Economics Nerd Central/ The Global Inflation Thread

+now that people struggling with their mortgages rising will have to go to their boss and ask for a pay rise which will increase the costs of goods and services thus contribution to inflation.

Up to just over a year a go interest rates were very low for a very long time and energy costs were on the floor with C-19.

Mind you everybody saved up and payed down debt etc during C-19 years for a rainy day?
The explosion in the costs of holidays and diy might say otherwise. Mind you after C-19 I think it'd be a miserable bastard that would judge people for doing a bit of a splurge. Could be a lot of people put some away and had a bit of a splurge.
 
+now that people struggling with their mortgages rising will have to go to their boss and ask for a pay rise which will increase the costs of goods and services thus contribution to inflation.

Up to just over a year a go interest rates were very low for a very long time and energy costs were on the floor with C-19.

Mind you everybody saved up and payed down debt etc during C-19 years for a rainy day?
Or got laid off from their jobs due to the government extending the furlough cover way, way too fucking late...
 
The explosion in the costs of holidays and diy might say otherwise. Mind you after C-19 I think it'd be a miserable bastard that would judge people for doing a bit of a splurge. Could be a lot of people put some away and had a bit of a splurge.
Most people who could afford to did a bit of both.

The amount of people doing house extensions, refurbishments, solar panels etc has gone mad.
 
Surely that counts as investment though?
Quite right, in GDP statistics, Savings are actually a negative, working against GDP, Investment is a positive, so it should be possible to interpret that from the data.


In other news, there was a very interesting interview by Alistair Campbell and Rory Stewart of Kate Rayworth a couple of weeks ago on their Leading podcast that prompted a number of thoughts about this "Doughnut Economics" and shifting away from GDP Growth as the be all and end all of economics:

Some really excellent and provocative points, I don't think Campbell and Stewart asked particular good questions, but there some ideas there I could really get behind.

As a thought experiment, there's a hilariously bad 100k people commuting by bike in Ireland today, 1.2 million drive to work.

If you increased that to 500k by bike and 800k by car, it'd potentially have a massively negative effect on GDP in the following ways:
Reduced car purchases
Lower spending on fuel
Lower spending on gyms (as what's the point if you're commuting by bike?)
Lower spending on health care as you have a healthier population
Lower spend on road maintenance as bikes do far, far less damage to roads
Lower parking charge income


But would life actually be worse? You'd end up with a healthier population, far less traffic congestion, less road noise and a huge drop in resource usage, with a more sustainable economy.

I would say that's better but in purely GDP terms, it'd suggest it's a much, much worse world.
 
Quite right, in GDP statistics, Savings are actually a negative, working against GDP, Investment is a positive, so it should be possible to interpret that from the data.


In other news, there was a very interesting interview by Alistair Campbell and Rory Stewart of Kate Rayworth a couple of weeks ago on their Leading podcast that prompted a number of thoughts about this "Doughnut Economics" and shifting away from GDP Growth as the be all and end all of economics:

Some really excellent and provocative points, I don't think Campbell and Stewart asked particular good questions, but there some ideas there I could really get behind.

As a thought experiment, there's a hilariously bad 100k people commuting by bike in Ireland today, 1.2 million drive to work.

If you increased that to 500k by bike and 800k by car, it'd potentially have a massively negative effect on GDP in the following ways:
Reduced car purchases
Lower spending on fuel
Lower spending on gyms (as what's the point if you're commuting by bike?)
Lower spending on health care as you have a healthier population
Lower spend on road maintenance as bikes do far, far less damage to roads
Lower parking charge income


But would life actually be worse? You'd end up with a healthier population, far less traffic congestion, less road noise and a huge drop in resource usage, with a more sustainable economy.

I would say that's better but in purely GDP terms, it'd suggest it's a much, much worse world.
Funnily enough, missed the CO2 environmental benefits, which of course would be another sizeable benefit and is usually cited as the primary reason for promoting cycling...
 
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The Bank of England notes that markets now expect Bank Rate to average 5.5% for three years - which implies mortgage misery (2 yr mortgage rates of 6% plus) will be with them till long after the next general election.
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House price falls and recession to follow?
 
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