Did you think he was going to win in 2016?
People thought I was a lunatic when I said he was going to beat Clinton.
He beat Clinton by calling her crooked Hiliary, he doesn't even need to mention Biden, because everyone can agree that Biden is too old and dithery to serve in the role.
The Democrats need a new candidate, or its 4 more years of bullshit imo.
Even if you think Biden would edge it, why take that risk?!
Did you think that Trump was going to win in 2020? Same age issue then. And since then, Biden has enacted, as president, a great number of good policies. As for aged and dithery, since we have watched Trump become more and more incoherent and watched him fall asleep every day in court, I would say that the age issue has at least evened out, I don't know what you are seeing there, but we have been seeing a lot less of the “Biden old/Trump not old” advertising here for the last six months.
The Republicans have manufactured a bunch of fake crises, like an "open border", "wokeness", election fraud (I hope you don't think that Trump won last time), "deep state", "weaponized" law enforcement (against Trump) etc. Of course, the people who believe this nonsense will vote for Trump. But against this, aside from Trump's incoherence, the hard Right is trying to push through a very unpopular national abortion ban, has been attacking birth control itself, has been pushing right wing Christian nationalism, isolationism, etc etc.
To me, some of the significant "tells" is that the Republicans are not raising the money that the Democrats are raising, that much of the party money they are raising is going to Trump rather than to the down ballot Republicans, that we are not seeing people show up in any numbers to support him in his court cases, etc. Then there's the court cases themselves. They definitely are affecting his support in a bad way (for him).
So I don't think that Trump has it in the bag.