the official betting thread.

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Dan Burn looks a bit of value at 14.5 considering Lindelof is starting today

Bruno at 4/1 with Fred is decent too. No not that Brazilian FlousY.

 

[Philby]

Limping in with a few coppers on Salah AGS + carded at 200/1 (80th minute)

 

[Philby]

Limping in with a few coppers on Salah AGS + carded at 200/1 (80th minute)

Ah shag. Endo on for Mo

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Betfair Sports paying 12 places on the masters and best price on those paying 12 on a number of them.

So far on Henley @ 34, and Rose @ 67.0. I'll probably waste more money on Shane too as I know the first week I don't back him he's going to win and I'm a spiteful cunt!

Squeaky bum time..

Can Rory do a bumnal?

Aw g'wan.

 

[TheOutdoorThreadmill]

Tidy, 12 years to break even

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Listening to one of the pods earlier and Mark o Haire said Deccy sasanach bastards 2 goals were 0.04 and 0.06 chances of scoring.

He also said the odds of scoring both those free kicks was 435/1. Do any of ye think he used the xG to work out those odds and if so, how?

 

[Philby]

Listening to one of the pods earlier and Mark o Haire said Deccy sasanach bastards 2 goals were 0.04 and 0.0625 chances of scoring.

He also said the odds of scoring both those free kicks was 435/1. Do any of ye think he used the xG to work out those odds and if so, how?

Here's how I'd do it.

The odds of scoring the 0.04 xG chance is 1/0.04 -> so a 1 in 25 chance
Likewise the 0.0625 xG changes is a 1 in 16 chance

Multiple them both and you get a 1 in 400 chance.

In the right ballpark. Not quite sure where he's getting 435/1 and not 400/1 though

 

[Philby]

I smell goals tonight. Here's what I'm backing



and why...

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Tielemans Score AND assist bb with sky @ 38.0.

Backing the singles too (currently trying to get prices on the exchange)

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

I smell goals tonight. Here's what I'm backing

View attachment 41331

and why...

View attachment 41329

Backed Rogers AGS @ 4.5 on the exchange.

First at 11/1 too.