Must.... Own....property....

[jank]

Fatty O Brien claimed at the 2023 FF Ard Fheis that 32000 new builds was a record since records began.
He 100% said that.

Find the quote.

 

[Stacky]

I never said it was right, but again, you seem to think a house should not be more than 200k.
How can that be if a builder cannot build one for anywhere near that?

The median wage in Ireland is approx €45k a year.
Most households have 2 people working, which makes €90k in household income as an average.
Then it's all about servicing that debt used to buy a property.
90*4 = €360k

360k+10% deposit is approx €390-€400k
It is simply economics that is driving this.

You mention the Celtic Tiger.
Can I ask, what was the median wage in 2008?
A lot lower than now.

Having LTV of 4.0 is actually quite conservative given our EU neighbours and others in the Western world.
In OZ, it can be as high as 8/9/10.
That is one of the reasons the average price of a house in Sydney is the guts of $1.7 million (approx €1.1 million)
Same issue in NZ
Same issue in Canada
Same issue in many parts of the US
Same issue in greater London
Same issue in Sweden
Same issue in Holland
Same issue in... you get the point

Even in today's crap Irish market, the average couple can buy something half decent in many cities (maybe exl Dublin) and certainly in most counties.
The issue really isn't about the price of a house in many parts of the country, it's the lack of supply of houses. There are just too many people on good salaries chasing too few houses.
Fix the supply issue and the rest will look after itself in time.

I agree that this Macro issue is having a big impact on the social contract and is causing intergenerational issues. Have a peep at South Korea and see why their birth rate is the worst in the world. Countries the world over have gotten rich post WWII and some generations have done well from rising asset prices, good jobs market, and globalisation. The under-40's though, have gotten the bad end of the stick and politics has yet to catch up.
But this is an insanely complicated issue and populist rants wont fix it.

Irish house prices are approximatly about 8 times higher than the average income.

They used to be approximatly about 4 times the average income.

Lower interest rates helped create this long standing crisis.

Higher interest rates can begin to address it and interest rates are due to start to fall in Q3 this year which will only add to the crisis.

 

[Mike Strutter]

London is London.
We're a tiny shit hole of a country.
No house should be more than €200k.

Not

 

[Stacky]

Housing commencements surge 67% in first quarter Goodbody’s latest housing tracker highlights big jump in activity ahead of ending levy waiver Activity in the residential construction sector continues to expand. Eoin Burke-Kennedy Wed Apr 10 2024 - 18:21 Housing starts, the strongest indicator of future supply, surged to a new post-crash high in the first quarter of 2024, according to Goodbody Stockbrokers. In its latest housing commencement tracker, the brokerage said new home starts jumped by 67 per cent to 12,297 units in the first three months of the year, taking the total over the past 12 months to almost 38,000. “This is ahead of our expectations and current Government targets,” the company said. The Government’s Housing for All strategy targets 34,600 completions this year, 36,100 in 2025 and 36,900 in 2026. “The surge in Q1 is likely to be related to the proposed ending of a temporary waiver on development contributions that was introduced by the Government for a 12 month period and is due to end on April 24th,” Goodbody said.

 

[jank]

Irish house prices are approximatly about 8 times higher than the average income.

They used to be approximatly about 4 times the average income.

Lower interest rates helped create this long standing crisis.

Higher interest rates can begin to address it and interest rates are due to start to fall in Q3 this year which will only add to the crisis.

View attachment 31530

I agree with that as well.

Cheap credit has certainly added to the norm of high house prices. But it goes even deeper than that.
You could make an argument that it was the ditching of the gold standard and Bretton-Woods that conspired to the current situation of high house prices. This happened in 1971 and we are living with that decision by Nixon.

WTF Happened In 1971?

"I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take it violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can't stop." - F.A. Hayek 1984

wtfhappenedin1971.com

It is amazing to think that a decision by the Fed and Nixon in 1971 has a knock-on effect on why a couple on a lower-than-average wage in Cork, cannot buy a home in 2024.

 

[FSG OUT]

Not

We're a tiny country.

 

[Coogee]

Government shill. Lolzers.

How is that deficit calculated? Are there 250,000 people living on the street?

No, there is not.


Why is you can buy a large house in Leitrim for a tenth the cost of it in Dublin?

I personally think it's because of the ability of (some) people to pay 10 times as much for a house in Dublin than Leitrim.

Brexit has brought an influx of those people. Finance folks in London moving to Dublin because of Brexit related employment changes wouldn't blink at paying over €1m for a normal family house.

Bring enough of those folks over and suddenly you've massively distorted the market.
Ditto with rents, if you have capital buying up and milking the rental market, how are the owners of that capital allowed to get away with it?


Someone must be paying those asking prices. How are they affording it?

Im not sure Dublin has seen a huge influx of London Fianace people though has it? I would have thought it would be more 25-40 year old tech staff from all over the world. Not saying those people wouldn't distort the housing market though.

Offices in London are pretty full again apart from Fridays and the tube is a nightmare again between 8 and 9am and 5-7pm. I work in Construction and we are seeing a huge amount of office refurb and new build office projects in the city so I'm not sure that the city crowd have fled London like was predicted when Brexit happened.

 

[FSG OUT]

Im not sure Dublin has seen a huge influx of London Fianace people though has it? I would have thought it would be more 25-40 year old tech staff from all over the world. Not saying those people wouldn't distort the housing market though.

Offices in London are pretty full again apart from Fridays and the tube is a nightmare again between 8 and 9am and 5-7pm. I work in Construction and we are seeing a huge amount of office refurb and new build office projects in the city so I'm not sure that the city crowd have fled London like was predicted when Brexit happened.

It's absolute nonsense he's spouting.
The mental gymnastics these clowns will do to blame anyone but the government for them literally destroying the housing market.
The first thing our new clown of a Taoiseach did was mention how much they need to ramp up housing supply by over 50%.
Why would he do that?
It's because we have a deficit in supply of 250,000 homes due to a lack of building for nearly a decade and certainly not building anywhere near enough in that decade.
2006-88,419 new builds.
2011-6000 new builds.
2023 Fatty O Brien was boasting about 32000 whereas everyone knows we need 50000 per year built.
Hence Harris and his 250,000 homes built between 2025 and 2030 pledge.
Absolute nonsense talk from him.
14 years and they've broken the country... he didn't even turn up today on his first day

 

[BlackpoolTerrier]

I agree with that as well.

Cheap credit has certainly added to the norm of high house prices. But it goes even deeper than that.
You could make an argument that it was the ditching of the gold standard and Bretton-Woods that conspired to the current situation of high house prices. This happened in 1971 and we are living with that decision by Nixon.

WTF Happened In 1971?

"I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take it violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can't stop." - F.A. Hayek 1984

wtfhappenedin1971.com

It is amazing to think that a decision by the Fed and Nixon in 1971 has a knock-on effect on why a couple on a lower-than-average wage in Cork, cannot buy a home in 2024.

Some fascinating graphs there jankY

 

[Bennyton]

View attachment 31511

Irelands population was 4.58m in 2011, today it's a little over 5.2m, and I don't think that accounts for refugees or old houses that have been taken off the list, etc.

Raise the capacity like, get some Turkish lads in to build a few new towns.