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Russia's unjustifiable war of aggression in Ukraine
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<blockquote data-quote="catcha" data-source="post: 7068539" data-attributes="member: 49798"><p><strong>Kazakhstan</strong> has been pursuing a policy of independence from Russia and maneuvering between Moscow and Beijing for several years. On the one hand, it is developing relations with the Kremlin, but they remain mainly in the declarative sphere, and in domestic politics, actions are taken against the Russian-speaking population. The turn towards Russia (a request for military intervention by the OSCE), which we saw during the winter during the riots and attempts to overthrow the government, is only an apparent move. Tokayev used the Russian army as a bogeyman for his own army to make them think that he had Moscow's support in his actions, and he was able to finally remove from power the clique of Nazarbayev who was the "eternal president-pensioner" and concentrated all power in his hands. Putin was quite surprised when he heard from Tokayev's mouth: "Thank you for your help and now ... Fuck off" and everything that the new president declared turned out to be a lie - the anti-Russian course will be maintained and even due to the weakness of the Russian Federation in Ukraine it has been intensified. The new government of Kazakhstan felt a moment of history to break out into independence with the perspective of a local power. Tokayev is aware of the weakness of the clan-party-kleptocratic government model typical of the countries of the region, therefore he is trying to lay the foundations of a modern politically active society (how long will the reform be adopted and how long it will be in his hand - another matter), which is to protect Kazakhstan against the return of authoritarianism and the growing influenced by China (anti-Chinese sentiment is strong in Kazakhstan). I expect an intensification of anti-Russian policy, as at present Moscow does not have the strength or means to exert political pressure on Nur Sultan (Astana). Currently, the only way for Russia to be able to put pressure on the Kazakhs is to block the oil port in Novorossiysk, "for technical reasons", where Kazakh oil flows to the world, but this is a problem to be solved - Tokayev has more hooks on the Russians than they do on him: Baikonur, New Silk Road . Export to India and Pakistan.</p><p></p><p><strong>Uzbekistan</strong> - this week there were fights in the eastern part of the country after the government of Mirzoev and his clique wanted to change the constitutions in a manner typical for the region: reset the counter of the president's term of office, give him additional powers, limit self-government and, above all, delete the provision on the possible secession of the autonomy of Karakalpuck. It is true that the region is a deserted salt desert formed after the drying of the Aral Lake, but it occupies 1/3 of the country.</p><p></p><p>It is worth paying attention to how Mirzojew reacted to the rebellion (another one in a decade): first he bloodily suppressed it and then withdrew from the constitutional changes back, indicating that on the one hand his position in power was inviolable and on the other he noticed that he initially promoted the model of exercising power (party-clan autarky) does not have a long-term raison d'être and does not preclude Kazakhstan to follow the path of liberalization. Attempts are now underway to find other methods of staying in power without such blatant violations of the law</p><p></p><p><strong>To sum up</strong>: Central Asia is one of the most inflammatory regions in the near future. Moscow's weakness will use local forces to reshuffle, be it on the inside or outside. Russia does not have the strength and means to be the main player and its actions will be limited to "damage control". The role of Beijing should not be overestimated - Beijing is not able to improvise quickly and the sleeping Russian mir completely undermined their vision of slowly taking over the Russian sphere of influence, all the more so now that the local factions that use anti-Chinese sentiment for their own purposes are gaining more and more importance. Back to Russia. The war in Ukraine accelerated the next phase of the collapse of the USSR - this is not about the physical collapse of Russia, but the fragmentation of Moscow's sphere of influence. In the first phase we had a loss of control over central Europe, in the second phase the physical disintegration of the USSR, a loss of control over the Baltic countries and a decline in importance in the Balkans. The third phase is the color revolutions (Georgia, Ukraine) and anti-Russian movements in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.</p><p></p><p>Now we have a fourth phase starting with Ukraine and spreading to Central Asia. The question is whether there will be a fifth and sixth phase of the collapse of the alliance, ending with the degeneration of the Russian Federation to the role of a middle class country playing in the second league.</p><p></p><p>And on PRoC in the topic about Ukraine every day Russian troll posts utter bullshit from Russian propaganda which in many occasions requires response as some other users will take it for granted without hesitation.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="catcha, post: 7068539, member: 49798"] [B]Kazakhstan[/B] has been pursuing a policy of independence from Russia and maneuvering between Moscow and Beijing for several years. On the one hand, it is developing relations with the Kremlin, but they remain mainly in the declarative sphere, and in domestic politics, actions are taken against the Russian-speaking population. The turn towards Russia (a request for military intervention by the OSCE), which we saw during the winter during the riots and attempts to overthrow the government, is only an apparent move. Tokayev used the Russian army as a bogeyman for his own army to make them think that he had Moscow's support in his actions, and he was able to finally remove from power the clique of Nazarbayev who was the "eternal president-pensioner" and concentrated all power in his hands. Putin was quite surprised when he heard from Tokayev's mouth: "Thank you for your help and now ... Fuck off" and everything that the new president declared turned out to be a lie - the anti-Russian course will be maintained and even due to the weakness of the Russian Federation in Ukraine it has been intensified. The new government of Kazakhstan felt a moment of history to break out into independence with the perspective of a local power. Tokayev is aware of the weakness of the clan-party-kleptocratic government model typical of the countries of the region, therefore he is trying to lay the foundations of a modern politically active society (how long will the reform be adopted and how long it will be in his hand - another matter), which is to protect Kazakhstan against the return of authoritarianism and the growing influenced by China (anti-Chinese sentiment is strong in Kazakhstan). I expect an intensification of anti-Russian policy, as at present Moscow does not have the strength or means to exert political pressure on Nur Sultan (Astana). Currently, the only way for Russia to be able to put pressure on the Kazakhs is to block the oil port in Novorossiysk, "for technical reasons", where Kazakh oil flows to the world, but this is a problem to be solved - Tokayev has more hooks on the Russians than they do on him: Baikonur, New Silk Road . Export to India and Pakistan. [B]Uzbekistan[/B] - this week there were fights in the eastern part of the country after the government of Mirzoev and his clique wanted to change the constitutions in a manner typical for the region: reset the counter of the president's term of office, give him additional powers, limit self-government and, above all, delete the provision on the possible secession of the autonomy of Karakalpuck. It is true that the region is a deserted salt desert formed after the drying of the Aral Lake, but it occupies 1/3 of the country. It is worth paying attention to how Mirzojew reacted to the rebellion (another one in a decade): first he bloodily suppressed it and then withdrew from the constitutional changes back, indicating that on the one hand his position in power was inviolable and on the other he noticed that he initially promoted the model of exercising power (party-clan autarky) does not have a long-term raison d'être and does not preclude Kazakhstan to follow the path of liberalization. Attempts are now underway to find other methods of staying in power without such blatant violations of the law [B]To sum up[/B]: Central Asia is one of the most inflammatory regions in the near future. Moscow's weakness will use local forces to reshuffle, be it on the inside or outside. Russia does not have the strength and means to be the main player and its actions will be limited to "damage control". The role of Beijing should not be overestimated - Beijing is not able to improvise quickly and the sleeping Russian mir completely undermined their vision of slowly taking over the Russian sphere of influence, all the more so now that the local factions that use anti-Chinese sentiment for their own purposes are gaining more and more importance. Back to Russia. The war in Ukraine accelerated the next phase of the collapse of the USSR - this is not about the physical collapse of Russia, but the fragmentation of Moscow's sphere of influence. In the first phase we had a loss of control over central Europe, in the second phase the physical disintegration of the USSR, a loss of control over the Baltic countries and a decline in importance in the Balkans. The third phase is the color revolutions (Georgia, Ukraine) and anti-Russian movements in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Now we have a fourth phase starting with Ukraine and spreading to Central Asia. The question is whether there will be a fifth and sixth phase of the collapse of the alliance, ending with the degeneration of the Russian Federation to the role of a middle class country playing in the second league. And on PRoC in the topic about Ukraine every day Russian troll posts utter bullshit from Russian propaganda which in many occasions requires response as some other users will take it for granted without hesitation. [/QUOTE]
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