Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine

Some random stuff:

The moment a Russian kamikaze drone hit a car of Ukrainian servicemen while performing a combat task in the east.
The driver, who was hit by the FPV, miraculously survived, the other soldiers were not injured.
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I think the below would require log in to watch, apparently russians met HIMARS on the left bank of Dnipro (HIMARS is OK, allegedly 76 russians not that OK)


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Update from the gas war, maybe someone will be interested. All in all a (near) complete victory, a bore and a yawn - but out of chronicling duty....

EU storage fill level: 93.9% (1070 TWh). EU at record inventory levels for a month now, will be so for a few more days.

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Since previous report, gas prices for February 2024 have not changed significantly, the greed of the Qatari, US and other gas companies has had them holding prices steady in the region of US$50/MWh for most of 2023. Only recently, since the beginning of December - despite the cold weather - I think they have softened a bit and gas has fallen to (today) US$38.5/MWh. More expensive than before the war (18-25 USD/MWh), but a drop of some 30% since April 2023.


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I wonder where are now our energy and trade experts from the last year :) but remember! Sanctions do not work!

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Recently people were trying to figure out which "friendly country" started producing ammo for Ukraine. The mystery resolved: Azerbaijan


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Find Willy Turret Bakhmut edition:


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russians lost their supersonic bomber Su24 near the Snake Island last night:

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Putin is visiting UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The Arabs are horrible cunts - entertaining a mass murderer. Says it all about UAE & SA

We need to remember this - when the oil runs out - these fuckers should be all treated like Pariahs

Since sanctions, Dubai became a russian hub for their business. All corpos doing business with putin are saying now: "we observe sanctions, we do business with Dubayenians" ;) Sheiks are happy as they have a cut from the revenue pushed through Emirati banks.

How they celebrated arrival of the orcs is something different::

 
Since sanctions, Dubai became a russian hub for their business. All corpos doing business with putin are saying now: "we observe sanctions, we do business with Dubayenians" ;) Sheiks are happy as they have a cut from the revenue pushed through Emirati banks.

How they celebrated arrival of the orcs is something different::

It's such a shame that the media do not report these things.

Russia is a pariah state but it's important that everyone in the West understands that we should not interact in any way with Russia or the states and corporations that support the Pariah

Examples are China, South Africa, India, UAE, Saudi A, Brazil, N Korea, Iran, Belarussia etc and then the corporations like the Kerry Group, TOTAL Oil France.

I avoid visiting these countries or buying products of these countries or of rogue corporations.

It's only a small gesture - but since I heard of the Kerry Group Actions, I have not purchased a Kerrygold Product.
I will avoid visiting Dubai and other rogue states and purchasing their product. I try to avoid Chinese made products now. If every person in the West did the same, it would make a big difference
 
Kerrygold are not Kerry group.

Secondly, the way the oil sanctions work is quite clever. It forces Russia to sell oil cheap to the likes of India who resell it to us for a small mark up.

So Russia has it's oil sanctioned without interrupting our supply.
 
Whos winning?

to answer who is winning is hard, as both sides are losing.

There is a super interesting interview with a former Zelensy's advisor - Oleksii Arestovych, who is not advisor since he started pointing Ukrainian flaws (what good advisors should do if you ask me), it was published today for one of the largest Polish papers (equivalent to Times in England):

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author: Ruslan Shoshin

Ołeksij Arestowycz: Wołodymyr Zełenski z Napoleona przekształca się w małego Putina


You are the first person on the Dnieper to reveal his presidential ambitions during the war. Isn't it premature to talk about elections in Ukraine?
Elections are not my goal. I treat it as an opportunity to reflect and think about the situation we find ourselves in. To put it mildly, we are stagnating. To get out of this, we must look for ways to provide society with reliable information. We don't have much room for maneuver under martial law and when all power in the country has been monopolized.

What do you want to convince Ukrainians to do?
War has several stages. The first one lasted from February 24 to April 2, 2022. We won this stage, crushing Russia's plans. We won the battle of Kiev and managed to unite the nation. The second stage of the war lasted until November 1, 2023, until the publication of an article by the commander of the Ukrainian army, General Valery Załuzhny, in "The Economist" (he wrote, among others, about "positional" war and static, exhausting fighting - ed.). During this stage of the war we drew with the Russians. We couldn't win, even though we had ambitious plans. Why? Because our country is corrupt and disorganized. When the Russians lost the first stage of the war, they rushed to invest and develop their arms industry, learned to bypass sanctions and dragged China, North Korea and Iran into the conflict. We, in turn, have done nothing but force help from the West. We have not made any fundamental decisions to change the economic situation or develop the arms industry. We naively assumed that we would defeat a country that invests several dozen times more in its arms. Western aid is not sufficient, the competences of our rulers are running out, the counter-offensive has failed.

Are you suggesting that the third, decisive stage of the war has begun on the Dnieper?
Yes, but we are not prepared for it. Supplies from the West are decreasing because no one knows what direction Ukraine is heading. In theory, we are the country of the greatest freedom, but in reality, human rights are violated in Ukraine, and even a native version of Putinism appears. Americans are reducing our aid and are debating about it not because they don't have money, but because they don't have an answer to the question "why?" Because we ourselves don't know "why". There is less and less freedom in Ukraine and I felt it myself. The actions and threats from the authorities forced me to leave the country. So what are we fighting for? A small dictatorship will never win against a large dictatorship.

In November 2022, as an advisor in the office of the President of Ukraine, in an interview with "Plus Minus", you compared Volodymyr Zelensky to Napoleon. What changed your views?
A year has passed and a lot has changed. Russia made many decisions and bet on a long war, and we did not make these decisions. Moreover, countries consumed by corruption and lawlessness, which persecute people for their views, do not win wars. Napoleon began to transform into a tiny Putin.

In January 2023, you told the media that the Russian missile that hit a residential building in the Dnieper could have been shot down by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense. Later, the air defense forces denied this information, and you explained that you were tired. Was this the reason for your departure from Zelensky's team?
No, it wasn't about that statement. The actions against me began in March 2022, just a month after the outbreak of the full-scale war. I participated in the work of the Ukrainian delegation during the negotiations in Istanbul (short Ukrainian-Russian peace talks at the end of March 2022 - ed.) and I was part of a group of ten people who made the most important decisions in the country. Already then, paid information attacks against me appeared in the Telegram messenger. Even then, many people in Kiev knew that the president's office was attacking a man from the president's office. I knew about it and I endured it for a long time because Ukraine's interests are more important to me.

President Zelensky didn't have more important things on his mind than attacking you?
Who in the president's office could attack the man who was the face of this office without the consent of the head of state? I think the decision was made at the very top. I also have other reasons to think so. It so happened that in September 2023 I was in the United States and Zelensky was there on a visit at the same time. I gave an interview, critical fragments of which were shown to the president. From what I know, he ordered them to "put me in order." I don't know what this means, but our Western partners have warned me not to return to Ukraine for security reasons. I laughed, but I was convinced that the matter was serious. In the meantime, an employee of my online school (Arestowycz conducts online training - ed.) was wiretapped and they even began to openly follow her. Officers of the Security Service of Ukraine dressed as policemen came to my apartment.

I have a schedule of meetings and events planned until spring, I have something to do abroad. I will have time to consider returning. Especially when the ruling party's deputies are demanding my arrest from the rostrum of the Verkhovna Rada.

Are you suggesting that President Zelensky considered you a political competitor?
Of course. In March, April, June and even July 2022, I was second after the president in the ranking of people in whom Ukrainians had the greatest trust. I endured a lot and did not react for a long time. But at some point I came to the conclusion that Zelensky and his team had reached the peak of their competences. Especially after the NATO summit in Vilnius and Zelensky's September visit to the USA. The turning point for me was also the quarrel with Poland and the deterioration of our relations. I was shocked by this madness. I realized that they were doing everything to make us lose this war. I know these people very well, I worked with them for two and a half years, after all, we sat in a bunker together.

Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the Presidential Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, without mentioning your name, suggested in October that you may be exploited by Russia. And later he also suggested that the SBU was examining you.
I treat it as persecution for political reasons. Persecution of a man who began to speak the truth. I would like to know what conclusions the SBU will reach. I held positions that required constant verification of my person by the services. I served in intelligence and was an employee of the president's office. Counterintelligence verified me many times. Did they ever find anything? These are just false accusations, completely baseless. I am considering taking legal action in this matter.

When you started criticizing the government in Kiev, a recording from 2005 from a press conference in Moscow appeared on the Internet, during which, sitting at one table, among others, . with the ideologist of Russian imperialism, Alexander Dugin, you discussed the consequences of the Orange Revolution for the pro-Russian forces on the Dnieper. Can you explain that?
You can easily check what I was doing there. Just send an inquiry to the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR) on this matter. At that time I was a GUR officer. Do you think a military intelligence officer can just go to Moscow, attend a press conference and talk to Dugin? The answer is obvious.

Some of your critics question the fact that you served in intelligence and your participation in the anti-terrorist operation in the east of the country (ATO), which has been ongoing since 2014 after Russia's aggression.
I served in GUR from 1999 to 2005, leaving with the rank of captain. In 2014–2015 I participated in the ATO as a volunteer, and in 2017–2019 I served under contract. First in the 72nd Land Forces Brigade, and later in the Intelligence Directorate of the Land Forces Command. I then received the rank of major. And after the war started in 2022, I was promoted to the rank of lieutenant colonel. I won't say why. I have been awarded many state awards. People who demand my arrest can access this information and submit inquiries to the appropriate state institutions.

For now, the Ukrainian police, at the request of one of the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, have started criminal proceedings regarding one of your lectures, during which you allegedly called for the "strangling of women".
First of all, it was a closed training, it was not a public event. Secondly, during this training I improvised and played the role of a man who hates women. I showed the type of man who is not worth imitating and I directly said that such behavior is unacceptable. Someone took the piece out of context and gave it to the police. Later, I published the entire recording so that people would see that it was manipulation and slander. This once again shows what deputies do in times of war. This is the atmosphere in our country.

to be continued
 
continued:

Recently, in an interview for the Spanish "El Mundo", you talked about the difference of opinion between the president and the commander of the armed forces. What is this difference?
Valery Zaluzhny's article in The Economist shows that the next stage of the war is over and the army has done everything it can. This is a signal sent to the West that new measures are needed. Today it is no longer about tanks, it is about cutting-edge precision weapons, and in large quantities. Otherwise, as Załużny suggests, we will enter a positional war. This is a clear suggestion to politicians that it is their turn to act. Zelensky said that everything was fine and that we could conduct the offensive. This is an abnormal situation.

In 2019, you predicted a large-scale war with Russia, using aviation and missiles. You even said that the Russians would also enter from Belarus. What is your scenario for 2024?
I see three scenarios here. The first assumes that Russia, China and the United States will reach an agreement to stop the war. For us it would no longer be war, but it would not be peace either. The ceasefire would be broken from time to time. Soldiers would start abusing alcohol and shootings would occur. Some units would be sent on leave, some would be completely withdrawn from the front. Dozens of angry people would return to their homes and the country's economic problems would be felt by them. There would be no work for them. We would start to hold accountable our neighbors who were not at war. Local conflicts would arise and there could even be another, third Maidan, this time armed.

The second scenario assumes that the war will continue. The West will dispense aid to Ukraine and we will suffer defeat on several sections of the front. Then we will start throwing ourselves at each other's throats and looking for those to blame. And all this will happen under martial law. The third scenario is dreamlike, from the realm of fantasy. The West will suddenly come to its senses and provide us with huge amounts of weapons and other aid. We will then go on the offensive.

But to be honest, I don't see a positive scenario for Ukraine in 2024. Corruption is a problem for our country. It doesn't just apply to Zelensky. It is a disease of our entire society. Holding yourself accountable is always the hardest thing. When I was a prophet heralding a sweet future, everyone carried me in their arms. As soon as I started telling the truth - because if we don't tell the truth, we will lose this war - society pushed me out of the country.

Or maybe you fell victim to the information policy you created? At the beginning of the war, you were convincing Ukrainians on every TV and radio station that nothing bad was happening and that everything was under control. You fed society only with successes. After you left the president's office, the information policy did not change. Maybe no one on the Dnieper wants to hear the "truth" you preach?
Back then it was about survival and I did everything to make sure we survived. If I had told the truth then, we would have had hundreds of thousands of heart attacks a day. Today I tell the truth so that we can survive. My goal is the same. Then it was necessary to convince the Ukrainians that we were winning and we had won the first stage of the war. I almost single-handedly won the war against the Russian propaganda machine. Today I'm saying all this to wake up, because we will lose.

If it weren't for the war, presidential elections would be held in Ukraine in March 2024, because that's when Zalensky's term expires. However, martial law prevents elections. What will the president do?
Zelensky can do anything. It has a constitutional majority in parliament and can even change the constitution. There are a million ways to conduct elections, even electronically. Ukrainians who have emigrated can vote at Ukrainian embassies. He may also suspend martial law for two weeks, introducing a state of emergency. Abraham Lincoln held elections in the USA under conditions of civil war. However, I don't know if the elections would change anything. Society lives with exaggerated expectations and belief that we will regain the borders of 1991. Yet for five months we have not been able to regain Tokmak (a city in the Zaporizhia Oblast - ed.), which is located 18 kilometers from the front line. The nation also believes that we will join NATO and that we will receive security guarantees. I have doubts.

Do you not believe that Ukraine will manage to regain the borders from 1991?
I don't believe. I have a simple question. And who will guarantee that the war will end when we regain our borders? After all, the war may continue. We have to ask the question differently. We should ask what the guarantees of security, peace and stable development in Europe will be. While in the United States, I understood that corruption is not the main reason for the grudge against Zelensky. Corruption comes second. Zelensky is accused, first of all, of being unable to look at the situation through the eyes of the West.

You have a lot of criticism towards Volodymyr Zelensky. If you were in his place, would you do things differently?
First of all, I would ask for a meeting with the leaders of the G7, NATO countries and the European Union. I would tell them that the system of collective security in the world has been destroyed. I would declare that Ukraine is ready to play as a team, but I would like to hear what they expect from us. We need to take a calculator and calculate how much money we will get from this cooperation. If the United States, for example, invested $100 billion in our industry of titanium and lithium necessary for American aviation, Washington would spend another trillion to defend this investment. NATO would have to determine whether we play on the same team. Together with Poland, we could protect Europe during a possible second round of war with Russia. Our regular army, prepared and trained for war, would have 350,000. soldiers. In addition, there are 350 thousand soldiers of the Polish armed forces. Total is 700 thousand. soldiers. There would be no need for mobilization because Russia would not be able to break through our common strength.

I would go to our closest neighbors, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Slovakia. Because if Ukraine falls, they will be next. Only then will a three-million-strong Russian army arrive in Europe, and angry Ukrainians will hate the West that betrayed them. And then our neighboring countries will suffer first. Therefore, we need to combine the forces of our armaments companies as soon as possible, create joint arms plants on the territory of NATO countries to protect them against Russian attacks.

Will Ukraine be accepted into the alliance?
We should establish this together with NATO countries. If it is not profitable for our partners at this stage and we could be, for example, a NATO partner country, we should agree to it. Provided that we receive certain security guarantees. However, we cannot go out and bang our boots on the tribune, as Khrushchev once did.

And what to do with the occupied territories?
The same thing that South Korea is doing to North Korea, and the same thing that the Federal Republic of Germany once did to the GDR. It must be recognized that we will not give up our territories, but at this stage we are not ready to regain them militarily. We are not children, we should understand that Russia is preparing for a second round of war in Europe. If there was a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, Russia would immediately take advantage of it. I would like to remind you that the Russians have a program to increase their army by over a million people, they are creating new airborne and armored divisions. These are not preparations for defense. We should accelerate the arming of our armies, formalize our cooperation and do everything to prevent this great war from happening. We should all play on one team.
 
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