the official betting thread.

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Watching a pod that went out before today's games,

22 of 40 games scoreless at half time.
21 winning favs out of 40.

Hard punting lines this WC, i'd say. The psychology of betting on things to happen as to not happen is tough to break even when you're aware of it. I backed unders in a game I was going to watch for the first time ever in this WC I think.

And we'd all be nicely up if we just blindly punted the big fav/big outsider HT/FT.

Is it 3 of those that have come in now? Japan x2 & Saudi.

 

[Donald Trump]

And we'd all be nicely up if we just blindly punted the big fav/big outsider HT/FT.

Is it 3 of those that have come in now? Japan x2 & Saudi.

Yes 3, IIRC.

What odds would they have been? 50, 66? Guessing as its not a market I bet in.

But I remember CB liked to bet them when the betting challenge was in its heyday. I remember doing a bit of research on it out of interest and it happens in less than 2% of epl games.

I can't remember but I'd say that was much more favourites coming back when it did.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Yes 3, IIRC.

What odds would they have been? 50, 66? Guessing as its not a market I bet in.

But I remember CB liked to bet them when the betting challenge was in its heyday. I remember doing a bit of research on it out of interest and it happens in less than 2% of epl games.

I can't remember but I'd say that was much more favourites coming back when it did.

Just looked it up. Saudi was 300/1 (not joking). Japan's were 70 & 80.

 

[Donald Trump]

Just looked it up. Saudi was 300/1 (not joking). Japan's were 70 & 80.

There was 100s of 1000s bet on Argentina at odds from 1.01 to 1.04 on the exchange at half time too.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

Ok, so our average is in:

2.43 France
3.31 Draw
3.5 England

Cue v

To be honest, what I think it will actually turn out to be will be quite close to 2/1 all three outcomes.

 

[Philby]

Had a look @ the Golden Glove market.

To give me a second runner in this market I'm going to back Diogo Costa (1 clean sheet so far) @ 25/1 and hope that Portugal don't give Rui Patricio a run again stSouth Korea. They're in line to play Switzerland in the last 16 and Germany in quarter finals, so not the trickiest run of games - so being rested on Friday might not be fatal for his chances.

View attachment 17209

Costa starts for Portugal!

He shortened in from 25/1 prior to last night's game to 10/1 now.

Didn't check him odds earlier today so not sure how much of it is attributable to each of these 3 factors
- Costa not being rested against South Korea
- Neuer & Courtois existing the competition
- Money coming for Costa (...who looked an outlier @ 25/1 given Portugal's potential path to the final)

 

[Donald Trump]

Fun bet.

Hannibal Lecter to score and get booked at 8.25 with 365

 

[Donald Trump]

Hannibal is 2/1 with Paddy to score OR be booked.

 

[Donald Trump]

Sky bet are offering evens England to win in 90 minutes Sunday night.

Boylesport are offering 3/1 Senegal double chance.

Of course stake restrictions apply, but it's potentially 20 quid risk free.

 

[Donald Trump]

Think it's from 2006 I heard on a pod you'd have a 29% ROI if you just backed the draw blindly in the knockout games.

So I'm going to do that for 5 yoyos per match, and see how it goes.

Netherlands USA €5 @ 3.38 with 365
Arg Australia €5 @ 6.6 Exchange