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Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine
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<blockquote data-quote="an liathroid beag" data-source="post: 7087799" data-attributes="member: 18052"><p>Any public acknowledgment of the Ukrainian military’s ability to strike high-value targets deep inside Kremlin-controlled territory would confirm the ineffectiveness of Russia’s air defense systems and would further undermine the fighting spirit within the ranks of an invasion force that is already suffering from demoralization due to high losses. At the same time, there is something obsessive about Vladimir Putin’s apparent readiness to embrace even the most damaging of disinformation rather than admit Ukrainian victories. The Russian dictator has repeatedly preferred to portray his own troops as incompetent and has invited ridicule over nonsense tales of voluntary withdrawals rather than acknowledge the humiliating truth of defeat at the hands of a country he insists does not exist. Russia not accusing Ukraine of strike on Crimea airfield so as not to admit shortcomings of air defenses – ISW As his invasion approaches the half-year mark, Putin is now fast running out of excuses. Initial expectations of a quick and victorious war have long since given way to the reality of a brutal conflict against a determined and capable foe backed by the might of the democratic world. Despite deploying a large part of the Russian military’s available manpower, his armies have been fought to a virtual standstill while paying a terrible price in both men and machines. This poor performance has proved devastating for Moscow’s superpower pretensions. Indeed, it is safe to say that anyone still referring to Russia as the world’s number two army is almost certainly being sarcastic. The impact of this collapse in military prestige is already becoming apparent in Moscow’s old imperial backyard. Kazakhstan is now in open confrontation with the Kremlin and Azerbaijan no longer feels constrained by the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the South Caucasus. Tiny Lithuania recently defied Russia for weeks over the transit of goods to Kaliningrad, while even loyal Belarus has so far resisted intense Kremlin pressure to join the invasion of Ukraine. Unless Russia is able to transform its military fortunes in Ukraine, these negative trends will only intensify. More countries will lose their fear of the toothless Russian bear, while potential allies will begin to question the value of such a geopolitically and militarily compromised partner. Already resigned to an extended period of isolation from the Western world, Russia may find itself increasingly excluded from the top table of world affairs and reduced to a junior role in its unequal partnership with China. Putin’s perilous predicament means we could now be facing one of the most dangerous periods in modern European history as the Russo-Ukrainian War enters a potentially decisive phase. In the coming months, we should expect everything from desperate offensives and escalating terror tactics to energy cut-offs and nuclear blackmail. Nevertheless, as long as Ukraine’s Western allies can remain united in their support for the country, there is good reason to believe these efforts will ultimately fail. Putin’s criminal invasion has exposed the diminished reality behind the myth of Russian military might. Farcical talk of “goodwill gestures” and “accidental fires” merely serves to underline the point.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="an liathroid beag, post: 7087799, member: 18052"] Any public acknowledgment of the Ukrainian military’s ability to strike high-value targets deep inside Kremlin-controlled territory would confirm the ineffectiveness of Russia’s air defense systems and would further undermine the fighting spirit within the ranks of an invasion force that is already suffering from demoralization due to high losses. At the same time, there is something obsessive about Vladimir Putin’s apparent readiness to embrace even the most damaging of disinformation rather than admit Ukrainian victories. The Russian dictator has repeatedly preferred to portray his own troops as incompetent and has invited ridicule over nonsense tales of voluntary withdrawals rather than acknowledge the humiliating truth of defeat at the hands of a country he insists does not exist. Russia not accusing Ukraine of strike on Crimea airfield so as not to admit shortcomings of air defenses – ISW As his invasion approaches the half-year mark, Putin is now fast running out of excuses. Initial expectations of a quick and victorious war have long since given way to the reality of a brutal conflict against a determined and capable foe backed by the might of the democratic world. Despite deploying a large part of the Russian military’s available manpower, his armies have been fought to a virtual standstill while paying a terrible price in both men and machines. This poor performance has proved devastating for Moscow’s superpower pretensions. Indeed, it is safe to say that anyone still referring to Russia as the world’s number two army is almost certainly being sarcastic. The impact of this collapse in military prestige is already becoming apparent in Moscow’s old imperial backyard. Kazakhstan is now in open confrontation with the Kremlin and Azerbaijan no longer feels constrained by the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the South Caucasus. Tiny Lithuania recently defied Russia for weeks over the transit of goods to Kaliningrad, while even loyal Belarus has so far resisted intense Kremlin pressure to join the invasion of Ukraine. Unless Russia is able to transform its military fortunes in Ukraine, these negative trends will only intensify. More countries will lose their fear of the toothless Russian bear, while potential allies will begin to question the value of such a geopolitically and militarily compromised partner. Already resigned to an extended period of isolation from the Western world, Russia may find itself increasingly excluded from the top table of world affairs and reduced to a junior role in its unequal partnership with China. Putin’s perilous predicament means we could now be facing one of the most dangerous periods in modern European history as the Russo-Ukrainian War enters a potentially decisive phase. In the coming months, we should expect everything from desperate offensives and escalating terror tactics to energy cut-offs and nuclear blackmail. Nevertheless, as long as Ukraine’s Western allies can remain united in their support for the country, there is good reason to believe these efforts will ultimately fail. Putin’s criminal invasion has exposed the diminished reality behind the myth of Russian military might. Farcical talk of “goodwill gestures” and “accidental fires” merely serves to underline the point. [/QUOTE]
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