Economics Nerd Central/ The Global Inflation Thread

The Bank of England notes that markets now expect Bank Rate to average 5.5% for three years - which implies mortgage misery (2 yr mortgage rates of 6% plus) will be with them till long after the next general election.
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House price falls and recession to follow?
Yep.

I wonder if there's a reason why the UK's inflation rose higher than other developed economies and is falling slower?

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And why is it the markets clearly think inflation is going to stay higher longer term in the UK?
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It's a complete mystery.
 
Yep.

I wonder if there's a reason why the UK's inflation rose higher than other developed economies and is falling slower?

View attachment 22338


And why is it the markets clearly think inflation is going to stay higher longer term in the UK?
View attachment 22339


It's a complete mystery.
They used to have levers, brakes, access to labour from an entire continent as it demanded and now they are in a high inflationary death-loop.
 
Forecasts for Bank Of England base rate to be between 5.75 (JP Morgan) and 6% (market consensus) by the end of this year.



It was 0.1% in Nov 2021, 0.75% when this thread was started 15 months ago.
Base rate is now 5.25%.

If inflation doesn't reduce significantly in August, it'll be going up again, couple of members of the MPC wanted 5.5%.

The majority of pain is yet to come

The pain will not be distributed evenly

As per way too many other policies, the boomers continue to boom
 
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