Elon Musk buys Twitter

Happyhonkaman said:
Total greenhorn hat on now.. is this because purchasing stocks and shares would have required you to have an account with the likes of Davy up until say 15 years ago, and most of those customers would have been private wealth being sent in for investment by traders in there who knew what they were at, and if you did fancy a solo run when you rang to ask that they buy Tesla shares for you someone would have said exactly the kind of things you just did and most would have backed down. Whereas now there are countless online/app platforms meaning your average Joe Soap can speculate and dabble freely so you the price is distorted by people investing in brands and ideas as much as market data?
Click to expand...
No, because fundamentally, individual shares are incredibly uncertain and even professional fund managers get it wrong most of the time.

Depending on the study you believe, between 80-90% of fund managers* fail to beat the stock market index over the medium term, either on the way up, or the way down (i.e. in a falling market, they tend to lose more than just the index).* It's a much worse picture once you add fees, fund managers charge way more than passive funds that just track indices and their returns in good markets are much worse as they take a substantial cut of profits.



There's a load of economic theory behind why***, and loads (probably most) of economists that believe all you need is the right equations to beat the market. But the evidence is that you can't over the medium term.

The people who are right regularly isn't consistent over time either, there's very few who have consistently beaten the market****.

So I embrace that fact, just buy index trackers, because that way, you're beating the vast majority of fund managers. Never going to get the very best performance but the evidence is that picking those top performers ahead of time is basically impossible. And if they can't get it right, the chances I will are quite low.


* e.g. according to this, it's 88% in US, 92% in Europe fail to beat equivalent index trackers https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/

**this dude's cat can beat most fund managers by picking shares at random https://medium.com/limitless-invest...ne-wall-street-with-a-226-return-203f5ac30131

*** Such as the efficient market hypothesis which is really badly misunderstood and mischaracterised in the popular press.

**** e.g. Neil Woodford who outperformed the market for 25 years until he very, very much didn't:
 
How bad boy said:
No, because fundamentally, individual shares are incredibly uncertain and even professional fund managers get it wrong most of the time.

Depending on the study you believe, between 80-90% of fund managers* fail to beat the stock market index over the medium term, either on the way up, or the way down (i.e. in a falling market, they tend to lose more than just the index).* It's a much worse picture once you add fees, fund managers charge way more than passive funds that just track indices and their returns in good markets are much worse as they take a substantial cut of profits.



There's a load of economic theory behind why***, and loads (probably most) of economists that believe all you need is the right equations to beat the market. But the evidence is that you can't over the medium term.

The people who are right regularly isn't consistent over time either, there's very few who have consistently beaten the market****.

So I embrace that fact, just buy index trackers, because that way, you're beating the vast majority of fund managers. Never going to get the very best performance but the evidence is that picking those top performers ahead of time is basically impossible. And if they can't get it right, the chances I will are quite low.


* e.g. according to this, it's 88% in US, 92% in Europe fail to beat equivalent index trackers https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/

**this dude's cat can beat most fund managers by picking shares at random https://medium.com/limitless-invest...ne-wall-street-with-a-226-return-203f5ac30131

*** Such as the efficient market hypothesis which is really badly misunderstood and mischaracterised in the popular press.

**** e.g. Neil Woodford who outperformed the market for 25 years until he very, very much didn't:
Click to expand...
Cheers for the response HBB (y)
 

Trump is spit-roasting Musk!

Things are undoubtedly bad at Tesla. Its sales are dwindling. Its profits are plunging, as is its share price. There are regular protests outside its showrooms. The Cybertruck is a flop. And somehow, it’s actually a lot worse than that.

The 71% drop in net income it just reported may have been overshadowed by CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that he would be stepping back from his controversial duties at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). But that drop is just one indication of serious financial sickness at the EV maker, problems brought on by falling sales for the first time in its history and falling prices for electric vehicles.

The bottom line problem at Tesla is its vanishing bottom line. A deeper look at its first quarter report shows it’s now losing money on what should be its ostensible reason for existence – selling cars.

It was only able to post a $409 million profit in the quarter thanks to the sale of $595 million worth of regulatory credits to other automakers.

But if the Trump administration gets its way, the company can kiss those regulatory credits keeping it in the black goodbye, too.
I
 
an liathroid beag said:

Trump is spit-roasting Musk!

Things are undoubtedly bad at Tesla. Its sales are dwindling. Its profits are plunging, as is its share price. There are regular protests outside its showrooms. The Cybertruck is a flop. And somehow, it’s actually a lot worse than that.

The 71% drop in net income it just reported may have been overshadowed by CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that he would be stepping back from his controversial duties at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). But that drop is just one indication of serious financial sickness at the EV maker, problems brought on by falling sales for the first time in its history and falling prices for electric vehicles.

The bottom line problem at Tesla is its vanishing bottom line. A deeper look at its first quarter report shows it’s now losing money on what should be its ostensible reason for existence – selling cars.

It was only able to post a $409 million profit in the quarter thanks to the sale of $595 million worth of regulatory credits to other automakers.

But if the Trump administration gets its way, the company can kiss those regulatory credits keeping it in the black goodbye, too.
I
Click to expand...
And yet, Tesla shares are up 24% since the 21st April. Tesla has a current market capitalisation of $908 billion, is almost exactly the same as the current market caps of Toyota, BYD, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, BMW, Stellantis, Ferarri, Honda, General Motors and Ford combined.

That 24% rise is VW, GM and Ford combined, who sell approximately 20 million vehicles annually between them.

Tesla's current run rate is about 2 million.


I reiterate, there's a reason I tend not to invest in individual shares.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page

EVENT GUIDE - HIGHLIGHT
Search Results
Coughlan's, Douglas St.
19th Sep 2025 @ 8:00 pm
More info..
  





DJ Big Daddy Can
The Vicarstown, Tomorrow @ 11:30pm
More events ▼

					
					
				

			
		


		
		
	
		
	

		
	









 



	
	




	

		Top
		
	




	

	





	
	
		
		
			
		
	




















 







	

		



			

		




	


			
• Home

			
• Forums

			
• Events

			
• Tickets

			
• Articles

			
• Street Art

			
• Cork Slang

			
• Contact

			
• Shop

			
						


	




Website designed and developed by PROC (and your mam)