Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine

[Dr. Aaoouh]

It's will not, rather than can not, unfortunately. It looks very much like this war has been lost, Putin has been encouraged and more republics will fall in the next few years.

I wouldn’t count Ukraine out yet. Russians vastly outnumbered the Afghans and ended up having to run away. (Ditto for America). Putin’s stated goal is the literal destruction of Ukraine and he’s nowhere near that. Putin still has lots of ways to lose.

 

[catcha]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778043692911083586

 

[catcha]

Putin’s stated goal is the literal destruction of Ukraine

true...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778308983645741202

Tripilska TPP, all three blocks are destroyed:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778353557281894806

 

[catcha]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778394368992329948

 

[CaptainSensible]

I wouldn’t count Ukraine out yet. Russians vastly outnumbered the Afghans and ended up having to run away. (Ditto for America). Putin’s stated goal is the literal destruction of Ukraine and he’s nowhere near that. Putin still has lots of ways to lose.

I'm not sure they are comparable, both Russia and the US lost relatively few soldiers in Afganistan, as there were no outright battles just a series of skirmishes, both didn't leave because they got a kicking more the realization that the costs of staying there were too high versus what they eventually realised was no return/benefit.

And remember they were both there for a good many years, before they became bored, you would hope this current war doesn't drag on that long but all the signs are it will unless one side gets a decisive advantage. Currently Russia seems to be gaining a slight upper hand but all that really depends on the response of the west.

 

[Dr. Aaoouh]

I'm not sure they are comparable, both Russia and the US lost relatively few soldiers in Afganistan, as there were no outright battles just a series of skirmishes, both didn't leave because they got a kicking more the realization that the costs of staying there were too high versus what they eventually realised was no return/benefit.

And remember they were both there for a good many years, before they became bored, you would hope this current war doesn't drag on that long but all the signs are it will unless one side gets a decisive advantage. Currently Russia seems to be gaining a slight upper hand but all that really depends on the response of the west.

I think we have been hearing a lot lately the idea that the Russians are eventually going to field a much larger army than Ukraine, overwhelm the Ukrainians, and win the war. And at least in the States, despite all that Putin himself has written about wanting to utterly eliminate Ukraine, its society, and its language and culture, the war is just about annexing some land that a bunch of Russian speakers live on already. So there has been developing a push in the West in some circles that Ukraine should "negotiate", give up those lands, and end the bloodshed.

But Ukrainians read Putin's own statements about his war aims. Even if Ukraine agreed to give up Donbass and all claims to Crimea, Russia would also demand Ukrainian demilitarization, demand that Ukraine not join NATO or the EU, and demand that Ukraine install a pro-Russian government. And having done this, Russia would invade again. Ukraine knows that it is fighting for its life. For that reason, the only way for Putin to win is to outright conquer it. Russia is not able to do that.

So my point about Afghanistan is that there is more than one way to lose. And right now, Russia is not winning.

 

[Dr. Aaoouh]

Here's a Wikipedia link to Putin's main article on the subject of the non-existence of Ukraine. But he has written a number of others. There is a link to the original in the Wiki article, which is archived on the Kremlin website, but the Kremlin link isn't (ahem) working too well.

On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[BoggyRoad]

And right now, Russia is not winning.

….. neither is Ukraine though

 

[Dr. Aaoouh]

….. neither is Ukraine though

This isn’t particularly helpful way to look at this. Russia wasn’t winning though in 1941-42. Britain wasn’t winning though during the same period.

Ukraine is protecting its culture and language and its right to be a democratic sovereign state. Until it goes entirely under and is absorbed by Russia, it’s not really losing in a major sense.

 

[poulgorm]

I wouldn’t count Ukraine out yet. Russians vastly outnumbered the Afghans and ended up having to run away. (Ditto for America).

Afghanistan - totally different terrain to Ukraine. Afghanistan is almost totally mountainous - Ukraine is almost totally flat.

Lots of places for clusters of soldiers to safely hide in Afghanistan - made for effective guerrilla warfare.

Set piece battles can't be avoided in Ukraine's flat plains. If the Russians have 10 times the number of troops & 7 times the artillery / heavy weaponry, there can be only one winner.

It's hard to understand the mentality of the Republicans in Congress - consigning the Ukrainians to inevitable defeat. Insanity.

If Russia has the resources to open up a second front from the North again, via Belarus - the show will be over by the end of the Summer.