Jesus lads, 'tis looking like BREXIT!

Well they're going to find out what the electorate think of their carry on and I don't think it'll be complimentary

View attachment 26738

The wider trend is very, very clear.

View attachment 26739

The polls have only gotten worse since that poll of polls:


Thisgs are now just so bad for the Tories that they had just might as well carry on with all the crazy stuff.........like anyone can even tell the difference.
 
He was railroaded into the Brexit refernedum. John Bull was saying that they weren't getting enough out of the EU and that they didn't have any control over 'the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. They sent him to Brussels to get better terms and what he came back with wasn't enough. In steps the grenade Farage and anyway they call a referendum. Cameron didn't want it so when the vote went against, he jumped ship. I guess he wasn't going ot be responsible for the mess and wanted no part of it.
1700177179002.png
 
In the delightful fptp system, Tories are getting into territory where a 1% drop can result in losing a shit load more seats.

Take with a huge grain of salt... But electoral calculus gives this result

LAB: 506 (+203)
CON: 63 (-302)
LDM: 37 (+26)
RFM: 0 (=)
GRN: 1 (=)
SNP: 21 (-27)
 
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In the delightful fptp system, Tories are getting into territory where a 1% drop can result in losing a shit load more seats.

Take with a huge grain of salt... But electoral calculus gives this result

LAB: 506 (+203)
CON: 63 (-302)
LDM: 37 (+26)
RFM: 0 (=)
GRN: 1 (=)
SNP: 21 (-27)
In the People Polling one, if you plug that into Electoral Calculus, without tactical voting and using the default Scotland, Wales & NI prediction, you get this, Tories left with 20 seats and basically a one party state:

1700213848762.png


The equivalent for FindOutNowUK isn't much better:
1700214000721.png

And for YouGov, it's as follows:
1700214064903.png



If you turn on tactical voting for Reform & Tories, the Tories go back above 100 seats, but the best they can possibly end up with, assume Lib/Lab/Green don't tactically vote (which they will), is 188 seats.
 
If you turn on tactical voting for Reform & Tories, the Tories go back above 100 seats, but the best they can possibly end up with, assume Lib/Lab/Green don't tactically vote (which they will), is 188 seats.

The Tories are really going to struggle to get the traditional voter base motivated. Not one of them could replace Sunak and appeal to them.

Sunak can throw up whatever facts he wants but John Bull's wallet is much lighter and he doesn't see any boats being stopped. The NHS is focked and the police force is decimated. Their rivers are literally flowing with shit.

Every thing the Tories are meant to be strong on is a disaster (economy, law and order, immigration, rural conservation).

The only tangible thing they have left to point to is pensioners property values. But even those are stalling.

So they're going to campaign on the war on wokeness which nobody really cares about bar a few loonies on both sides.

If they can get reform to do a ukip and stand aside they'll survive the thrashing. If reform go hard against them and there's no tactical voting by the right they're proper fucked.

It'll be interesting to see the sudden interest in PR from the right wing rags if this happens.
 
The Tories are really going to struggle to get the traditional voter base motivated. Not one of them could replace Sunak and appeal to them.

Sunak can throw up whatever facts he wants but John Bull's wallet is much lighter and he doesn't see any boats being stopped. The NHS is focked and the police force is decimated. Their rivers are literally flowing with shit.

Every thing the Tories are meant to be strong on is a disaster (economy, law and order, immigration, rural conservation).

The only tangible thing they have left to point to is pensioners property values. But even those are stalling.

So they're going to campaign on the war on wokeness which nobody really cares about bar a few loonies on both sides.

If they can get reform to do a ukip and stand aside they'll survive the thrashing. If reform go hard against them and there's no tactical voting by the right they're proper fucked.

It'll be interesting to see the sudden interest in PR from the right wing rags if this happens.
Pensioners are actually doing fairly well financially. Their pensions have been rising at above the rate of wage earners and they're getting an 8.5% increase in April 2024 (following 10.1% increase in 2023), despite the drop in inflation. Their savings have been boosted by higher interest rates and a large percentage of them are in homes without a mortgage.
 
Pensioners are actually doing fairly well financially. Their pensions have been rising at above the rate of wage earners and they're getting an 8.5% increase in April 2024 (following 10.1% increase in 2023), despite the drop in inflation. Their savings have been boosted by higher interest rates and a large percentage of them are in homes without a mortgage.
+ most of them voted for Brexit and could not care less about the economic and reputational damage as long as those nasty foreigners cannot come to the U.K.

The problem for the Tories is that they are dying off.
 
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