People on the ground often see recessions coming before the more "learned"
I'd a friend working construction in 2007 that told me "this country is fucked". I thought he was mad tbh. Bertie was telling people to not talk down the economy at the time.
I don't watch much news anymore (for my mental health), so I don’t know if there's a recession coming or not, but it wouldn't surprise me with the way inflation has been for the last few years.