posted. The guest made a hell of a case for Harris to win.


So with that, and thinking I was getting 6/4 on a coin toss I backed her. I might have backed Trump had the odds been reversed tbh.

 

[Philby]

So with that, and thinking I was getting 6/4 on a coin toss I backed her. I might have backed Trump had the odds been reversed tbh.

I'd be of the same view. There are so many variables at play I don't know how anyone can have a strong view either way.

 

[Philby]

AGS trixie

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Sky bet are offering 11/2 on Onana to make 4 saves tonight. I have no facts or figures to back that up, but on pure instinct, with the defence United have put out, unless PAOK have 11 one legged players, that screams value at me (Even with the first choice back four out I'd be having a poke at that)

 

[Philby]

Sky bet are offering 11/2 on Onana to make 4 saves tonight. I have no facts or figures to back that up, but on pure instinct, with the defence United have put out, unless PAOK have 11 one legged players, that screams value at me (Even with the first choice back four out I'd be having a poke at that)

That looks v good value, given the odds below (and Betway being massive market outliers in SoT price)

 

[Meritocracy]

Watford to beat Oxford - 3/4

 

[Philby]

Sky bet are offering 11/2 on Onana to make 4 saves tonight. I have no facts or figures to back that up, but on pure instinct, with the defence United have put out, unless PAOK have 11 one legged players, that screams value at me (Even with the first choice back four out I'd be having a poke at that)

Great shout. 4 saves (and 4 SoT) right on the nose! And landed with 25+ minutes to go too.

I also backed at 2+, 3+ , 4+ SoT with Betway...just because their odds were so out of line with the general market

e.g. 2/1 on 4+ wheras most were ~8/5 and some were odds-on

 

[Philby]

NZ are evens with a 5.5 pt handicap! Looks value. I think they'll starter faster than us here. Could find ourselves playing catch-up

 

[Meritocracy]

Palmeiras ht/ft - 10/11

 

[Meritocracy]

Palmeiras 2nd goal - 11/10