Have we turned the corner?

[jd26]

It might seem a strange thread to start considering the market turmoil of recent days...

Some people might remember me arguing a few weeks back that Ireland was now out of the woods barring external shocks. That wasn't to say that time weren't going to be hard for a few years, but that at least I could see a situation where we could return to fiscal normality in the medium-term future.

Anyway, today S&P has upgraded Ireland's ratings outlook to stable. So, it's starting to look like others are coming around to that line of thinking.

Now, the possibility of external shocks is still there, but it now looks like we don't have to worry about internal issues.

 

[jams]

To be fair - no one's told us we've turned a corner in about 6 months - so i guess it's possible.

How come our S&P upgrade isn't on RTE?

 

[Mong The Merciless]

Brian Lenihan turned so many corners and look where he is now.

Wait until the December budget and see what happens. Also the clusterfuck that is the Euro/markets/ratings agencies is a fucking jokeshop.

 

[The Curious Lozenge]

ya i think so. no more hidden losses in the banks, 2 banks going forward that are well funded. An investor finally bought into BOI and avoided majority state control. exports strong. looks like our debt is not as unpayable as we thought, especially now with the rate cut. last tax returns were slightly above expectations. The consumer confidence will return in time.

unemployment still rising though, but surely we're near the bottom of that too.

a bit of positivity. repped jd.

 

[jd26]

To be fair - no one's told us we've turned a corner in about 6 months - so i guess it's possible.

How come our S&P upgrade isn't on RTE?

It's not that our debt rating has been upgraded, but that they're saying that they don't expect to downgrade it again.

So it's not a massive improvement in the situation, but still a slightly positive bit of news.

Just so long as Europe can sort the general Eurozone debt mess and the US doesn't slip back into recession because of the fudged solution to the debt ceiling...

 

[Mong The Merciless]

Unemployment isn't decreasing stateside and economic growth is negligible. If one of the ratings agencies decide to cut their AAA+ rating then they are goosed and heading for a double-dip.

Even Australia with high commodity prices is cutting back growth forecasts.

 

[TheDopplerEffect]

Just so long as Europe can sort the general Eurozone debt mess and the US doesn't slip back into recession because of the fudged solution to the debt ceiling...

…and that won’t happen anytime soon as all the EU leaders are on holidays. What a joke.

 

[POL]

green shoots

 

[jd26]

More like a seed germinating underground.

It doesn't mean that unemployment is likely to drop significantly in the near future and it doesn't mean that we won't have two more budgets of cuts, but it should at least give confidence that we're starting to stabilise.

 

[Mong The Merciless]

At least the unemployment numbers in American didn't increase so there may be a knock-on confidence boost to the economy.