The Official Arsenal Thread - Part 2

[Lee Bushwacker]

What I will never understand is how big clubs like United and Arsenal are not copying the shit out of what Brighton and others are doing.

Caicedo for 70 million is a big gamble, Caicedo for the 5 million paid for him is nothing. United were rumoured to be in for him before he joined Brighton but wisely decided not to heed Ralfs advice and sent 11 million to Florida instead.

He took mcfred apart on the opening day of the season just to compound the wise decision.


There's bargains out there if you look. FFS Leceister bought Mahrez and Kante for a donor kebab and chips.

Ferguson had an excellent scouting system in place but it seems that it's fallen into decay since he left.

 

[Philby]

this, its not like only Brighton had heard of Caicedo, i'd say every scouting network of any PL (or continental) club knew of him...

Big clubs aren't doing their shopping in the same shops as 'smaller clubs' due to pressure on delivering whatever is their target (league title, race for CL/TNCL), in short, bigger clubs don't have time to fuck around and usually opt to pay a premium once they have more assurances X or Y is likely to be a successful signing.

that's not to say 'big clubs' never take a gamble or never give time to unproven players, it'd be a wrong statement, plenty examples out there showing it but we're only talking 1-2 of these players per big clubs at most.

Take this for example. When Brighton were looking at options to replace Bissouma it was by no means a no-brainer that Caicedo, who they got in pro-actively before Bissouma moved on, would slot in and quickly perform to a very similar level.

Trying to sell Caicedo as the solution to Man Utd's DM woes, at that point in time, would be tougher again. No matter how many selectively edited youtube compilatons were on offer.

It's a compelling narrative but I don't buy the "big clubs are dumb" line. City, Liverpool & Arsenal have very sophisticated analytics teams and I hear Man Utd have bumped up their investment in that area too.

To a large degree where you are on the food chain can dictate the % of your buys that are in the potential bargain category. An interesting section of Rory's Smith book on xG related to Arsenal. It outlined how the owner of StatDNA ultimately convinced Wenger to greenlight Arsenal's purchase of the company by outlining how StatDNA's analytics would've raised some big red flags recommending against buying Marouane Chamakh and Park Chu-young.

I reckon we'll increasingly see big clubs parking young prospects at clubs within their network (e.g. City Football Group) and letting them sink or swim there before deciding to bring them back to the mothership at unsurprisingly modest fees. So big clubs can have their cake & eat it.

Caveat: Caicedo's stats are adjusted (downwards) because of the quality gap between the top tier in Ecuador vs England

 

[marco 2005]

Take this for example. When Brighton were looking at options to replace Bissouma it was by no means a no-brainer that Caicedo, who they got in pro-actively before Bissouma moved on, would slot in and quickly perform to a very similar level.

Trying to sell Caicedo as the solution to Man Utd's DM woes, at that point in time, would be tougher again. No matter how many selectively edited youtube compilatons were on offer.

It's a compelling narrative but I don't buy the "big clubs are dumb" line. City, Liverpool & Arsenal have very sophisticated analytics teams and I hear Man Utd have bumped up their investment in that area too.

To a large degree where you are on the food chain can dictate the % of your buys that are in the potential bargain category. An interesting section of Rory's Smith book on xG related to Arsenal. It outlined how the owner of StatDNA ultimately convinced Wenger to greenlight Arsenal's purchase of the company by outlining how StatDNA's analytics would've raised some big red flags recommending against buying Marouane Chamakh and Park Chu-young.

I reckon we'll increasingly see big clubs parking young prospects at clubs within their network (e.g. City Football Group) and letting them sink or swim there before deciding to bring them back to the mothership at unsurprisingly modest fees. So big clubs can have their cake & eat it.

Caveat: Caicedo's stats are adjusted (downwards) because of the quality gap between the top tier in Ecuador vs England

this, in bold, that's what i was getting at and couldn't phrase in such a succinct way.

Arsenal/Liverpool/City/ManYoo etc don't need to copy Brighton/Leicester models (or Southampton a few seasons ago when Liverpool were often shopping there), as 1) they don't need to and 2) it's not in their best interest.

I remember people laughing (not on here) years back when StasDNA was bought, as you said, it is a great tool for the potential buyer to gauge/forecast a player's potential development/impact but it has its flaws too, Ospina was bought on the back of a StatDNA recommendation, same for Chambers and Giroud (i'd argue Giroud's signing wasn't as bad overall as some people suggest).

Agreed on your prediction/suspicion about the satellite/mothership model, can very well see it happen....

On a slightly similar topic, here's a piece of info you might not already know, Bill Foley, the Bournemouth owner, became, a few weeks ago, a minority share holder in my home town club and guess what? they bought Ouattara few days later...

 

[Bandon Langer]

Not sure I like owners having multiple clubs tbphwy m8s

 

[Donald Trump]

Good post Phil, but I disagree slightly.

For every evra or Vidic Ferguson bought for half nothing, there were a number of gambles that didn't pay off.

5 million is nothing to United. They could have doubled or trebled the price for Caicedo and it would still have been a small risk. He'd be more than adequate cover in Midfield right now if you wanted to rest or replaced players there in what will be a long season.

 

[Philby]

It's OK m8, I still love you

 

[Donald Trump]

It's OK m8, I still love you

Don't you be trying anything just because my missus is away m8.

I'm. Spoken. For.

 

[Philby]

Don't you be trying anything just because my missus is away m8.

I'm. Spoken. For.

The disrespect he showed you over Ole-gate m8

Never thought you two would come back from that. Especially with him flouting Lukaku in your face.

The bond(age) is strong.

 

[Donald Trump]

The disrespect he showed you over Ole-gate m8

Never thought you two would come back from that. Especially with him flouting Lukaku in your face.

The bond(age) is strong.

I have a very forgiving nature.

 

[Herbert]

Ferguson had an excellent scouting system in place but it seems that it's fallen into decay since he left.

Bebe, djemba djemba, oberton,taibi Anderson, kleberson maucho, fanjzhou, tosic,veron,Zaha,prunier, and I'm sure there's plenty more