The next Government

[Rebel CNC]

I don't understand this logic. Numbers wise, it is practically impossible for SF to be in government without one of FG or FF, neither of which will touch them with a 40 ft pole. Every poll points to FG FF and Indies, (rural Indie group in particular). It simply isn't there for SF in electoral maths. And honestly, I think they are happy to bank the 34% and head for the opposition benches.

Tbf, I think likes of McDonald and Doherty are dead keen to form a government but your core point is correct. They probably need to push on a few more percentage points. They seem to be stuck in 30-35 region for a while now.

If FF have a good election (looking unlikely) there will be pressure on them to break any potential impasse by having discussions with SF and they'd be in a strong position in terms of demanding cabinet posts and priorities in government despite being junior partner in terms of numbers.. SF would need FF more than FF would need SF.
There are plenty in FF (two Mickeys for instance) who'd be very reluctant to enter government with SF and would be quite happy to see any talks break down and retreat into opposition for a spell.

 

[SoundMan]

We deserve what we get,

Do we really though? In this country the overwhelming majority of public reps are part of some party machine that kicks into action come election-time. Very difficult for someone from outwith the party machine to become an elected public rep I think, and generally they're better reps imho. The "party whip" doesn't give us proper representation imho.

 

[PROCNA2018]

Tbf, I think likes of McDonald and Doherty are dead keen to form a government but your core point is correct. They probably need to push on a few more percentage points. They seem to be stuck in 30-35 region for a while now.

If FF have a good election (looking unlikely) there will be pressure on them to break any potential impasse by having discussions with SF and they'd be in a strong position in terms of demanding cabinet posts and priorities in government despite being junior partner in terms of numbers.. SF would need FF more than FF would need SF.
There are plenty in FF (two Mickeys for instance) who'd be very reluctant to enter government with SF and would be quite happy to see any talks break down and retreat into opposition for a spell.

I disagree. As of RedC FF predicted to return 23 seats. Assume SF return 64. That's 87.
(Clearly I am talking about current TD numbers not expanded Dáil).
In that scenario - my contention is FF will say no and SF won't mind it because they will bank the seats.
There is no way MM or MMcG go in with them. Not a snowballs. And there isn't the appetite or the numbers for anyone to heave against MM - or it would have happened already - to provide a leader more inclined to contemplate it.

FG giveaway budget - kicks in in early 24, election April/May which might mean the locals are kicked out.
FG FF get early 60's between them, indies come in at about 20 or so - rural independents get shopping lists fulfilled - away they go.

 

[SoundMan]

I would put good money on Jerry blowing the safest of safe seats,

 

[SoundMan]

I don't understand this logic. Numbers wise, it is practically impossible for SF to be in government without one of FG or FF, neither of which will touch them with a 40 ft pole. Every poll points to FG FF and Indies, (rural Indie group in particular). It simply isn't there for SF in electoral maths. And honestly, I think they are happy to bank the 34% and head for the opposition benches.

Prior to the last General Election I doubt anybody could have foreseen FF in coalition with FG - and yet it came to pass.

 

[SoundMan]

Pearse Doherty was on radio recently and said SF will only go into govt with parties who are 100% in agreement with SF policies,
That is the get out if they were to walk away from any potential talks,

Politician saying they're not going to move on policies prior to election and seeing what way the seat distribution eventually works out SHOCKAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[PROCNA2018]

Prior to the last General Election I doubt anybody could have foreseen FF in coalition with FG - and yet it came to pass.

It was glaringly obvious - from the man who brought you constructive opposition, to confidence and supply.........it was clear how it was going to play out.

 

[TheOutdoorThreadmill]

Pearse Doherty was on radio recently and said SF will only go into govt with parties who are 100% in agreement with SF policies,
That is the get out if they were to walk away from any potential talks,

Getting the excuses in early, fair play to him. Their excuse in 2016 was that they wouldn't be the minority party in government. They can huff and puff all they want, they don't want to be in government

 

[TheOutdoorThreadmill]

Prior to the last General Election I doubt anybody could have foreseen FF in coalition with FG - and yet it came to pass.

They had a supply and confidence agreement already, their policies are almost identical.

 

[SoundMan]

It was glaringly obvious - from the man who brought you constructive opposition, to confidence and supply.........it was clear how it was going to play out.

No it wasn't. And it's disingenuous to now pretend that it was obvious that FF would actually go into coalition with FG when MM said on the campaign trail that people clearly wanted change (from the previous FG government supported in C+S by FF).

Talk about trying to rewrite history

YOu don't want to see SF in government in any shape or form - that's fine. But spare us the absolute revisionism.