Captaindarlink
Banned
So how long have you studied Irish politics?
Political stasis
Nothing illustratesthis innate conservatism better than the extraordinary similarities between the centre-right Independence Party led by Bjarni Benediktsson and Fianna Fáil.
Until the crash, the IP had garnered more votes than any other party in every election for more than half a century. It was the only centre-right political party in Europe apart from FF to have enjoyed such a long period of dominance. It achieved this despite a reputation – familiar-sounding to Irish ears – for cosiness with business elites that sometimes crossed the line to plain cronyism.
But as long as the IP appeared to deliver prosperity, it remained the most popular party. Just as FF was returned to office in May 2007 before the crisis erupted, the IP won re-election just two weeks earlier.
But the collapse of the north Atlantic’s two bubble economies brought unprecedented political change. In the 2009 election, the party lost its decades-long top-spot position with voters and was ejected from power, the same fate FF suffered a year later.
Four years on, opinion polls show that if the IP doesn’t come out on top on Saturday, it will be second place. It is nearly certain to return to government and may well take back the prime minister’s office.
This might surprise readers given that most news from the island in recent times has pointed to a government successfully driving economic recovery. Beware the spin.
Over the past couple of years, Iceland’s first-ever left-of-centre government has been as successful as the current Irish administration in selling its story of recovery around the world. While the two countries have indeed made significant progress, if not always in the same ways, conditions on the ground are still grim, here and there.
While Iceland has managed to replace many of the jobs lost in the crash, household indebtedness is more crushing than in Ireland, rampant inflation is only now being brought under control and citizens are still strictly limited in the amount of foreign currency they can obtain.
Amateur hour
If the centre-right is about to sweep back to power, the centre-left incumbents have themselves to blame for much of their lost support. Martin Koehring, an Iceland expert at the Economist Intelligence Unit, says that infighting in the coalition parties and defections of parliamentarians have weakened its authority and given it the appearance of amateurishness.
But this has not been all good news for the IP. Distrust of the political class has led to fragmentation of the vote. New parties have proliferated and it is they, rather than the IP, who have taken support from the government parties.
Despite this, at least one in four voters is expected to back the IP on Saturday, enough to all but guarantee a return to government. If FF emulates its closest political cousin, it will be back in power by 2016.
If the old ruling party can sweep back to power in Iceland after melting their economy can FF be far behind---Come on Meehaul we need another Cork Taoiseach and yes FF never went away
If the old ruling party can sweep back to power in Iceland after melting their economy can FF be far behind---Come on Meehaul we need another Cork Taoiseach and yes FF never went away
Time for a Cork Taoiseach!
