Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine

I think you are wrong on the oil front, of course there are different grades of oil and refineries may incur a short term inconvenience as they will need to change production processes etc, but this is obviously surmountable and it is not only me saying this but oil traders throughout the world, the price of oil popped 3/4 bucks on the news yesterday and today it gave back those gains. If Russia couldn't re-route this oil to other countries and it was basically lost to the world then this would not have happened and you could be sure oil would be trading north of 150 dollars a barrel.

One of the things the sanctions are affecting is Russian refineries which are only operating at 70%, and this is mainly due to them not being able to access necessary parts for maintenance projects etc. I'm not sure how long this will last firstly this the whole world is suffering from a dearth of everything from micro chips to finished goods and this is mainly due to the hangover from covid and China's lockdown. Secondly assuming the first issue resolves itself what is to stop a Brazilian company importing shit from the US and then exporting the same goods to Russia and thereby rendering many of the sanctions ineffective, unless there is world wide co-operation Russia will not become the economic dessert that befell Venezuela, Iran etc. This is not happening now due to world wide shortages so it is possible the sanctions will not be as effective as we think or hope based on what is happening in the here and now.

Currently Russia is earning record revenue from oil and gas due to high prices, therefore, I'm sure, whether underhandedly or not, they will be able to obtain necessary goods from countries like China who they have a huge border with and others who haven't imposed sanctions, the result of which means they will be able able to go on for years with this war.

Have people forgotten the US was in Afghanistan for the guts of twenty years Russia was in same for 10 years, this is the reality there is no guarantee of a quick solution here, suppose Russia takes the Donbass and ok maybe Ukraine counter attacks with better weaponry but it is easier to defend a position than take one, so I see this potentially going on for years. I think it only ends when there is an end put to Putin.
The difference in Afghanistan, the advantage was going to be on the side of those local warlords who were well armed and more importantly knew the rugged terrain inside out, had an intelligence network from the local goat herder to the village elders. Also many were already battle hardened from Soviet days and ensuing tribal battles. They were able to bring the fight on their terms and always the US led forces were playing second fiddle to local events.

Donbas is a flat terrain hence the fact they Are all digging in and whoever has the better artillery wins.
 
The difference in Afghanistan, the advantage was going to be on the side of those local warlords who were well armed and more importantly knew the rugged terrain inside out, had an intelligence network from the local goat herder to the village elders. Also many were already battle hardened from Soviet days and ensuing tribal battles. They were able to bring the fight on their terms and always the US led forces were playing second fiddle to local events.

Donbas is a flat terrain hence the fact they Are all digging in and whoever has the better artillery wins.
But can Ukraine drive the Russians out of the both Luhansk and Donetsk?

I think we are beyond the stage where in any truce they can accept anything else but total Russian withdrawal, and the Russians won't give up those areas willingly, therefore Ukraine has to drive them out, do you think they can do that given the Russians in this scenario would be taking on the defensive position, they fought those regions when they had superior man power and didn't put much of a dent in them therefore with a sizeable chunk of the Russian army there now, I'd be very doubtful, hence I could see this thing dragging on for years, unless there is some political change in Russia.
 
But can Ukraine drive the Russians out of the both Luhansk and Donetsk?

I think we are beyond the stage where in any truce they can accept anything else but total Russian withdrawal, and the Russians won't give up those areas willingly, therefore Ukraine has to drive them out, do you think they can do that given the Russians in this scenario would be taking on the defensive position, they fought those regions when they had superior man power and didn't put much of a dent in them therefore with a sizeable chunk of the Russian army there now, I'd be very doubtful, hence I could see this thing dragging on for years, unless there is some political change in Russia.
I think it all depends on the unity of the Western Alliance and despite the announcement of today I have my doubts if it will be unified going forward.

Issue for Ukrainians is that they are running low on Soviet era artillery and without a significant dispatch and training of modern artillery they will be in big trouble. Then again if they get it the Russians are in big trouble as what the Americans have even in shorter range systems being mentioned today trumps anything the Russians have.

If this plays out for months I really wonder how can the Russians rearm with advanced systems. There is a reason they narrowed their focus as they simply cannot fight on multiple fronts, and going back to Stone Age military tactics fits the status of the armory at their disposal.

Time will but have my doubts about the stomach of French and German politicians to see this out. If they don’t see this out we will be back in a decade repeating the same mistakes.
 
promised random stuff from today:

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Gary Kasparov again (you can love him or hate him, but he is far from being stupid):


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shit source for the news, but this one is confirmed already and has a nice photo attached ;)


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and the Brits too:


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Americans cannot be worse than Lithuanians ;)


more in linked article

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An article from WSJ on companies already planning how to avoid sanctions on Russian oil:

 
An article from NYT on current chief of Russian offensive in Ukraine who is missing last two weeks. The gossip says he was suspended.
Tell me if it opens for you, if not I can copy the full text if anyone interested:


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Something for the ones who like sharpshooting:


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a regular day on the front:


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The Guardian on mass graves in Mariupol. They estimate 50,000 dead...


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Here is another example how sanctions do not work:

it says: Waste haulers will have to replace nearly 4,000 foreign garbage trucks. Over five years, this will require ₽ 36.1 billion, estimated in the REO. The supply of such machines and spare parts for them ceased due to sanctions and the departure of a number of companies


full article (Russian):


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How South Korea can help with weapons for Ukraine in the "mediation" of Canada

EXPRESS
ukr.defense.news@gmail.com
June 1, 2022, 7:31 p.m

4d66296538dc738f.jpg


of the South Korean Army, illustrative photo from open sources

Following the transfer of 155-mm shells to Ukraine, Canada is asking South Korea to supply even more ammunition. How this can affect our country in the long run - in the publication of Defense Express​

Seoul said on May 30 that Canada turned to South Korea with a request to provide her with artillery shells, obviously to "replenish" the ammunition that Ottawa sent to Ukraine . This increases the pressure on South Korea to provide (at least indirectly) assistance to Ukraine in the war.
Canada has already handed over to Ukraine 4 trailed 155-mm M777 howitzers. Last week, Defense Minister Anita Anand announced that Canada would send an additional 20,000. 155-mm shots from the US.

Батарея південнокорейських самохідних артилерійських установок К9 калібру 155 мм, фото ілюстративне

Battery of South Korean self-propelled artillery installations K9 caliber 155 mm, illustrative photo

A South Korean MO spokesman confirmed that Ottawa had submitted the request, but did not clarify, saying that "no formal consideration of the request is under way.".
But South Korean television company SBS, citing an unnamed high-ranking official of the South Korean Ministry of Defense, said the deal could include up to 100,000. shots from South Korea's stocks, which are likely to be sold below market value. Journalists suggest that some of these shots may come to Ukraine.

САУ К9 фінської армії, ілюстративне фото з відкритих джерел

SAU K9 of the Finnish army, illustrative photo from open sources

South Korea is a major manufacturer of 155mm ammunition, and its self-propelled howitzer K9 dominates the international market. K9 has JI from several European countries, including Finland, Norway and Estonia, but South Korea has said it has no plans to provide arms assistance to Ukraine. But South Korea has provided humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and delivered non-lethal military items, including bulletproof vests, helmets and medical first aid kits.
The administration of former President Moon Zhe Ina has rejected President Zelensky's requests for armored vehicles, as well as anti-aircraft, anti-tank and anti-ship weapons. But South Korean President Yun Sok Yol, who took office on May 10, has shown interest in working more closely with Washington. This suggests that he will be more attentive to Ukraine's requests and will go to at least some indirect assistance to Ukraine with weapons.

Південнокорейські танки Т-80У та К2, ілюстративне фото з відкритих джерел

South Korean tanks T-80U and K2, illustrative photo from open sources

South Korea does produce all the weapons nomenclature that Ukraine has previously invited to it. The South Korean defense industry releases these weapons en masse, rearmed its Armed Forces and actively supplies them for export. And this armament is modern, efficient and high-tech. In addition, the Armed Forces have many weapons from the United States and other countries previously delivered.

more in the article here (Ukrainian source):

 
A long read about the video recently posted by Ukrainians showing destruction of the Russian column. The vide o is being challenged from many sides, as it is simply, strange to see multiple craters after shelling, loads of missed rounds, column driving down the road, and then bam, bam, bam some tanks are hit directly, when Ukrainians allegedly have no precision munition left for their artillery. Well a bit longer read but some might find it interesting :)

I stitched the thread together for easier read.

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An interesting video with the shelling of a column of Russian armored vehicles. Let's take a closer look at it and figure out what is happening. Here is the first part (too long for twitter). Here we see a column from BMP and a tank that fall under inaccurate shelling of artillery.


The second part. Here we see that the column reaches the place where the destroyed equipment is already standing and then returns. Still under fire.


The column includes infantry on the infantry farm, quite a lot, people 7-9 on each. They ride on armor and do not rush even during shelling. Where are they going?Image
Apparently they were driving here to this stronghold. Then the column stopped and we see it almost entirely. 4 T-72 or T-80 tanks, as well as 2 BMPs. Another infantry fighting vehicle follows the closing. From here only tanks go further. The shelling continuesImage
Another shot. Here we see the fifth tank and just that very closing infantry fighting vehicle. This is probably part of BTGR or some kind of assault company composed of two tank platoons and one motorized infantry platoon. I suspect that this is the rest of the larger column - at the end of the video it becomes clear whyImage
The movement of the column at the crossroads slows down. Tanks begin to interfere with the infantry fighting vehicle, part of the column moves on, part remains in place. The shelling continuesImage
Then we see how one of the tanks turned into bushes and took a position. Perhaps already prepared earlier. Now, after him, another tank will take a slightly lower position. The infantry is in no hurry, the shelling continuesImage
Meanwhile, head tanks reach the place where the three destroyed cars are. Apparently 2 tanks and 1 infantry fighting vehicle. They reach the dead equipment, stay there for a while and return backImage
At the crossroads, the tank remains in its position, BPMs are trying to turn around in order to apparently also call into bushes under the guise of trees.Image
And here we already see the infantry separately. The soldiers rushed and left the infantry fighting vehicle, moving in the bushes. In addition, you can see something like defensive structures, possibly trenches for equipment. Although it may be funnels from previous artillery strikesImage
Here we see one of the head tanks unfolding on the spot to leave back. The shelling continuesImage
And here is an interesting moment at the end. We see a crowd of infantry - about two platoons of numbers, which quickly runs away along the trees into the string from where the column came. After they also fall under fireImage
So what happened? I think it was like this :

1. A large column was moving along the road. That column in the video is her rearguard. Perhaps the column was smaller, but in any case, only part of it was on the video.

2. The column came under fire from artillery, lost at least three cars.
3. The rearguard column moved without a plan in case of problems ahead, perhaps they did not yet know about the rout.

4. Having reached the place of shelling, this part of the column was lost, not knowing whether to continue moving, to gain or return. Therefore, the infantry was in no hurry.
5. Forward sent the most combat-ready cars - tanks. When they understood about the rout - they began to move back.

6. Meanwhile, the infantry tried to hide in the forest belt, but fell under fire too.

7. The team followed to retreat and everyone draped back. Without waiting for technology
In general, the video shows an anti-example of movement in the column. The main mistakes: too tight movement, poor intelligence and disgusting coordination, the wrong composition of the column (possibly forced), the lack of a clear combat mission and adequate leadership of one commander
P.S. They write that destroyed cars have been there for quite some time. Ok, then we adjust 1 and 2 points.

This is a truly separate column on the video (strange composition), which falls under fire and rather disrupts randomly

 

Good article explaining why Scholz has so far been a day late and a dollar short.

The FDP, minority party in government are stepping up the pressure on him.

The Germans are like getting a toy from Santa Claus and on Christmas morning realizing no batteries included. They are announcing stuff to keep up the PR but when you read the fine print most of the gear won’t get there until next July. They really are pathetic.
 
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