Sinn Fein are not a Normal Political Party

[Drucker]

Here's a tip, when pretending to know what and when it is SF are calling for, actually listen to what and when it is SF are calling for.

MLMD as recently as this weekend said that they weren't calling for an immediate BP. And your insistence that they are shows you up for what you are.

Your "majority of people in both parts of the island choose not to vote for SF" is an interesting take. As it happens they're the biggest party in both parliaments but that aside, it's not just SF who want a Border Poll, or at least who say they want a Border Poll. Unless of course they want to contravene the GFA and aspire to having a United Ireland without aspiring to having a Border Poll on the issue first. You and your pals can shout "Never, never, never" to a Border Poll all you like but don't then try to pretend that at the same time you aspire to being in or having a United Ireland.

The simple fact of the matter is NOBODY can have a United Ireland without FIRST having a Border Poll. To claim you aspire to a United Ireland but to want to defer a Border Poll for as long as possible, some here want another 50 years, is akin to saying you aspire to Cork City FC winning the FA Cup but don't ever want CCFC to play in the UK. One has to happen before the other can.

A Border Poll MUST take place BEFORE a United Ireland can be achieved, unless you want to renege on an internationally ratified inter-governmental agreement that was voted for in overwhelming numbers by people from all over this island.

Where did I say that SF want an immediate border poll?

Respect the Irish vote.

 

[Drucker]

Apparently, me saying that:

“I guess that most people are now fully aware that SF would like to have a border poll as soon as possible, and would like to set out a timetable for when it should happen so that people can prepare for one.”

Is actually me saying “SF want an immediate border poll.”

There’s actually no point in carrying on a debate with someone who repeatedly misinterprets what I’ve said.

Oh well….

 

[Stacky]

Demographics especially after the next census comes out will prove it.
There is no nationalist majority at the moment and it would fail about 60/40.
At the weekend there was 40% nationalist, 40% unionist and 20% down the middle.
The nationalist vote in terms of seats is holding.
The unionist vote in terms of seats and percentage of vote is declining.
I think you may have posted a graphic indicating that yourself.
Brandon Lewis seemed to indicate at the weekend that an assembly election that had more nationalists seats than unionists might, might be a criterion. Based on this election that is not far off at all.

Where I think my point fails is if unionism changes tack.

If unionism implements the GFA, SAA and NDNA in full, including the protocol, it would completely pull the rug from under that direction of travel and move it towards the THK timeframe instead, by making NI work on an equal basis for all. What about what the DUP are doing makes it look to you that they are respecting equality or democracy?.

We seem to think that the constitutional issue was resolved by the GFA in that it said NI was British.
It was resolved by the GFA in that it said NI was British unless a majority by referendum say otherwise.
Do you really think nationalism will not want to exercise that option in the GFA for unity, for a return to fill EU citizenship and benefits etc etc when the opportunity arises?

At the start of Indyref1 independence was at 27%, by your logic there shouldn't have been a referendum.
By the end it was 52% without the covenant which was immediately reneged on afterwards which meant indy was left at 45%. When the question is asked and the vote is meaningful - do you think nationalists will vote no? Not in a LucidTalk poll? in an actual referendum?

It is fanciful and wishful thinking to believe because we are happy with the current constitutional arrangements, there is no violence, it isn't registering in the top 6 or 7 issues in a southern election largely because we down here have been independent for over a century, that those who compromised in the GFA to accept the status quo and wait for a border poll will not ask for one just because we would prefer they didn't. And to be very clear, as I have posted over and over again, the they I am referring to is not SF. It is the people of the North, all 1.8 million of them.

Demographics will take decades to get to your favourable position to win a border poll vote.

There is no evidence otherwise to validate your claim.

Not all Catholics will vote for a United Ireland and not all Protestants will vote to remain in the U.K. but a lot more of them will do so than the other option.

There is no rush or demand for a border poll from the Nationalist politicians.

Why?

Because they all know that it will not pass for at least a generation or 2 and people are very happy with the status quo of peace and prosperity with both parts of the island effectively in the E.U.

It is not like East Germany that was deprived and oppressed under Communism and that is not the case in the 6 counties.

There is simply no rush or no mass demand.

 

[PROCNA2018]

Demographics will take decades to get to your favourable position to win a border poll vote.

There is no evidence otherwise to validate your claim.

Not all Catholics will vote for a United Ireland and not all Protestants will vote to remain in the U.K. but a lot more of them will do so than the other option.

There is no rush or demand for a border poll from the Nationalist politicians.

Why?

Because they all know that it will not pass for at least a generation or 2 and people are very happy with the status quo of peace and prosperity with both parts of the island effectively in the E.U.

It is not like East Germany that was deprived and oppressed under Communism and that is not the case in the 6 counties.

There is simply no rush or no mass demand.

I think you are misreading the reality on the ground.
I think it is inevitable within 10 years, 15 at the outside.

If in the unlikely event you and I are still posting here in 10 years time (God knows we might be lol) if I am wrong I will happily admit it.

 

[Stacky]

I think you are misreading the reality on the ground.
I think it is inevitable within 10 years, 15 at the outside.

If in the unlikely event you and I are still posting here in 10 years time (God knows we might be lol) if I am wrong I will happily admit it.

A poll yes, quite possibly but a border poll uniting the island in 10 - 15 years is highly unlikely.

In reality it is probably about 25+ years away from succeeding and by then U.K. itself will probably be gone first.

Anyway it is not a live or important issue to the Irish electorate.

 

[PROCNA2018]

A poll yes, quite possibly but a border poll uniting the island in 10 - 15 years is highly unlikely.

In reality it is probably about 25+ years away from succeeding and by then U.K. itself will probably be gone first.

Anyway it is not a live or important issue to the Irish electorate.

To the electorate down here - agree totally.
To the electorate up there - every election is about it - even if it is by proxy, like with the protocol this time.
That was the electorate I think you are misreading.

Anyhow, at least we can be civil about it.

 

[Stacky]

To the electorate down here - agree totally.
To the electorate up there - every election is about it - even if it is by proxy, like with the protocol this time.
That was the electorate I think you are misreading.

Anyhow, at least we can be civil about it.

Sinn Fein did not even refer to it in the election.

The D.U.P. only used it as a scare tactic.

Any "United Ireland" has only come a tiny bit closer but it is a very very long journey.

 

[doppellanger]

Demographics will take decades to get to your favourable position to win a border poll vote.

There is no evidence otherwise to validate your claim.

Not all Catholics will vote for a United Ireland and not all Protestants will vote to remain in the U.K. but a lot more of them will do so than the other option.

There is no rush or demand for a border poll from the Nationalist politicians.

Why?

Because they all know that it will not pass for at least a generation or 2 and people are very happy with the status quo of peace and prosperity with both parts of the island effectively in the E.U.

It is not like East Germany that was deprived and oppressed under Communism and that is not the case in the 6 counties.

There is simply no rush or no mass demand.

Indeed, when people say 'demographics', they mean extrapolating current trends into the future and this is basically crystal ball gazing.

What I've taken from this election is that nationalism stood still, unionism shrank and the middle grew.

If these trends continue, nationalism may have already peaked.

Younger voters, which is what people mean when they say 'demographics' are more concerned with practical issues and less with flags and drums. They may move en masse to the middle while dinosaur parties like Sinn Fèin fade into irrelevance and obscurity.

 

[Stacky]

Indeed, when people say 'demographics', they mean extrapolating current trends into the future and this is basically crystal ball gazing.

What I've taken from this election is that nationalism stood still, unionism shrank and the middle grew.

If these trends continue, nationalism may have already peaked.

Younger voters, which is what people mean when they say 'demographics' are more concerned with practical issues and less with flags and drums. They may move en masse to the middle while dinosaur parties like Sinn Fèin fade into irrelevance and obscurity.

What the big 2 tribal parties have missed is that things have changed to a huge degree as we now have instead of 2 powerful blocs we will now have 3 blocs with the centre ground more focussed on real issues instead of old mens fantasies about a United Kingdom or United Ireland.

If the centre ground thrives (I think that it will) and prospers then the D.U.P. and S.F. will indeed have already peaked and a "Northern Irish" identity will be more important to young people.

 

[TheOutdoorThreadmill]

Indeed, when people say 'demographics', they mean extrapolating current trends into the future and this is basically crystal ball gazing.

What I've taken from this election is that nationalism stood still, unionism shrank and the middle grew.

If these trends continue, nationalism may have already peaked.

Younger voters, which is what people mean when they say 'demographics' are more concerned with practical issues and less with flags and drums. They may move en masse to the middle while dinosaur parties like Sinn Fèin fade into irrelevance and obscurity.

That's about the size of it.