Jesus lads, 'tis looking like BREXIT!

[Handy Run]

Meanwhile, the junior doctors in the NHS have agreed to a pay increase of 22.3% over two years.

That was very quick tbf

 

[keamoresouth]

That was all to isolate others through wars and alliances when it suited them for projecting their own power and empire.

Now they have just isolated themselves as "Billy no mates"

They do not even have money now to do anything as the Tories wrecked the place.

To an extent isolationism in the 19th century was all about that yes, but also a consequence of the money spent fighting Napoleon. Other empires projected themselves by entering into short term alliances, Britain didn't in Western Europe (Crimea in the 1850s and the Balkans in the 1870s are interesting case studies of how they viewed "Europe"). Yes they're now "Billy No Mates" because of the dastardly furrener looking to straighten bananas or whatever nonsense Boris Johnson had published in the Daily [insert name here].

Tory austerity allied to Tory nationalism has destroyed the UK, and if I were Scottish or Welsh I would be wondering loudly why such a union is feasible in the long term. But there are a plethora of examples of how well those two polities have succeeded (or otherwise) in running their own affairs recently.

 

[How bad boy]

Europe is very strong in E.V.'s design and production as Tesla is just toxic for lots of reasons.

The E.U. economy is only 4% smaller than the U.S.'s.

E.U. is huge on the semi-conductor industry despite of China.

The real risk of China invading Taiwan would have massive impacts for industries everywhere.

The U.S. has an antiquated wireless market and Erikson and Nokia are still big global players.

Green tech is massive in Europe.

High speed public transport from Siemens while the U.S. sticks with gas guzzlers and China invests huge sums in delivering infrastructure.

AI has over promised so far so the U.S. tech companies have gone all in on huge investment but no revenue produced as the human brain is smarter and cheaper-if only their shareholders were smarter?

Airbus does not have the huge problems of Boeing for example.

Tech is a disaster zone though.

The EU is not huge in semiconductors. ASML aside, it's a minnow. Ireland has one of the largest production capacities in Europe. Taiwan has over two thirds of the global market share, so you're right about how massive a disaster China invading would be.

Germany has got large plans, with 5 significant fabs under planning or construction, but none of them are owned by European companies (although Bosch and NXP are partners to TSMC in the Dresden automotive fab planned to open by end 2027...)

The EU economy might only be 4% smaller than the US, its population is almost 50% higher.

No one will be coming after your "wealth" though.

If you come after someone's home here then you are labelled as "Worse than the Brits" so it is a political hand-grenade that no one wants to touch.

Banks can hardly get homes off mortgage defaulters nevermind the Govt going after "wealth" so we all pay higher mortgages as a result.

Nothing will be done. (There might be a little old lady living in that huge draughty mansion) and doing things for the common good never comes into it.

Politicians will not touch it as they recently simply fudged the derelict property tax to make it so weak to be totally pointless.

Long term planning and the societal good is never considered and we all pay the price.

I could not care less if we upset a few multi-millionaire's by upping tax etc. but there are so many ways that will be found to circumvent it.

I'm a homeowner, I'm alright jack.

In fact, in Ireland, institutional home ownership isn't a major problem right now.

There's a much, much bigger problem in built up urban areas with apartments (little old, would welcome more recent data):

‘No change’ in scale of institutional housing investment following new tax

Institutional investors bought 4,744 housing units in 2021, research carried out for Minister for Finance shows

www.irishtimes.com

"Institutional purchases in 2021 included 2,024 houses — 4.4 per cent of the total — as well as 2,750 apartments — 24 per cent of all apartments that changed hands."


Here's how it creates a problem:
Institution owns your apartment
You pay them €Xk a month
They add borrowing on top and buy more apartments
Apartments go up in price, you can't afford apartment so have to scrape together wealth
Rents go up
You pay them €(X+Y)k a month. You have Y less a month to compete.

As the institutions get bigger, they're draining more and more cash out of Irish renters and giving it to people who don't live in Ireland.
And institutions don't sell up unless they absolutely have to.

It gets worse in the social renting sector as instead of the money draining out of individuals, it's drained from government coffers. Government has less money, institutions have more more money to further expand their presence in the market.



Britain is suffering from this problem too:

UK Residential Property Named “Preferred” Investment for…

The UK residential property market has officially been ranked as one of the most favoured sectors for institutional investment according to the latest…

beechholdings.co.uk

"“There has been a shift from private to institutional investment in residential over the past 10 years with housebuilders adjusting their model and partnering with institutional investors right from the planning stage. In my view, the opportunity is clear and here to stay.” Cedric Bucher, CEO of Hearthstone Investments."

Labour need to reverse that.

 

[How bad boy]

It is just not going to happen properly as the cost of doing it and the amount returned to the State is quite low.

Development land and derelict property should be CPO'd if not used as it affects us all.

That is only true in the short term.


A house built today will still be valuable to the state in 50+ years time. If properly built, it'll still be valuable in 100+ years time.

 

[Bennyton]

It is just not going to happen properly as the cost of doing it and the amount returned to the State is quite low.

Development land and derelict property should be CPO'd if not used as it affects us all.

It should be CPO'd fairly quickly yeah.

At least derelict buildings and land that falls within rent pressure zones.

 

[Stacky]

That is only true in the short term.


A house built today will still be valuable to the state in 50+ years time. If properly built, it'll still be valuable in 100+ years time.

Unfortunately there is little long-term planning (Transport and Green issues have this now) outside election to election as at election times promises are always to reduce the tax burden which is a mistake.

 

[Stacky]

Tech is a disaster zone though.

The EU is not huge in semiconductors. ASML aside, it's a minnow. Ireland has one of the largest production capacities in Europe. Taiwan has over two thirds of the global market share, so you're right about how massive a disaster China invading would be.

Germany has got large plans, with 5 significant fabs under planning or construction, but none of them are owned by European companies (although Bosch and NXP are partners to TSMC in the Dresden automotive fab planned to open by end 2027...)

The EU economy might only be 4% smaller than the US, its population is almost 50% higher.

I'm a homeowner, I'm alright jack.

In fact, in Ireland, institutional home ownership isn't a major problem right now.

There's a much, much bigger problem in built up urban areas with apartments (little old, would welcome more recent data):

‘No change’ in scale of institutional housing investment following new tax

Institutional investors bought 4,744 housing units in 2021, research carried out for Minister for Finance shows

www.irishtimes.com

"Institutional purchases in 2021 included 2,024 houses — 4.4 per cent of the total — as well as 2,750 apartments — 24 per cent of all apartments that changed hands."


Here's how it creates a problem:
Institution owns your apartment
You pay them €Xk a month
They add borrowing on top and buy more apartments
Apartments go up in price, you can't afford apartment so have to scrape together wealth
Rents go up
You pay them €(X+Y)k a month. You have Y less a month to compete.

As the institutions get bigger, they're draining more and more cash out of Irish renters and giving it to people who don't live in Ireland.
And institutions don't sell up unless they absolutely have to.

It gets worse in the social renting sector as instead of the money draining out of individuals, it's drained from government coffers. Government has less money, institutions have more more money to further expand their presence in the market.



Britain is suffering from this problem too:

UK Residential Property Named “Preferred” Investment for…

The UK residential property market has officially been ranked as one of the most favoured sectors for institutional investment according to the latest…

beechholdings.co.uk

"“There has been a shift from private to institutional investment in residential over the past 10 years with housebuilders adjusting their model and partnering with institutional investors right from the planning stage. In my view, the opportunity is clear and here to stay.” Cedric Bucher, CEO of Hearthstone Investments."

Labour need to reverse that.

The extremes of wealth and a better social welfare system is to Europe's benefit though and a much better quality of life and longevity.

Tons of massive wealth inequality in the States and the cost of healthcare is just crazy.

They eat like healthcare is free and the food is just cheap and awful.

Intel sold $3 billion worth of chips to China last year from Ireland and if the U.S. clamps down then they are focked.

The rental model here is just in a total mess right now.

 

[How bad boy]

Unfortunately there is little long-term planning (Transport and Green issues have this now) outside election to election as at election times promises are always to reduce the tax burden which is a mistake.

Agreed, but isn't it time to change that?

I didn't fully agree with Piketty's Capital in the Twenty First Century when it first came out 10 years ago (https://www.peoplesrepublicofcork.c...thomas-piketty-property-tax-is-unfair.227120/)

I thought his point of capital growing faster than the returns on labour resulting in the slow strangulation of the populace was theoretically correct but in practice it hasn't really borne out to be true. That he was at risk of raising the same concerns Marx had in 1848 on the permanent underclass and Malthus on populations, however it's even more relevant now.

Fundamentally, the challenge is that capital grows faster than labour and is taxed at a much, much lower level (e.g. over 100% marginal income tax rates in many scenarios in the UK tax system, yet taxing the tiny percentage of people who leave large inheritances is considered some sort of communism).
In a growing economy, people don't mind so much.

In a stagnant economy, it's a zero sum game and it gets much, much clearer what's happening overall.


Ireland has been growing fast, and there are somewhat decent social transfers but it's a growing problem, and it is probably the root cause underlying the broken property market. Gary Stevenson has been doing some really good explanatory content on this.



Ireland's wealth inequality problem is growing very rapidly right now:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/01/16/number-of-irish-worth-at-least-50m-more-than-doubled-last-year-says-oxfam/

"In Ireland, the number of people with individual wealth of more than $50 million (€46.6m) has surged, more than doubling from 655 to 1,435 people between 2012 and 2022.

It means that for every $100 of wealth created in the period, $34 has gone to the richest 1 per cent, with less than 50c going to the bottom 50 per cent. The figures, drawn from data from Forbes, Credit Suisse and Wealth-X, indicate that Ireland’s wealthiest 1 per cent have out-earned the bottom half by more than 70 times since 2012, when the Irish economy slowly began to emerge from the post-2008 recession."

 

[Stacky]

The Daily Telegraph blame Kier Starmer who has only been in power a few weeks of course.

 

[How bad boy]

Well, it's nice that China knows where to find me:

Online security lapses led to data of 40m UK voters being hacked, says ICO

Watchdog reprimands Electoral Commission for not being up to date with security updates before hack in August 2021

www.theguardian.com