Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine

[doppellanger]

You people need to learn how to read...

Vulgarians, right?

 

[catcha]

Go on believing the one sided fairy story coming from a basement in Poland

I hear you are a racist father. Greetings from the basement in Poland

 

[Swanforthelough]

That's facts as you subjectively interpret them though.

You think you're right, of course you do. I don't think that means that you get to insist that someone who doesn't agree with you as spreading propaganda though.

We are all entitled to our opinions nice thing about living in a democracy but some would pick a fight with the Virgin Mary to prove their point is the right one. Can’t imagine getting through life with a concrete block on my shoulder day in and day out.

 

[Swanforthelough]

Bullshit.
Russia has a unofficial military presence in Transnistria.

I didn't even bother going further since you claim it's facts your after.

The FSB pedaled the narrative that they were financing a pro-Russian militia in Transnistria but like in the south eastern Part of Ukraine was a fantasy with the FSB pocketing the budget and few pro Russian militias existing.

The plan to take Odessa was critical on the Transnistria militia to move from the West and supplement Russians from East and marine beach landings but unfortunately Transnistria militias were nothing more than a bunch of pensioners from the Communist party with walkers.

Bit like taking Waterford and not Cork.Big disappointment.

 

[Drucker]

The FSB pedaled the narrative that they were financing a pro-Russian militia in Transnistria but like in the south eastern Part of Ukraine was a fantasy with the FSB pocketing the budget and few pro Russian militias existing.

The plan to take Odessa was critical on the Transnistria militia to move from the West and supplement Russians from East and marine beach landings but unfortunately Transnistria militias were nothing more than a bunch of pensioners from the Communist party with walkers.

Bit like taking Waterford and not Cork.Big disappointment.

The sinking of the Moskva made any attempted amphibious landing in the Odesa region far more difficult. The Moskva was providing anti aircraft capabilities to that whole area. Without it, the Ukrainians will find it easier to fire their anti ship missiles at Russian ships. Since the sinking of the Moskva, Russian ships have moved further away from Ukrainian controlled coastal areas.

 

[Stacky]

The sinking of the Moskva made any attempted amphibious landing in the Odesa region far more difficult. The Moskva was providing anti aircraft capabilities to that whole area. Without it, the Ukrainians will find it easier to fire their anti ship missiles at Russian ships. Since the sinking of the Moskva, Russian ships have moved further away from Ukrainian controlled coastal areas.

It was also a huge symbol of ongoing Russian failures and it burst their "2 best military power on the planet" bubble.

They are now hauling 60 year old tanks into the conflict.

 

[catcha]

From time to time some people are claiming that the Russians are rubbing their hands on the business of the millennium, one user from the board I am on took a look at the Russian profits from oil and the possible consequences of imposing sanctions on them. I am quoting to ask for a critical look.

Chart 1: Brent vs Ural price. Conclusion: the price of Russian oil did not change significantly before and after the war.

He was wondering how to reconcile it with some press screaming that the Russians earn 40% more than last year, even despite the reduction of orders from Europe after the outbreak of the war (unforced sanctions):

Russian oil sales have gone up — not down — after massive sanctions from the West

Russia is expected to rake in roughly $321 billion from energy exports in 2022, Bloomberg reported. That's up more than a third from last year.

www.businessinsider.com

So he took a look at the value of Russian oil exports and the answer is COVID. Low base effect. Last year, exports continued to suffer from lowered demand. Now for the best: this chart below, showing monthly exports in dollars, ends in January, before the war.

Russia Oil Exports

Oil Exports in Russia increased to 32794 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 30245 USD Million in the third quarter of 2021. This page provides - Russia Oil Exports- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

So if the price remained the same and the Russian exports probably decreased, what are the real profits in the February-May period? He guesses they haven't increased. What will happen now in the face of the sanctions? After all, it is clear that the Russians do not have a way to quickly change recipients.

So what if the Russian can produce oil, but it cannot be sold so easily, especially in the long term. The EU embargo on tankers forces Russia to transfer the entire fleet to the Middle East - the Northern Road will not be able to handle such traffic even in June (poorly recognized route requiring at least radar control) and the tankers loaded with unwanted oil will not break through Suez to a large extent - you have to around Africa and all of India to reach far eastern ports. And here is the dog buried... the Far East ports will not be able to bear such a volume of exports for infrastructure reasons, to at least compensate for exports to other markets. And carrying oil from the Baltic ports to China is financial suicide. Unofficial announcements are made that due to logistical constraints, 30% of the shafts will have to be closed - and this was often explained during the oil crisis. To reopen them, you need time, money and technology. And as we can see, Rus doesn't have any of those listed. The hydrocarbon crisis will not be felt by the plows until a year from now

There are no pipelines and access to tankers is limited. Sure, the price in the EU will go up further, but it doesn't look like the Russians can save themselves. It will hurt us, but they will die.

Bloomberg found the production data leaked by the Russians: by May Rosneft + Bashneft 15% production down. Since the price is the same, 15% of profits in this period are down. No sanctions.

Putin’s State Oil Champion Suffers Biggest Production Drop - Bloomberg​

Later I will drop some standard "random stuff"
Thank you for all the support!

 

[catcha]

LOL, but first have a look on Ukrainian Pravda. The newspaper providing some vital info but obviously as it is state Ukrainian paper there are tones of propaganda.
Still igf anyone interested can drop it into google.translate or DeepL to read what they publish on war.

Ukrainian Truth from yesterday evening - the time stamps are for when the article was published. Only Headings are translated.

06:00 Zelenski: 60-100 Ukrainian soldiers are killed every day
05:37 Kherson region: Russians blew up bridges over Ingulec - OK "South"
05 : 00 Zelenskiy: Ukraine asks for long-range weapons for self-defense, not to attack Russian territory
04:15 WSJ: OPEC considers excluding Russia from oil deal
03:25 ISW: Russia has focused on Donbas and exposed itself to vulnerability in the critical region of Kherson
02:40 Wilkuł: Russians mine the Ingulca coast and strengthen the defense
02:15The Russian attack on Ukraine killed over 4,000 civilians - according to the UN
01:30 NYT: There is no consensus in the White House as to whether Russian assets can be confiscated
00:30 Direction Izium: the military shot down the Russian "Alligator" helicopter

31 MAY 2022
23:45 The Ombudsman for Children launches a hotline for Ukrainians
23:35 Takeover of Tatnafta's assets, Gazprom's self-embargo: today's economic results
23:23 US ambassador to the United Nations: The White House made it clear that he would only provide Ukraine with defensive weapons
22:56 The president announced the success of the Armed Forces in Kherson and Kharkiv
oblasts 22:54 EU will prohibit insurance of ships carrying Russian oil - WSJ
22:51 Zelenski addressed those who showed how to fight: look at the entire front. Zelenskiy called on the Ukrainians to assess the situation along the entire front line, and not only in the most difficult places.
22:39 Zelenski: As soon as the 6th package of sanctions becomes operational, we will start to prepare 7.
22:27 Russia said it wants to end the "civil war" in Ukraine
22:24 Protective structures are also being removed in Zaporizhia. The City Council explained why
the Zaporozhye city authorities decided to relax some of the defensive measures in order to restore economic activity in the city.
21:58 The Netherlands did not completely lose gas supplies from Russia - media
21:51In the east, Ukrainian fighters destroyed 29 units of the occupant's equipment
21:42 Can be sent to the front line with or without training and ammunition: what you need to know about mobilization
21:39 Macron suggested that Putin approve the UN resolution to unblock the port of Odessa
21: 31 Ukrainian cellular networks will not be restored in the Kherson region in the near future
21:20 Sweden bans coal, oil and gas extraction
21:17 "Do you know that I no longer have legs?" The story of the 5-year-old Marina from the Kherson region
21:09 Lugansk region: the occupiers control most of Severodonetsk, the city is fighting
21:09 Mikhail Podoliak, an advisor to the head of the President's Chancellery, called the statement by the secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, that Poland is allegedly starting to take over western Ukraine with "classic hallucinations" of the Russian media.

Same but different right?

and the map and I am back to my BBQ - the weather is amazing!

 

[stan ogden]

The Old man steps up to the plate

Russian troops continue to fight to take complete control of the eastern industrial city of Sievierodonetsk, as the US said it will provide Ukraine with advanced rockets to help it force Moscow to negotiate an end to the war.

President Joe Biden said the United States would provide Ukraine with more advanced rocket systems and munitions so it can "more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield".

"We have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table," Mr Biden wrote in an opinion piece in the New York Times

I saw the Oped piece too. Quite rare for a sitting US president to sign his name to that. The US is not going to be providing long-range rocket launchers that can hit inside Russia. If long-range missiles hit Russia, the whole world (i.e. 6 out of 7 people across the globe who are outrightly supporting Russia, or simply looking the other way) would see this as a direct American attack on Russia ... That, however, might be the least of the world's worries. Would you trust a monkey with a hand grenade? The Americans obviously don't trust the Ukrainians. So what they are doing is a lip service solution is another tranche of ineffective munitions (more javelins, stingers, etc .... none of which will make a difference in the end and don't even replace what they are losing every day) and a HANDFUL of short-range rocket launchers ... From what I hear, they didn't even want to give them any of the short-range stuff at all .... So again, a lip service solution that satisfies the PR, the optics, takes the ever-diminishing war lobby off their backs for a week or two, shows them that they are doing something, but the totality of it won't make any difference whatsoever in the end ... So you can see the gradual drip-feed of information as the US disentangles itself from this. It's very evident now. Drip ... drip ... drip ... drip. The Americans have clearly written off Ukraine. The writing is well and truly on the wall and it's been there for a good month now.

 

[CaptainSensible]

Just for sake of keeping facts straight.

Russia did not annexed Transnistria. They do not even rule there. It is controlled by rogue mafia style group lead by Sheriff. They have links with Russians and that is all, as Russians are using this region to destabilize Moldova and Ukraine. There is not a single Russian soldier there.

Georgia, after attacking Georgia and having 2/3 of the country raided at the start of the conflict they had to flee and all gains are another two rouge enclaves.
Russians do not control Georgia, after their attack Russians lost all "love" from that nation - big time.

Abkhazia was recognized by Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru, and Syria - that should tell something right? UN is not recognizing it and it is considered as autonomous part of Georgia. The region is neglected since the war. Great gains! Ah, and they refused to send any troops to Ukraine, or rather they basically came back from Ukraine after being deployed there first. They just packed back and left.

South Ossetia is very similar, but in fairness this land is more controlled by Russians (or rather was strongly controlled but since Armenia got kicked in the balls by Azer they are less and less focused towards full independence). Russians are their "protector" but this is totally different cup of tea than Abkhazia. Ossetia was a separate oblast in USSR and has nothing to do with Georgia in fairness, despite Georgians are claiming it is theirs. On top of that, Ossetia couple of weeks ago condemned Russian actions are backed off from proclaiming full independence (they supposed to do referendum as far as I remember).

How about Russian gains in two Chechen wars? Dagestan had to be slaughtered to be controlled. What about their gains in Syria where all they could do is flat cities and towns.



First, thank you for your post!

Technically you cannot just "switch" to Russian oil. You need to have your system ready for that type of the oil. To have that you need money and technology. Both lacking by Russians. Who will do that for them? Chinese? I would say Iran will come to play big time, that is why Saudi are so nervous.



Sure it is That is why the supply lines via Baltics and Poland are actually switched off almost fully. That is why Orban is fighting for his master as much as he can. One "technical break" on Druzbha pipework on the Ukrainian territory and supply to Europe is down. This is why NS was even created first place. Russians were planning having with Germans am alternative so they could control all the flow politically. Their game fell into pieces few years back with Baltic pipe and LNG terminals on the Baltic shore. This is why there was so many Greenpeace protests for the Baltic pipe when NS was all good and more of those, like local German govs blocking the other pipe. Now all this got exposed and basically destroying German realpolitik.

Well, my point of view anyway.

I think you are wrong on the oil front, of course there are different grades of oil and refineries may incur a short term inconvenience as they will need to change production processes etc, but this is obviously surmountable and it is not only me saying this but oil traders throughout the world, the price of oil popped 3/4 bucks on the news yesterday and today it gave back those gains. If Russia couldn't re-route this oil to other countries and it was basically lost to the world then this would not have happened and you could be sure oil would be trading north of 150 dollars a barrel.

One of the things the sanctions are affecting is Russian refineries which are only operating at 70%, and this is mainly due to them not being able to access necessary parts for maintenance projects etc. I'm not sure how long this will last firstly this the whole world is suffering from a dearth of everything from micro chips to finished goods and this is mainly due to the hangover from covid and China's lockdown. Secondly assuming the first issue resolves itself what is to stop a Brazilian company importing shit from the US and then exporting the same goods to Russia and thereby rendering many of the sanctions ineffective, unless there is world wide co-operation Russia will not become the economic dessert that befell Venezuela, Iran etc. This is not happening now due to world wide shortages so it is possible the sanctions will not be as effective as we think or hope based on what is happening in the here and now.

Currently Russia is earning record revenue from oil and gas due to high prices, therefore, I'm sure, whether underhandedly or not, they will be able to obtain necessary goods from countries like China who they have a huge border with and others who haven't imposed sanctions, the result of which means they will be able able to go on for years with this war.

Have people forgotten the US was in Afghanistan for the guts of twenty years Russia was in same for 10 years, this is the reality there is no guarantee of a quick solution here, suppose Russia takes the Donbass and ok maybe Ukraine counter attacks with better weaponry but it is easier to defend a position than take one, so I see this potentially going on for years. I think it only ends when there is an end put to Putin.