Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine

[an liathroid beag]

They are heading to the fact that soon they will have lost 50% of their effective tank numbers so in no way can they mount a battle like people expected after moving forces away from Kiev.

All the talk is of the Terminator Tank that Will be unleashed this week but why was the terminator not unleashed before now. Well it’s a failure and they are simply running out of tanks.

I am sure a Javelin will not know the difference between the terminator and any other Russian tank as to why not before, it will be embarassing to see their terminator being terminated by the Javelin

 

[Barry K O Bama]

I am sure a Javelin will not know the difference between the terminator and any other Russian tank as to why not before, it will be embarassing to see their terminator being terminated by the Javelin

Vlad has also got to worry about the Ukrainian Farmers with Big John Deere 4WD's and tow chains

 

[The High King]

Rose coloured glasses may be nice but Russia still controls Kherson and the south and has a land bridge to the east. It's significantly more then they started with.
It looks like turning into a stalemate from here rather then a glorious victory for either side.
Lots of reports that the Russification of Kherson is in full swing.

 

[Barry K O Bama]

I saw a good commentary on Utube that offered an interesting insight into Putin's mindset pre 24th Feb.

The presenter suggested that Putin was influenced by a number of factors :-
He perceived Biden as more focused on China and as being weak, moreover in light of the poorly managed withdrawal from Afghanistan

He saw the new Government in Germany as just focused on domestic issues with little attn to foreign policy, military expenditure and NATO

He saw Macron as more focused on the Election

He didn't expect any real reaction from EU

He viewed Zelensky as very unpopular and expected a welcome from many Ukrainians

He expected his own military to perform well and Ukr military to put up little resistance.

The combination of the above, convinced him that he'd enjoy a quick success with regime change.

History is likely to judge Putin as making the most damaging miscalculation of the modern era

 

[catcha]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527328024638541826

 

[Swanforthelough]

Rose coloured glasses may be nice but Russia still controls Kherson and the south and has a land bridge to the east. It's significantly more then they started with.
It looks like turning into a stalemate from here rather then a glorious victory for either side.
Lots of reports that the Russification of Kherson is in full swing.

The next weeks months May not show a big change in the territorial map, starting to see some counter measures in Kherson but their big strategy is to protect Odessa right now.

Will be a long slow trudge from Kharkiv down.

Issue for the Ukrainians is to change their strategy from a defensive one to an offensive, that takes times money and lots of Equipment.Luckily Uncle Sam is able to provide the Know-how to them. Time is something the Ukranians have in spades and the Russians do not. Will Vlad be alive in 6 months time maybe not.

 

[Barry K O Bama]

The Franco/German approach brings to mind the old gag -

The Judge says to the lawyer 'You were arguing the exact opposite in front of me, last week.' The lawyer replies 'Last week I was sure that I was right but now I'm absolutely certain'

Our de facto EU leaders (Germany/France) got things radically wrong wrt Putin but that hasn't caused them to stop and think - maybe we should start listening to advice from others (The renowned foreign policy genius Donald Trump had explicitly warned them but they just scoffed at this idiot ex TV Host)

Hungary/Orban & Turkey's recent conduct has dented EU enlargement plans significantly but public statements downplaying Ukraine's application are hard to stomach. Scholz wishing to be fair to Balkan Applicants is a bit rich. (up there with BoJo credibility levels)

Nonetheless - There has been a dramatic u turn by almost all EU and European Countries. The myth of Russian Military Might has been exposed and coupled with astounding Ukr resilience - Putin now finds himself between a rock and a hard place.

A Dictator must project strength and weakness is potentially fatal.

2 recent events show just how weak Putin is becoming - Mikail Khodarenok is still standing after lambasting Vlad on '60 Minutes' and Vlad's tepid response to Sweden/Finland NATO Applications.
Both unthinkable 3 months ago.

Lloyd Austin has made contact with his Moscow Counterpart telling 'em to dial down the Nuclear Sabre Rattling and that's happening.

A cornered rat is obviously extremely dangerous but Vlad's days are numbered and his opponents (Ukraine & it's Allies) know that a 'peace deal' is just kicking the can down the road - It looks as if they've decided to sort this out now, once and for all.

 

[Swanforthelough]

The Franco/German approach brings to mind the old gag -

The Judge says to the lawyer 'You were arguing the exact opposite in front of me, last week.' The lawyer replies 'Last week I was sure that I was right but now I'm absolutely certain'

Our de facto EU leaders (Germany/France) got things radically wrong wrt Putin but that hasn't caused them to stop and think - maybe we should start listening to advice from others (The renowned foreign policy genius Donald Trump had explicitly warned them but they just scoffed at this idiot ex TV Host)

Hungary/Orban & Turkey's recent conduct has dented EU enlargement plans significantly but public statements downplaying Ukraine's application are hard to stomach. Scholz wishing to be fair to Balkan Applicants is a bit rich. (up there with BoJo credibility levels)

Nonetheless - There has been a dramatic u turn by almost all EU and European Countries. The myth of Russian Military Might has been exposed and coupled with astounding Ukr resilience - Putin now finds himself between a rock and a hard place.

A Dictator must project strength and weakness is potentially fatal.

2 recent events show just how weak Putin is becoming - Mikail Khodarenok is still standing after lambasting Vlad on '60 Minutes' and Vlad's tepid response to Sweden/Finland NATO Applications.
Both unthinkable 3 months ago.

Lloyd Austin has made contact with his Moscow Counterpart telling 'em to dial down the Nuclear Sabre Rattling and that's happening.

A cornered rat is obviously extremely dangerous but Vlad's days are numbered and his opponents (Ukraine & it's Allies) know that a 'peace deal' is just kicking the can down the road - It looks as if they've decided to sort this out now, once and for all.

Poland was warning Europe for years but we did nothing, their extensive gas networks showed us they did not sit on their hands while the rest of Europe did. The Poles were arming the Ukrainians long before any of this kicked off, EU was more interested in Poland and their LGBT issues, yes a time and a place for that but when faced with WW3 we need to gt priorities right.

Sarkozy and the French constantly pushed Turkey away from Europe, given their geographical position and influence over the Balkans was senseless. This just pushed Turkey into Arab scheme of influence and later into Russian hands. It is an easy sell then for Erdogan to his electorate that Europe doesn't want Turkey and they must find investment and a future away from Europe. Plays to his Islamic credentials giving him the green light to dismantle the secular Turkish state and go all Islamic, something that is abhorent to most Western thinking secular Turks

 

[Barry K O Bama]

Poland was warning Europe for years but we did nothing, their extensive gas networks showed us they did not sit on their hands while the rest of Europe did. The Poles were arming the Ukrainians long before any of this kicked off, EU was more interested in Poland and their LGBT issues, yes a time and a place for that but when faced with WW3 we need to gt priorities right.

Sarkozy and the French constantly pushed Turkey away from Europe, given their geographical position and influence over the Balkans was senseless. This just pushed Turkey into Arab scheme of influence and later into Russian hands. It is an easy sell then for Erdogan to his electorate that Europe doesn't want Turkey and they must find investment and a future away from Europe. Plays to his Islamic credentials giving him the green light to dismantle the secular Turkish state and go all Islamic, something that is abhorent to most Western thinking secular Turks

The perverse irony of the current situation is that Trump was correct when he called out Merkel over her refusal to comply with NATO Commitments on military spending and her idiotic 'Ostpolitik' Doctrine.

Ukraine is paying an appalling price for Franco/German Ignorance, Arrogance, Temerity & Greed.

Brings to mind the immortal Laurel & Hardy catchphrase 'Well, here's another nice mess you've got me into'

 

[beanee]

Russia is in this for the medium-long term and are making continuous small territorial gains in the east as they attack with smaller units. Just because they've been humiliated in Kyiv and the initial plan has failed embarrassingly doesn't mean they can't slowly, but surely carve out increasingly bigger slices of Ukraine. Putin doesn't have to worry about his political opposition making gains on the back of defeats, he just poisons them so in the west we don't seem to fully understand that a dictator like him can stick around for years waiting for the right moment to avenge his humiliation.

It's unlikely the Ukrainians will be able to take back the south anytime soon. This time next year I sincerely doubt the Donbas and southern corridors to Russia will be back in Ukrainian hands. It's most likely going to result in a stalemate.