Swanforthelough
Full Member
The difference in Afghanistan, the advantage was going to be on the side of those local warlords who were well armed and more importantly knew the rugged terrain inside out, had an intelligence network from the local goat herder to the village elders. Also many were already battle hardened from Soviet days and ensuing tribal battles. They were able to bring the fight on their terms and always the US led forces were playing second fiddle to local events.I think you are wrong on the oil front, of course there are different grades of oil and refineries may incur a short term inconvenience as they will need to change production processes etc, but this is obviously surmountable and it is not only me saying this but oil traders throughout the world, the price of oil popped 3/4 bucks on the news yesterday and today it gave back those gains. If Russia couldn't re-route this oil to other countries and it was basically lost to the world then this would not have happened and you could be sure oil would be trading north of 150 dollars a barrel.
One of the things the sanctions are affecting is Russian refineries which are only operating at 70%, and this is mainly due to them not being able to access necessary parts for maintenance projects etc. I'm not sure how long this will last firstly this the whole world is suffering from a dearth of everything from micro chips to finished goods and this is mainly due to the hangover from covid and China's lockdown. Secondly assuming the first issue resolves itself what is to stop a Brazilian company importing shit from the US and then exporting the same goods to Russia and thereby rendering many of the sanctions ineffective, unless there is world wide co-operation Russia will not become the economic dessert that befell Venezuela, Iran etc. This is not happening now due to world wide shortages so it is possible the sanctions will not be as effective as we think or hope based on what is happening in the here and now.
Currently Russia is earning record revenue from oil and gas due to high prices, therefore, I'm sure, whether underhandedly or not, they will be able to obtain necessary goods from countries like China who they have a huge border with and others who haven't imposed sanctions, the result of which means they will be able able to go on for years with this war.
Have people forgotten the US was in Afghanistan for the guts of twenty years Russia was in same for 10 years, this is the reality there is no guarantee of a quick solution here, suppose Russia takes the Donbass and ok maybe Ukraine counter attacks with better weaponry but it is easier to defend a position than take one, so I see this potentially going on for years. I think it only ends when there is an end put to Putin.
Donbas is a flat terrain hence the fact they Are all digging in and whoever has the better artillery wins.