Attempted coup in Turkey

[Gary_Duff]

If 3/1 accurately reflects the probability of a second referendum before 2019 then the real odds of it not happening is 1/3. The fact they offer 1/5 is merely them scalping you. Conversely if 1/5 is the real price for no referendum then you should be offered 5/1 to bet on it to happen. It's also possible they are taking a cut of both prices, but how you can argue their prices are not an indicator of probabilities is beyond me, the skew may not allow for a 100% accuracy but they are an indicator nonetheless.

The raisin d'etre of bookies is to scalp you, m8. Therefore their "predictions" are unreliable. That's the point we're both making I think.

Both prices above can't be accurate indicators of probability. One or both are therefore inaccurate. It's not possible to say which. So to say that a price of 2/1 translates to an actual probability of 33% is flawed logic from the start.

There's a tennis tournament going on at the moment. Two possible outcomes in each match. Head over to Paddy Power's website and have a look at the odds for the winner on each match. I guarantee you that you won't find a single pairing that follows your logic.

The way people make money off the bookies is to identify instances where the actual probability of a given outcome is greater than the "probability" represented by the bookies' odds.

http://www.peoplesrepublicofcork.com/forums/showthread.php?t=232156

http://www.peoplesrepublicofcork.com/forums/showthread.php?t=236912

 

[CaptainSensible]

The raisin d'etre of bookies is to scalp you, m8. Therefore their "predictions" are unreliable. That's the point we're both making I think.

Both prices above can't be accurate indicators of probability. One or both are therefore inaccurate. It's not possible to say which. So to say that a price of 2/1 translates to an actual probability of 33% is flawed logic from the start.

There's a tennis tournament going on at the moment. Two possible outcomes in each match. Head over to Paddy Power's website and have a look at the odds for the winner on each match. I guarantee you that you won't find a single pairing that follows your logic.

The way people make money off the bookies is to identify instances where the actual probability of a given outcome is greater than the "probability" represented by the bookies' odds.

http://www.peoplesrepublicofcork.com/forums/showthread.php?t=232156

http://www.peoplesrepublicofcork.com/forums/showthread.php?t=236912

Look I agree, now this did go off on a bit of a tangent, initially I was taking issue with Blues logic of saying article 50 is unlikely to be invoked anytime soon and he used prices to back up his argument. It was easier to dismantle his argument by assuming the prices were 100% accurate and then pointing out the flaws in his logic, as he had developed his point on the assumption the prices were accurate.

Granted you did point out that the bookies have bloodlust for a profit and hence skew the prices, so yes what I implied in reality wasn't totally correct, but from the assumptions Blues was making, it was, and to be honest there was no point introducing additional information that would only leave him more confused.

Anyways back to more important matters, when does this betting competition kick off for this year, like everyone else I guess I do fancy myself as a punter so prepare to surrender your crown.

 

[Pepe]

A gr8 deb8 here guys.

 

[CORKBHOY]

I have Gar the 4/6 favourite to prevail, with the Captain 21/20.

 

[Gary_Duff]

Look I agree, now this did go off on a bit of a tangent, initially I was taking issue with Blues logic of saying article 50 is unlikely to be invoked anytime soon and he used prices to back up his argument. It was easier to dismantle his argument by assuming the prices were 100% accurate and then pointing out the flaws in his logic, as he had developed his point on the assumption the prices were accurate.

Granted you did point out that the bookies have bloodlust for a profit and hence skew the prices, so yes what I implied in reality wasn't totally correct, but from the assumptions Blues was making, it was, and to be honest there was no point introducing additional information that would only leave him more confused.

Anyways back to more important matters, when does this betting competition kick off for this year, like everyone else I guess I do fancy myself as a punter so prepare to surrender your crown.

It's already underway, m8.

http://www.peoplesrepublicofcork.com/forums/showthread.php?t=237364

There are a few eager beavers betting on the GAA and early European football rounds, but it doesn't really get going properly until the Premier League season kicks off.

It would be gr8 to have a non-SF regular on board. I doubt you'd last the pace tbh but the more the merrier.

#bringiton

 

[Blueswannabe]

I wasn't saying bookies made it more likely, I was saying if you're so sure of it why not put your money where your mouth is. I've said several times the bookies got it wrong on Brexit though I still believe weather probably had biggest influence on it, if it was a sunny day I think remain could have edged it. As someone pointed out ye hyper focused on the odds but no one didputed the political reality that for the Tories kicking the can down the road is the best tactic. Someone said "the brits want it" their pm doesn't even despite what she's saying now, the Germans want it, they do like f**k, they want to keep selling their cars in uk unimpeded, look at how calm Merkel has been about it, the French want it, unsure,channel tunnel will be a balls. Like a real discussion and referendum on abortion in this country, the eu say we need it, the un say we need it, the gov say they'll resolve the issue but like Brexit, politically kicking the can down the road while making excuses and delaying indefinitely suits them fine.

Bookies while not an indicator something will happen get it right more often than wrong, they wouldn't be in business otherwise sure.

But back to Turkey: It's fucked basically.

 

[Blueswannabe]

 

[CORKBHOY]

I wasn't saying bookies made it more likely, I was saying if you're so sure of it why not put your money where your mouth is. I've said several times the bookies got it wrong on Brexit though I still believe weather probably had biggest influence on it, if it was a sunny day I think remain could have edged it. As someone pointed out ye hyper focused on the odds but no one didputed the political reality that for the Tories kicking the can down the road is the best tactic. Someone said "the brits want it" their pm doesn't even despite what she's saying now, the Germans want it, they do like f**k, they want to keep selling their cars in uk unimpeded, look at how calm Merkel has been about it, the French want it, unsure,channel tunnel will be a balls. Like a real discussion and referendum on abortion in this country, the eu say we need it, the un say we need it, the gov say they'll resolve the issue but like Brexit, politically kicking the can down the road while making excuses and delaying indefinitely suits them fine.

Bookies while not an indicator something will happen get it right more often than wrong, they wouldn't be in business otherwise sure.

But back to Turkey: It's fucked basically.

Do FG or FF do better in elections when it's sunny?

 

[ex-craichead]

“We’ve shot four people. Everything’s fine.” The Turkish Coup through the Eyes of its Plotters

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/07/24/the-turkey-coup-through-the-eyes-of-its-plotters/

A group of plotters of the failed Turkish coup attempt used a WhatsApp group to communicate with each other. Bellingcat has transcribed, translated, and analysed the conversation, thereby cross-referencing the messages with photos, videos, and news reports of the evening, night, and morning of July 15-16

 

[Handy Run]

Erdogan fired his chief of stats who apparently refused to report artificially lower inflation. Instead, he predicted 40%.
The lira is focked