Situation in Ukraine affects the whole world, no doubt. I am following more and more what is happening in the Central Asia, as I believe this is only a start to the definite collapse of the evil emporium of Russia causing tremendous suffering to all its neighbors last 200 years. Here is extremely interesting post from one of the boards I follow:
I know that I should write this in the Central Asia / Kazakhstan thread, but what is happening is very important in the context of the war in Ukraine because it is the evident weakness of the "nuclear superpower" that has become a destabilizing factor, and any change in the status quo means a weakening of Russia's position. Central Asia are completely ignored in the Polish and Western media on a par with any unrest in Africa, and from our point of view this is a terrible mistake because the region can quickly become the second front. Mirzoyev gave the order to fire at the demonstrators (from 20 to 80 people died depending on the sources) but since Maduro stopped being so bad and Iran is pretty cool guys... an opportunity presents itself to undermine Moscow's position, even at the cost of supporting individuals of dubious reputation. I wrote more than once on the forum) the outbreak of local armed conflicts in 2 years, where Russia will be forced to intervene more or less directly. There are a lot of hot spots. Possible conflicts are (in my subjective opinion about the probability):
-coup / overthrow / civil war in Tajikistan
- Home War / Karakalpak Secession in Uzbekistan
- the Tajik-Kyrgyz war
- Russo-Kazakh war
The entire political scene of the ex-Soviet republics is very complicated and we should discuss practically every country separately, but I will try to literally draw a rough picture of what, where and how, in literally two three sentences.
Azerbaijan- about the 90s in conflict with the Armenians due to the status of Nagorno-Karabakh inhabited by the Armenian population. In addition to political reasons, the region is important in terms of the export of Azerbaijani oil to the west to the ports on the Black Sea, which Baku was striving for because in this matter they were always pressed by Russia. Currently, the Azeris, by intensifying their cooperation with Turkey, have practically broken out of Moscow's influence, regained part of Karabakh and, in accordance with the will of the aliens sultan, are implementing Ankara's policy on the Caspian Sea, which will not leave them passive to the situation in the X-States. Turkey with Azerbaijani hands will want a piece of the cake.
Tajikistan - the country ruled by Rahman and his clique is an evident example of the rule in the "rebellions". Centrally controlled autarky run by the family-party system headed by the omnipotent president. Both the "emperor" and the entire establishment deteriorate over time. more which manifests itself in a progressive decline in the quality of government and the economic crisis. Tajdjikistan was the poorest ex-republic in the 90s, thanks to the opening to China in the 10 years there was a significant improvement in life and economic development, but at the cost of becoming a semicircle of Beijing, which began to hurt the local population (a few from Tashkent get yuan, so they don't care). Recent economic problems have caused a series of pseudo-reforms by Rahman that Maduro himself would not be ashamed of. The situation is particularly dramatic in agriculture, which is on the brink of a precipice, to such an extent that food rationing began in some regions already a year ago, and the harvest prospects for this year are not very positive. Tajikistan cannot afford to import food at abnormal prices in 2022, and the degenerated government, in response to problems, tightens the bolt of the inhabitants and is violently looking for an external enemy (see Kyrgyzstan)
Kyrgyzstan - if I called Tajikistan a semi-colony, Kyrgyzstan is completely divided between all corporations, especially Chinese business and Western mining companies that de facto create a state within a state. Kyrgyzstan has been in a permanent crisis of power since the beginning of the 21st century (three coups / revolutions in 20 years), local warlords (often drenched in trafficking in Afghan heroin) and clan leaders have more say than the legal government. The enormous corruption, lawlessness, ethnic conflicts, poverty and the total awkwardness of the COVID government have made the country barely hold together. the flavor is added by the fact that there was a total collapse of economic emigration to Russia, which for many years was an important source of income for the population. For this we have three external problems: Uyghurs from China are fleeing to Kyrgyzstan and Beijing has complained that "extremist" groups are gathering there, the new prime minister of Kyrgyzstan, Japarov, has a strong nationalist program and emphasizes some ethnic conflicts with Uzbekistan, and there is more and more problems with the "water war" with Tajikistan.
Tajiks produce more than 90% of electricity from hydroelectric power plants and their cotton farming takes a huge amount of them, which leads to regular droughts in the neighbor. In addition, poorly urgulated borders and disputes with Kyrgyz shepherds who drink animals abroad do not make the matter any easier. This year, the situation got so inflamed that there was an exchange of artillery fire between countries in which several people died on both sides.
Sorry if the transaction is not perfect, I am trying my best. More in the next entry (limit)
mises.org
www.channel4.com
www.politico.eu
