Donald Trump
Full Member
She min raised the turn and called his Allin.
Other than that, yeah I agree with you.
She min raised the turn and called his Allin.
I should have added to this that when the bigger clubs flag as possibly being worth opposing, I've decided to take the more conservative approach and get with their opponents scoring rather than having too much on them winning (it's so bloody hard to get the big clubs beaten in most leagues these days), hence the bts for PSG & Real. I also did it for Napoli this weekend so had a nice little hat trick there, though I know it won't always be so easy.
Alright. Here's something to mull over across your lunchtime.
I've whipped up a version of the Elo model for the Premier League, using the rankings source below. Let's see how it goes this weekend.
Football Club Elo Ratings
clubelo.com
I've kept the W/D/L percentages as per the international model for now (...even though the PL has a heavier weighting against away wins - 49%/28%/22%)
To make it a bit more practical let's start with a bank of 100 units and follow the staking plan below.
High: Over 25% - Back or Lay big (3 unit)
Medium: 10% to 25% - Back or Lay (2 unit)
Low: 5% to 10% - Back or Lay small (1 unit)
No bet: Under 5% - Ignore
Rules of thumb
1. If the model proposes both a back & a lay, place half stakes for each
2. If model proposes that there's a value angle in all 3 outcomes (e.g. back the home, lay the draw & away) aim to back the two outcomes with the highest % diff vs bookies, as long as the bets are consistent (e.g. don't back home win & draw)
3. For Lay bets, use the "back" odds plus 0.1, to roughly replicate the exchange margin (typically ranges from 0.05 to 0.2 but is most often 0.1)
With the criteria above it proposes bets on 17 outcomes across the 10 games. I'd be expecting a lot of variance on the "high" category.
I think I'll start with tracking two approaches:
A - Track the profits & losses for the approach above (17 bets this week, with stakes of 16.5 units)
B - Track the profits & losses if I only bet on the strongest recommended play in each game with full stakes (10 bets this week, with stakes of 21 units)
