Paris Olympics, 2024

Bolt never ran the 400 where the peak is about 26 years. It is the toughest race in athletics and I am sure if Bolt trained for 400 he would have smashed Ml Johnsons record but he never put himself through the pain barrier of 400 training--the 100 and 200 was a lot easier.
Of course she will improve as she continues to mature as long as she stays injury free.

Adeleke is 21st All time. If you take out known dopers and any time set before 1990 she's about 12th.

If she goes from that to dominating the event like Bolt did it'll be dodgy.

She has the potential to be the best in the world but her turning 26 won't unlock some magic formula for her by La, she is in group of about 5 who can win it this year.

By LA i would expect something similar. Sydney is only 24, her coach has openly spoken about 47s, Athing Mu ran 49.24 as a 19 year old and is being held out of the event by her (and Sydney's) coach.

She is a sensation but the Bolt comparison is a bit Lazy.
 
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Swim Ireland Irish Open and Olympic Trials on in the NAC from yesterday until Sunday evening. No shock additions to the Paris Team expected - but quite a few possibles. There are a good few swimmers knocking on the door but some of their targets are still a bit beyond reach.

Of the ones closest:
  • Nathan Wifffen needs 7:51 in the 800 free final tonight, off a current PB of 7:56, set in yesterday's heats. I'm not sure if he has the CT for another shot at the Euros in June so this may be it. Hopefully the twin brother can pull him along. Nathan going to Paris would be a good boost for Daniel's podium hopes

  • In the 50 free, the "washing machine" and a real game of inches, Tom Fannon is super-close (swam 22.02 against a target of 21.96). There's 0.06 sec between him and Paris. His final is later tonight

  • Max McCusker just keeps on improving, banging in another PB in the 100 fly, but might find the extra 0.4 sec needed to be a bridge too far in the final tonight

  • Danielle Hill already got the Paris QT in 100 back last night and is competing in the 100 free final this evening. Not sure she'll get the QT

  • Evan Bailey continues his phenomenal (in Irish terms) junior progress, nailing yet another record in the 100 fly, but is 1.8 sec short of Olympic QT

  • With a meet record, Daragh "Ever"Greene is half a second off the 100 breastroke QT. If he doesn't make it in the semi later or the final tomorrow then, like Bailey, Fannon and McCusker, he has another go in Serbia at the Euros

A bit like the rowing, these are heady times for Irish Swimming. The above list is in addition to the swimmers and relays already qualified for Paris. A decent run of finals could see us with a massive team for Paris - but a not-so-good run will see a more modest-sized group. Again, like the rowing, it's not that long since we'd have max one or two qualifying athletes - and thoughts of a relay would be a complete pipe-dream. It's a major credit to John Rudd and the national high-performance program.
 
Looks like Fannon’s done it!
Went 21.94 in the final this evening. Time is listed as “unofficial “ ATM but there seems to be no issues. Class.

No joy for the other lads - brave swim from Ethan W but didn’t make the number - still a few seconds short.
 
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Swim Ireland Irish Open and Olympic Trials on in the NAC from yesterday until Sunday evening. No shock additions to the Paris Team expected - but quite a few possibles. There are a good few swimmers knocking on the door but some of their targets are still a bit beyond reach.

Of the ones closest:
  • Nathan Wifffen needs 7:51 in the 800 free final tonight, off a current PB of 7:56, set in yesterday's heats. I'm not sure if he has the CT for another shot at the Euros in June so this may be it. Hopefully the twin brother can pull him along. Nathan going to Paris would be a good boost for Daniel's podium hopes

  • In the 50 free, the "washing machine" and a real game of inches, Tom Fannon is super-close (swam 22.02 against a target of 21.96). There's 0.06 sec between him and Paris. His final is later tonight

  • Max McCusker just keeps on improving, banging in another PB in the 100 fly, but might find the extra 0.4 sec needed to be a bridge too far in the final tonight

  • Danielle Hill already got the Paris QT in 100 back last night and is competing in the 100 free final this evening. Not sure she'll get the QT

  • Evan Bailey continues his phenomenal (in Irish terms) junior progress, nailing yet another record in the 100 fly, but is 1.8 sec short of Olympic QT

  • With a meet record, Daragh "Ever"Greene is half a second off the 100 breastroke QT. If he doesn't make it in the semi later or the final tomorrow then, like Bailey, Fannon and McCusker, he has another go in Serbia at the Euros

A bit like the rowing, these are heady times for Irish Swimming. The above list is in addition to the swimmers and relays already qualified for Paris. A decent run of finals could see us with a massive team for Paris - but a not-so-good run will see a more modest-sized group. Again, like the rowing, it's not that long since we'd have max one or two qualifying athletes - and thoughts of a relay would be a complete pipe-dream. It's a major credit to John Rudd and the national high-performance program.
Who is to come back into the 1500m since Doha? is it just yer man Finke?

Wiffen must be shorter odds for a medal than Adeleke?
 
Who is to come back into the 1500m since Doha? is it just yer man Finke?

Wiffen must be shorter odds for a medal than Adeleke?
Yep, Finke is there - and you also have the Aussie, Sam Short, who held off Wiffen for the bronze at the 2023 Worlds. The Tunisian lad, Haffnaoui, won gold in that race in a shootout with Finke. Paltrinieri is still in the mix and if Florian Wellbrock gets going then he's a contender too.

So maybe Wiffen is shorter odds than Adeleke - but not by much. There are some serious operators up against him.

Experience is a big deal in the 1500 - especially if things are tight through the middle of the race. Wiffen slumped to 4th (LOL, if 4th in the World can be considered a slump) in the final last year most likely because of inexperience - he effectively psyched himself out of it beforehand and was well left by the big push in the middle of the race. The other contendoers here are well experienced. That defeat was his first real steback in a long time and it must have hurt him. He came hurtling back into the picture at the European SC at the end of '23 and then the reduced Worlds earlier this year. Only him and his coach (and, presumably, the brother) know his real form ATM.

Sun Yang's dodgy record has been there quite a while now. It could well get beaten this summer. I wonder can anyone go sub 14:30 - that would mean sub-58 splits :oops:
 
Can't see tbh. I think France with Dupont will be unstoppable, and they are home. The Kiwi's are very strong. I would like to see the groups first, it's a strange sport as it usually run off at a weekend so if you hit form that weekend then who knows.
It's strange, for most of the sports discussed above, winning an Olympic medal is the absolute pinnacle - there is no higher achievement in the game and the gold is usually a lifetime achievement.

But for stuff like golf, tennis, rugby, road cycling etc., the Olympics is just another tournament in a packed season and the bigger competitions are outside of the Olympics. As a result, in these sports, some athletes take it seriously (e.g. the tennis used to be a big deal for Agassi or the Williams sisters) but other athletes don't really turn up at all. So for a sport like rugby sevens, you have no idea who will be there or, as you say, who will have a run of form.
 
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