The next Government

[PROCNA2018]

I can't see electorally how SF on current polling form a government. If they don't form a government this time they won't get another chance.

The "change" vote is not being given to SF because people believe SF are the party of change. Their polling reflects that they are the only electoral entity that can provide a non FG FF government and the electorate have poured their polling answers into that bowl as a result.

Wanting a non FG FF government and wanting an SF government are not the same thing but on current party standings that is how it manifests itself.

It will be FG FF and Indies. The boundary redraws and the extra seats are designed to provide more seats to the parties that will transfer to each other. SF will cannibalise their potential partners' seats and MM, if he runs, will do so to ensure a coalition with SF never happens. If he is replaced as leader after the GE I don't see ant potential FF leader inclined to do a deal with SF.

 

[deeptek]

People were naive enough to vote for FF when mehole said FG wasn't the type of change people were looking for.. ...or naive enough to vote for Leo and his..not another red cent bollox..

But sure isn't that what one tends to do in an election. ..pat rabbitte.

 

[Stacky]

I can't see electorally how SF on current polling form a government. If they don't form a government this time they won't get another chance.

The "change" vote is not being given to SF because people believe SF are the party of change. Their polling reflects that they are the only electoral entity that can provide a non FG FF government and the electorate have poured their polling answers into that bowl as a result.

Wanting a non FG FF government and wanting an SF government are not the same thing but on current party standings that is how it manifests itself.

It will be FG FF and Indies. The boundary redraws and the extra seats are designed to provide more seats to the parties that will transfer to each other. SF will cannibalise their potential partners' seats and MM, if he runs, will do so to ensure a coalition with SF never happens. If he is replaced as leader after the GE I don't see ant potential FF leader inclined to do a deal with SF.

"Change" is just a slogan like "Global Britain","MAGA" or "Take Back Control"etc.

It does not actually mean anything.

S.F. have moved considerably into the centre ground this year anyway as the left-wing Socialism/Nationalism schtick will only get you so far in 2023 nevermind 2025.

I am surprised how many miss-steps and policy vagueness that they have been on Palestine as they are all over the place and out-flanked by the hard-left. Why they are even trying to keep up with PBP etc is another mystery.

Varadkar amd Martin and the wider Govt have done very well on international diplomacy and calling out Israel which is a nice change from their usual blandness and they definitly have a new energy and spring in their step since the recent popular budget.

S.F. meanwhile have looked very immature, not speaking with a single voice and the Ben Dunne tweet from Mary-Lou was just more amateur hour stuff as it only opened up another whole can of worms for them and they are on the defensive all the time. The govt. are slowly chipping away at the S.F. line of attack.

Their litigious spiteful attitude to the media will only come back to haunt S.F. anyway.

 

[TheEarlofPearl]

People were naive enough to vote for FF when mehole said FG wasn't the type of change people were looking for.. ...or naive enough to vote for Leo and his..not another red cent bollox..

But sure isn't that what one tends to do in an election. ..pat rabbitte.

It amazes me how that still gets mileage. But I guess proles and idiots can't grasp context.

 

[Minstrel]

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGee8Uf5s/

 

[SoundMan]

Are Irish voters naive enough to vote SF on the basis that by doing so they will be somehow voting for "change"?

Have SF delivered "change" in NI?

Are they naive enough to vote for FG or FF (again) on the basis that by doing so they will be somehow voting for "change"?

SF in NI Govt were one party amongst amongst five from right across the political divide - certainly not comparing like with like.

The best chance of actual change from FF/FG Government after the next GE is to vote for SF instead of FF or FG as no other party will have the critical mass to form a government without SF.

 

[Blue Jasmin]

FG are cute enough to know that people vote based on selfish motivations, that's why the budget was relatively generous and why Leo is so keen on tax cuts for middle to high earners.

I don't think the mood for change is as great as some would have you believe.

 

[jimmym]

FG are cute enough to know that people vote based on selfish motivations, that's why the budget was relatively generous and why Leo is so keen on tax cuts for middle to high earners.

I don't think the mood for change is as great as some would have you believe.

It is possible that there will be even more generous measures in next years budget, With the view to keeping the current
govt in place , if SF get into power they will be under severe pressure not to reverse any measures no matter how tight things get,
Id agree with you a sizeable amount of people are happy with how the economy is going and with their income,
Although some with kids in their late teens early 20s will keep a close eye on progress on housing,

 

[Stacky]

It is possible that there will be even more generous measures in next years budget, With the view to keeping the current
govt in place , if SF get into power they will be under severe pressure not to reverse any measures no matter how tight things get,
Id agree with you a sizeable amount of people are happy with how the economy is going and with their income,
Although some with kids in their late teens early 20s will keep a close eye on progress on housing,

That is the big problem for the opposition as the housing output ramps up and people either buy or get social homes thay are unlikely to vote for "change" anyway while S.F. will not deliver an extra house any quicker than the current Govt as there are huge sums currently allocated for housing and infrastructure as well as the construction industry currently running at full capacity.

 

[Rebel CNC]

It is possible that there will be even more generous measures in next years budget, With the view to keeping the current
govt in place , if SF get into power they will be under severe pressure not to reverse any measures no matter how tight things get,
Id agree with you a sizeable amount of people are happy with how the economy is going and with their income,
Although some with kids in their late teens early 20s will keep a close eye on progress on housing,

The Corporation tax tap appears to be slowing to a trickle which might tempt FG/FF to call early election around locals/Euros.

That is the big problem for the opposition as the housing output ramps up and people either buy or get social homes thay are unlikely to vote for "change" anyway while S.F. will not deliver an extra house any quicker than the current Govt as there are huge sums currently allocated for housing and infrastructure as well as the construction industry currently running at full capacity.

Lot of the housing coming on stream won't be delivered until late 2024 or 2025. It's the government in power at the time the keys are handed over that will claim (and get) credit for those units.
This may be why current government hold off on election until last minute even if tax receipts means any giveaway budget is going to be pretty sparse compared to last two years.