the official betting thread.

[Nollaig O Muracu]

It's bullshit Cloudy m8.

Andrew Mount in the latest SBC podcast spoke about how gamblers are being treated like drug dealers nowadays. Can't remember his exact words but he spoke about banks and gamblers too (well worth a listen jsut for gambling btw). It's like every single person who likes to gamble is a degenerate with no self control or no clue.

 

[Philby]

I've been working on a golf betting model, heavily based around the Bookie Bashing golf model (...although they typically consider ~3 metrics but I've taken 6 into account for this tournament and it scales to ~20 metrics with no extra effort)

The way it works:

- The model takes in a range of key metrics for all PGA golfers
- User then specifies which metrics are most important for a given tournament and ranks them on a 1 to 3 scale, where 3 is most important
- Then it calculates a weighted average rank for all golfers, focusing only on those key metrics
- A filter then automatically filters for only those golfers who are playing in the specific tournament
- Then the Betfair odds are pulled in (winner, e/w, top 10, top 20)
- Finally the "Odds vs Metrics Diff" column highlights the degree to which each golfers odds are in line or out of line with their weight average metrics-based rank

For the AT&T Byron Nelson starting tomorrow I chose the following ranked metrics, based on reviewing a few betting previews.

Driv Dist - 3
Strokes gained putting - 2
Birdie or better % - 2
Approach from 175-200 yards - 2
Approach from 200+ yards - 1
Scrambling - 1

In the diagram below I've plotted the Betfair win odds against the rating (...which I've scaled down to a 1-5 scale). This is filtered to only show players who are 229/1 or under and have a scaled rating of at least 1.8.

The spreadsheet at the bottom shows the key numbers, again filtered for everyone at 229/1 or under. Scottie Scheffler is rightly top of the odds & metrics list, but I could never bring myself to back a 4/1 shot in golf unless it was peak Tiger.

Bets-wise I'm going for the following:

Taylor Montgomery each-way (10 places) @ 32.0
Aaron Wise each-way (10 places) @ 50.0
Byeong Hun An each-way (10 places) @ 50.0
Harry Hall each-way (10 places) @ 90.0
Will Gordon top 10 @ 8.6
Harry Hall top 20 @ 6.0

Any questions or suggestions ping them my way

The frustrating thing with this is it puts a lot of guys on your radar who could be value, but you need to apply some sensible filtering criteria & judgement to pick a few to back.



Take the first round leader, Seung-yul Noh.

When I crunched the numbers first he was the second highest on that list in terms of value, but because he was a massive 709/1 to win he wasn't on my radar after I applied a (pretty arbitrary) filter to only focus on golfers who were 229/1 or shorter.

He's now shortened in to 14/1 to win and even money (in from 25/1) to finish in the top 10. Them's the breaks though. You can't back them all.

Of the ones I did back nobody did anything special in round 1. Byeong Hun An & Hall are vaguely well placed to give me interest through to the final round for top 10 and top 20 placings.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

The frustrating thing with this is it puts a lot of guys on your radar who could be value, but you need to apply some sensible filtering criteria & judgement to pick a few to back.

View attachment 20986

Take the first round leader, Seung-yul Noh.

When I crunched the numbers first he was the second highest on that list in terms of value, but because he was a massive 709/1 to win he wasn't on my radar after I applied a (pretty arbitrary) filter to only focus on golfers who were 229/1 or shorter.

He's now shortened in to 14/1 to win and even money (in from 25/1) to finish in the top 10. Them's the breaks though. You can't back them all.

Of the ones I did back nobody did anything special in round 1. Byeong Hun An & Hall are vaguely well placed to give me interest through to the final round for top 10 and top 20 placings.

View attachment 20987

What about just filtering out the 999/1 shots? I'm assuming the prices in your model there are exchange prices?? The top four <1000 seemed to have had a reasonable to excellent first round and could all make the cut.

You could still even keep your <230 picks and throw in one or two from the higher bracket as shots to nothing from your spare change.

Even Werenski had a great round.

Maybe the first round leader market could be good for these guys. I'm no golf expert but my understanding would be that the pretenders are always capable of having a blistering start but then the cream usually rises to the top and produces the eventual winner.

 

[Philby]

That's a great shout Cloudy. Yes, those are exchange prices.

I think your rationale on the first round leader angle is solid. Along similar lines a good approach might be to throw a few darts at the huge odds guys, with a view to laying off one or more if they overachieve after round 1 or 2? (...or ride them out if you think they'll be able to last the trip)

Get lucky with one or two of those and they'll fund the more realistics (under 230/1 punts) for a few tournaments.

 

[Cloudy O'Ranieri]

 

[Philby]

A little left-field, but interesting

Eurovision 2023: The man who made a living betting his house on a song

Tempted to bet on the outcome of a song contest? Here's how one man made a living out of it.

www.bbc.com

 

[Philby]

Worth a flutter. He's on 1.2 shots on target per PL game and 1.7 on a per 90mins basis.

 

[Philby]

 

[Nollaig O Muracu]

Luke Paton's latest thread (which I receive by email and it's a much better read)

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lpaton80

May 14

I had made a conscious effort to avoid betting shops for many years. They simply weren't worth the hassle involved. However, a few months ago I decided to start using them again for certain bets not offered on Exchanges. Nothing exciting. Not top prices. The betting industry has a fundamental problem. It is run and operated by absolute clowns who are a complete law unto themselves. I have said this before but the standards adhered to in this day and age are utterly pathetic. Let me give a few examples.

I wont use the specific names because I have ongoing issues with them. The first one I remember was having a disagreement with a shop staff member over money put into a machine. I said I had. She said the machine was empty and that I was lying. I was very polite. She was rude and abrasive. I was like ok and walked off knowing it was immaterial to what I was doing. Next time I went in she apologised and said here's the money. I appreciated it. It does highlight one overwhelming feeling though. The staff are constantly on the back foot, always looking for negative behaviours. Not a fun environment to work in. It took almost six weeks and maybe eight trips to that shop to get enough cash to pay me out one bet at the back end of last year. It was only in the four figures.

Since then we have had multiple shops refuse bets over the counter, we have been banned from machines, banned from shops, etc etc. Mostly for having the temerity of trying to win. The constant requests for ID. Do you have a phone number, etc? Desperate to know who I am. Err no. F**k off. I can live with all that just about. It's all just part of this bulls**t game we play in, where the bookmakers pretend to be bookmakers but are only interested in complete mugs. I always make an effort to be polite and courteous as I realise that it is not the staffs fault but usually Head Office.

What has happened this week though I cannot tolerate and it just reiterates what a joke the Gambling Commission is that it still goes on. I walk into a shop I have been into maybe 6/7 times in the last few weeks. I have had a nice result and need to collect some money. I don’t know any of the staff as I have never placed a bet over the counter. Just on the machines. I was thinking that I wouldn’t be flagged up until I tried to collect the winnings from the bet. Before I had reached the machines I was asked to come to the counter. So I duly obliged. I am told I am banned from the shop. Fine. Whatever.

What's abundantly clear though is that I have been picked up on cameras entering the shop or the use of a photo behind the counter. I talked about this last year and how it used to happen 6/7 years ago. People doubted it. I enquired as to whether they had a photo of me behind the counter. I was told no. I asked do you have photos of any customers. I was told no. If I wanted any more information I would have to make a Freedom of Information request. I said that’s interesting as I was in one of your other shops recently and there were a few photos behind the counter. The shop had said it related to Problem Gamblers. So we start with staff/managers quite happy to lie to your face. That's fine and you know where you stand. On the last visit one of the staff did admit that they have CCTV footage everywhere. Implying it was what had flagged up. I don’t know the legalities these days with regard to betting shops and CCTV footage. I have no doubts it can serve a purpose for Problem Gamblers. Winning punters. Hmm. I would be surprised if the ICO has signed off on that. Nothing would surprise though.

I am then told by the Manager that he needs to contact someone at Head Office. I am once again aggressively asked as to who I am and it is needed to keep things moving forward. I said no you don’t. He then said he needs to speak to someone else. At this point I had been in the shop about 30 minutes. I said I needed to leave as I couldn’t wait around endlessly. I had other bets to try and place. The bet slips had already been locked at this point. I assume that this means that no one can pay out unless cleared and authorised. I returned two days later and was hopeful that I would be able to start making some inroads into collecting the money that I am owed. I understood that the shop may not have it all at once. I was aware that I couldn’t just have all the money that they have in the safe. That they needed money for other customers. So I went in with a couple of relatively small slips. I am told that I was asking for too much. I could tell they were just being difficult.

We then went through the situation of Head Office being phoned again as the bet slips were still locked. No idea what is going on. Having waited patiently I am then told that I cant be paid any money as someone needs to send someone else an email. On a weekend. Good luck. Another 40 mins wasted. This endless sham and charade continues. It can only be done when the Manager is back in. When will that be? Not sure. Can you start keeping some extra cash in the safe so that when I do return you are actually able to start repaying some of the money owed. Err no. Brilliant.

It is absolutely insane in this day and age the amount of utter bulls**t that a company will try and make people go through to simply collect some winnings back in cash. It is tough to comprehend the number of hours wasted already trying to sort it out. I then had the joys of turning up at a different shop just after it opened. The lady was we don’t have the cash we said we would have a few days ago. I said ok I will take less. Oh sorry sir you will have to wait 45 mins as the safe cant be opened for half an hour after the shop opens.

Honestly shoot me. I understand it is not easy to pull together cash. The onus is on you though as a business to sort it out. Put procedures and methods in place that can deal with it. Sometimes customers even place winning bets. And want paying back in the same way they placed the bets. Let's not let affordability checks cloud the issue, that both online and in retail shops, that these bookmakers still continue to behave like absolute cowboys. Restrict me. Ban me. Whatever your pathetic organisation needs. You need to pay up and out though in a timely manner.

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Bookmakers want locking up nowadays. This kind of carry on is beyond pathetic.

 

[Philby]

I caught that over the weekend. Beyond frustrating. They regularly act in ways that no other licensed business would be allowed to act.