Went down a lunch break rabbit hole lads. 12 games to go. To get to the magical 89 pts mark (...which this guy reckons would give you a ~97% likelihood of winning the league) quoted above - Liverpool need 29 more points...City need 30, Arsenal need 31 and Man Utd need 45.
Really doesn't give you much margin for error, as there are two sides chasing you instead of one.
< anti-yerrah > Looking at it that way I think it's got to be Liverpool or City, most likely City tbf. No slight on Arsenal, who are motoring along really nicely. But I think the extra 1-2 points that Arsenal are behind now will hurt them in the end. I'd have said the same if positions were reversed < / anti-yerrah >
Can they really go W10-D1-L1 with City (A), Chelsea, Spurs (A) & Man Utd (A) in their run-in?
Can they do it knowing that City would be level with them with a W9-D3-L0 run (..at a 2.5 points per game run that they are more than capable of)?
Something like this run below would get Liverpool to the 89 pt mark (W9 - D2 - L1).
Forest (A)
Man City (H) - Draw
Everton (A)
Brighton (H)
Sheff Utd (H)
Man Utd (A) - Loss
Palace (H)
Fulham (A)
West Ham (A)
Spurs (H) - Draw
Villa (A)
Wolves (H)
Tough, but not beyond a side, like City, with muscle memory for strong runs at the business end of seasons. Hard to underline how big the Liverpool-v-City game is in just under 2 weeks time.
Looking at the upcoming fixtures, if Liverpool don't extend their lead (over City mainly, but ideally both) across the next 5 games then I'd be very pessimistic about a 20th league title coming to Anfield this season.
